Very good, and what those of us who had worked with contracts largely thought - that the story was rather messier than the 'incompetent Commission brings EU to verge of collapse' suggested by those who always say 'incompetent Commission brings EU to verge of collapse'
Classic EU Commission playbook - threaten those seen to be in some way in breach, in the hope of being able to deliver a better result. Often successful but quite possibly at a cost of both public reputation and business innovation.
As for the UK, its been said plenty of times that there are opportunities in regulatory nimbleness, though they are each marginal economically because it is about doing the same as the EU but quicker. But also, the vulnerability to the big neighbour is obvious.
The vulnerability to a larger market next door should be obvious but is comically denied by the hyper partisan (both ways). Realistically the UK will have to learn to dance around this, which is why our trade and foreign policy must start with the EU and neighbourhood.
Still amazing that we don't appear to have one strong relationship with an EU Member State, or any particular interest in having one. A problem that like refusing the EU full diplomatic status will come back to cost us.
NB public reporting about the awfulness of the EU is a given. But government pandering to that isn't actually going to improve our economy given that is our neighbourhood. We need to remember what we used to be good at, diplomacy.

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More from @DavidHenigUK

30 Jan
For maybe the last time today, but probably not the last time this week, crying the EU is horrid or claiming it is about to break up (those opposites that Brexiteers repeatedly claim without noticing the problem) does not mean the UK doesn't need an EU policy or trade.
One of the biggest challenges for the UK outside the EU was always going to be the difficulty of managing relations, not between sovereign equals but between a larger bloc, and a large economy. It is noticeable how little thought Brexit partisans have ever given to this.
At the moment we're winning one over the EU (vaccinations) and losing one (economy, with loss of exports). But it is worth noting how this competition only applies to UK v EU, not Australia or Japan. Geography. This is our neighbourhood.
Read 5 tweets
30 Jan
Quite so. Though I'm afraid the takes of the Brexit partisans this morning are still the imminent collapse of the EU, the Northern Ireland protocol, and probably the entirety of Europe.

To be entirely fair the UK government have been rather more considered. May it continue.
The big reminder from yesterday is that there is no relationship more important to the UK than that with the EU. Because of geography, size of trade, and risks if it goes wrong. That's been a fact of life for a thousand years (as Europe, not just the EU!).
And for the EU a reminder that relations with neighbours are a long term weakness, responsibility split between members and the Commission, a lack of vision, carelessness, and overbearing attitude all causing problems.
Read 4 tweets
29 Jan
A bad move I suspect the EU will come to regret.
The usual reminder to annoy partisans that more than one thing can be true at a time. AstraZeneca can have failed to deliver, the Commission handle it badly and panic, the EU still not be on the verge of collapse, the UK successful on vaccines, and still not guaranteed success.
Oh, and a supportive media or at least a very good media management operation *really* helps a government.
Read 13 tweets
29 Jan
Many warning signs should be flashing that Ministers will see one success (so far) and use how they think that worked as a straitjacket for a future economic policy of self sufficiency at odds with how the global economy actually works. When it was (again) global collaboration.
In so far as we can tell so far (and we can't, but let's try) the UK's vaccine success has been based on offering large sums of money to multinationals to set up here, and using trans-national research networks in support. I suspect that model is only marginally transferrable.
Attracting the multinationals who direct global supply chains is important, but there is inevitably global competition and we just opted to put barriers up to a lot of trade multinationals care about. Though less so in pharmaceuticals.
Read 7 tweets
28 Jan
Small business in particular struggling with new Brexit red tape. Entirely predictable, and a function of a world trade system distorted against smaller traders. Stay with me a short while as Brexit threadmeister and story author @pmdfoster may say... 1/ ft.com/content/13f0f1…
The nub of the issue is the extra costs for most exports, whether this is paperwork or meeting different regulatory requirements. A fixed cost per exported load inevitably adds a higher percentage cost to small than larger business... and they may lack expertise. 2/
You'll note that in the EU, with virtually no paperwork or differing regulations, the costs of exports are similar for smaller and large companies - though even there there is a big company bias, because who can afford to lobby for friendly regulations? 3/
Read 10 tweets
27 Jan
Feeling like those who jumped on the AstraZeneca bandwagon did so unwisely. Many repeat offenders.

Starts to feel like an entirely normal case of over promising and contractual ambiguity, made toxic by urgency, heightened emotion and regional politics.
You might be surprised how ambiguous government - business contracts can be (and trade agreements for that matter). And therefore that you never want to go to dispute if you can help it.
From a UK point of view it would be wise not to assume the EU is always wrong, and not to make a habit of telling them how wrong they are. Because there's always the risk this will come back to hurt us.
Read 4 tweets

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