Many warning signs should be flashing that Ministers will see one success (so far) and use how they think that worked as a straitjacket for a future economic policy of self sufficiency at odds with how the global economy actually works. When it was (again) global collaboration.
https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1355093657041461249
In so far as we can tell so far (and we can't, but let's try) the UK's vaccine success has been based on offering large sums of money to multinationals to set up here, and using trans-national research networks in support. I suspect that model is only marginally transferrable.
Attracting the multinationals who direct global supply chains is important, but there is inevitably global competition and we just opted to put barriers up to a lot of trade multinationals care about. Though less so in pharmaceuticals.
Are we even talking self-sufficiency or attracting global multinationals? All in, rather premature to declare success of vaccination, still less put our entire economic strategy on it. Perhaps mostly indicative of government desperation for successes and economic policy?
This, as well, to be considered. ft.com/content/e3f8ee…
Trade restrictions are in vogue right now though. No country has raised trade barriers so much while proclaiming free trade support than the UK, but the combination is hardly unknown. Still seems likely to have economic consequences though.
One could even suggest pharmaceuticals as the perfect post-Brexit sector, where global trade barriers are lower both for the goods and services elements, and the UK has existing strengths in both research and the NHS. Other sectors will be different.
A small tip - there is not going to be one "answer" for how the UK economy will perform after Brexit. Global trade and value chains are complex enough, then there's everything from productivity to investment to consider. And a crisis allows greater state involvement than usual.
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