EXC: Newsnight has been given exclusive access to one of the biggest studies yet undertaken to measure how the pandemic has affected children's education.
Study of over 5900 Year 2 pupils across 169 representative schools in England by @EducEndowFoundn.
Findings are worrying.
Findings
-2020 Y2 cohort are "significantly behind" where they should be in English and Maths.
-On average pupils around two months behind.
-Gap between richest and poorest students now at a very significant seven months.
-This is only taking into account lockdown 1.
-Some children had even apparently forgotten how to engage with the tests. There were three times as many children who weren't able to engage with the tests at all than would be typical.
To repeat, this only addresses the lost time from spring. Much of the lost time in autumn (variable across the country) and lockdown this winter will not be included in the results of the study, so we can expect the problem to get worse.
The concern I'm picking up from teachers is that the government tries to "catch up" via a cram it all in approach. Try and do the normal curriculum in less time and simply overwhelm children in the process, many of whom are completely out the rhythm of learning.
Much better, some teachers argue to use this as a chance to remodel what primary education in particular is offering, moving away from testing and rigidity, focus on physical and mental health to begin with, then do less curriculum but better. Either way big thinking is required.
Much more of this to come, including my full report on Newsnight, BBC 2, 1045pm.
Losing count of the number of people who seem extraordinarily blase about the prospect of our children losing a lot of school time. "But lots of countries start schooling later!", they say. That's a red herring. Here's why.
Firstly, yes many European countries start schooling later. But in the main they also have comprehensive and well funded preschool childcare systems which actually look a lot like our Reception and Year 1. There is a world of difference between what kids in those countries...
...do in those preschool systems and just sitting at home. They socialise. They learn. They have communal experiences. That isn't what our children are doing now.
Secondly, all children are off not just early years so what relevance is that anyway?
Thirdly, THIS IS EMBEDDING ALREADY PROFOUND EDUCATIONAL INEQUALITIES. I am deeply disturbed by the gap between rich and poor children in educational attainment in normal circumstances- this is making it worse. Disadvantaged kids are, guess what, already deeply...
...disadvantaged. Much is stacked against them. We should all be deeply disturbed about their task being made harder.
Fourthly, talk to any head and they'll tell you how worried they've been about safeguarding, how many children are slipping through the net, whose home lives..
...are becoming more, not less chaotic. School closure isn't good for any kid but it much worse for the most vulnerable.
You can think that schools needed to close, whilst also recognising the consequences of this lost year and that it could be calamitous for parts of this...
...generation.
And we should be worried about it and thinking about we tackle it.
This crisis has many elements to it. But for me, its most acute are these.
The deaths we're seeing primarily among the old.
And the significant loss of education, opportunities and socialisation for our youngest.
Ultimately both will need to be tackled with the same urgency.
These children and young people have done nothing wrong- simply born at a time when the pandemic wheel of misfortune stopped. The moral imperative to ensure that their life chances don't suffer as a result is profound.
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Absolutely extraordinary. A trade border on the island of Ireland has been created at the stroke of a pen in Brussels- and yet no-one there thought to tell anyone in Belfast or Dublin.
Throughout the Brexit process there was (justifiable) criticism from Dublin and Brussels that the British government seemed insensitive to the particular problems of Northern Ireland and the problems around the border. Now the shoe is firmly on the other foot.
That said, it is possible to think that the EU is behaving very badly but also recognise that the post-Brexit relationship (and how new it is) does build in a certain instability in the EU/UK relationship...
Spent a bit of time today with the manager of the very first home I went to in the crisis, in Hove on the south coast, back at the very start of April
The picture she and her colleagues paint isn't a good one.
For a start, as I reported yesterday, deaths really are on the up.
They were catastrophically high in the spring. But lockdown did cause them to fall quite sharply. Guidance actually received by homes (in many cases a long time coming) helped too
Having been in abeyance until late on- late December, they have started to rise again quite sharply. At 1705 last week. That's up by 32% on the week before and 157% on a month ago.
PM confirms that when Parliament returns from recess in the week commencing 22nd February government will publish its plan "for taking the country out of lockdown."
"Our aim will be to set out a gradual phased approach to removing the restrictions in a sustainable way guided by the principles we've observed throughout the pandemic."
NEW: Boris Johnson confirms that schools in England will not be reopening for all pupils immediately after February half term.
Keir Starmer on passing the 100,000 Covid death threshold: “The question on everyone’s lips is why. The Prime Minister must have thought about that a lot. Could he tell us why he thinks the United Kingdom has ended up with a death toll of 100,000- the highest number in Europe?”
Starmer might have added that it’s also the worst death rate in the world as of yesterday.
PM: “We mourn every death in this pandemic and we share the grief of all those who have been bereaved. Let the House be in no doubt that I and the government take full responsibility for all the actions we’ve taken.”
NEW: It's official. More than 100,000 people in the UK have now died from Covid-19, according to govt figures.
100,162 died within 28 days of a positive test.
103,602 deaths with Covid on the death certificate.
Over 5x what Patrick Vallance said would be a "good" outcome.
Remember, this is likely a conservative estimate.
If we look at excess deaths (more reliable measure) in England alone, if we look at 2020 and the first two weeks of 2021, total deaths are up 15% on the average, or by 80,704.
With these new figures UK is currently the worst performing country in the world in terms of deaths per million. Should be treated with a bit of caution as a result of varying reporting methods/UK having new variant but no doubt the UK is among the very worst performing nations.
Kate Green (Lab Shadow Education Sec) notes that Gavin Williamson hasn’t come to the House to answer the Urgent Question on schools reopening and that Nick Gibb is answering instead: "I am more used to seeing him [Gibb] than the Secretary of State.”
Gibb being repeatedly asked what the plan/criteria for school reopening is. Gibb replying that they’re “consulting with stakeholders” and awaiting scientific advice. Pressed on what the levels of hospitalisation etc has to be, Gibb says they’re relying on scientific advice.
Lot of pressure from the Tory benches for government to explain what the exact threshold is.