new results just released by @Novavax for their UK and South African SARS-CoV-2 vaccine trials ir.novavax.com/news-releases/…

NVX-CoV2373 contains a recombinant Spike glycoprotein maintained in prefusion conformation with 2 proline substitutions nature.com/articles/s4146… 1/n
the UK arm enrolled more than 15,000 participants aged 18-84 with a primary endpoint of PCR confirmed symptomatic COVID-19

62 cases were observed overall, 56 in the placebo group and 6 in the NVX-CoV2373 group, giving an efficacy of 89.3% 2/n
the researchers also carried out a post-hoc analysis looking at efficacy for particular strains

they estimated an efficacy of 95.6% against the original COVID-19 strain and 85.6% against the UK variant strain B.1.1.7 3/n
the South African arm was smaller, enrolling 4,400 participants

results are reported for HIV -ve participants

29 participants who received the placebo developed infection, and 15 of those that received NVX-CoV2373, giving an efficacy of 60% 4/n
of the 44 participants that received a diagnosis of PCR confirmed COVID-19, 27 had samples available, and 25 of these were the 501Y.V2 variant

suggestive of reduced efficacy of vaccine against 501Y.V2 variant, consistent with laboratory studies e.g. medrxiv.org/content/10.110… 5/n
and also with recent release from @moderna_tx investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/…

which shows a six-fold reduction in neutralising titres for B.1.351 (501Y.V2) variant relative to prior variants

although in this study titres were predicted to still be protective @BarneyGrahamMD 6/n
this is the first real world, clinical trial data looking at the effectiveness of a Spike glycoprotein based vaccine against the 501Y.V2 variant 7/n
some key questions:
1. How will the immune response (B and T cell) to the @Novavax Spike sequence compare to that used by @pfizer, @moderna_tx or @AstraZeneca as regards new variants? @jbloom_lab 8/n
2. What will data from the @JNJGlobalHealth trial, also from SA (due to come out next week) show? @virusmonologues 9/n
as ever, a lot more new, non-peer reviewed data in a rapidly evolving field

but enough to give us food for thought

and remind us of key steps we need to take:
-interrupt transmission & bring down case numbers
-facilitate immunisation

to tackle this GLOBAL crisis @JeremyFarrar

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More from @Williams_T_C

30 Jan
what a difference a month makes in a pandemic

Dec '20: lab studies show potential for SARS-CoV-2 mutations to impact antibody neutralisation

Jan '21: clinical trials @Novavax & @JNJGlobalHealth show 501Y.V2 appears to impact vaccine effectiveness, confirming predictions 🧵1/n Image
interested in the science underlying this?

if so my Comment with Wendy Burgers @virusmonologues is out today @LancetRespirMed thelancet.com/journals/lanre…

thankyou to @jbloom_lab for insightful comments on the piece 2/n
first important message is to highlight we are in incredibly fortunate position with SARS-CoV-2 vaccines

multiplicity of approaches to choose from (mRNA, Spike protein, adenovirus vector)

all of which show efficacy >50% even with the 501Y.V2 variant virological.org/t/mutations-ar… 3/n Image
Read 17 tweets
29 Jan
nice piece on the professional cycling landscape for the year ahead by @jeremycwhittle

do "athletes merit preferential treatment because of the cultural importance of sport to public mental health and wellbeing"?

and should they get priority in the vaccination queue 1/4
to allow sporting events to take place this summer?

Israel Start-Up Nation, a cycling team, already in "close talks with the Israeli Ministry of Health to assess whether, if there are vaccines available after the main programme takes place, the team can be allocated some.” 2/4
and if athletes merit preferential treatment, should other cultural figures (actors, musicians) get preferential treatment too?

I would argue not, but interested to see what @Twitter thinks 3/4 Image
Read 5 tweets
20 Jan
the data we've all been waiting for

is 501Y.V2 is less susceptible to neutralisation by convalescent sera than the original SARS-CoV-2 D614G lineage seen in South Africa?

short answer: yes 1/5

biorxiv.org/content/10.110…
panel a is 3 pie charts, sera from 44 patients

left pie chart shows neutralisation of original D614G variant by convalescent sera: dark blue= high neutralisation titres, and light blue = lower titres 2/5
right pie chart shows neutralisation of 501Y.V2 variant by same convalescent sera samples: red means loss of neutralising activity (red/black in columns below)

this loss is seen in 21/44 (48%) of total patient samples; only 3 samples retain high neutralising activity 3/5
Read 5 tweets
16 Jan
our study on the indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on children now out @ADC_BMJ adc.bmj.com/content/early/…

many positives, in terms of our findings and how the paper came together

but also raises serious considerations for clinicians, researchers and government 🧵 1/n
first of all, the findings

at the start of the pandemic, we were concerned that radical shake-ups to health-care seeking behaviour and provision

might lead to delayed presentations & higher risk of injuries, accidental & non-accidental

& increased harm to children 2/n
(a reminder of the timeline for the first few months of the pandemic in Scotland) 3/n
Read 22 tweets
8 Jan
learning from our mistakes, and taking lessons from those who have handled this pandemic best

a Trainspotting inspired🧵1/n

at the start of this pandemic, the WHO and others advised that restricting international travel was not an effective way to stop the spread of SARS-CoV-2
who.int/news-room/arti… 2/n
we now know that this was wrong 3/n
Read 33 tweets
3 Jan
could a non-segmented RNA virus rapidly evolve to evade a polyclonal immune response, rendering a vaccine ineffective?

I think if you'd asked the average RNA virus researcher a year ago, the answer would have been no

but then again, 2020 wasn't an average year ... 🧵1/n
what has been shown is that if you grow a virus in culture in the presence of a *monoclonal* antibody (mAb)

you will select for mutations that render the virus resistant to that mAb

this has been shown in the lab for measles, polio, and RSV sciencedirect.com/science/articl… 2/n
and also clinically for HIV doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa… @NEJM and RSV doi.org/10.1093/cid/ci… @IDSAInfo 3/n
Read 19 tweets

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