I might be missing something here, but the roll returns for silver and gold don't suggest that these assets have been heavily shorted, either today or over the past fourteen years.

interactive.researchaffiliates.com/asset-allocati…

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Darren 🥚

Darren 🥚 Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @ReformedTrader

28 Jan
1/ Exploiting Closed-End Fund Discounts: A Systematic Examination of Alphas (Patro, Piccotti, Wu)

"We estimate CEF expected returns as a function of the history of premiums and current premium. Previous studies understated the value of this information."

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf… Image
2/ "We employ current information to forecast future returns using the parametric model estimated with prior data. By allowing 𝛼𝑖 and 𝛽𝑖 to be freely estimated parameters, we consider valuable information in the premium mean-reversion speeds, which previous studies ignore." ImageImage
3/ "CEF fund type classifications are obtained from Morningstar.

"In 2011, the mean market value of equity was $370 million for domestic CEFs, $336 million for foreign CEFs, and $140 million for miscellaneous CEFs." ImageImageImage
Read 18 tweets
28 Jan
Can WSB control enough capital to create volatility in the commodity and currency markets?
Interesting: I was called a 'geeza' and unfollowed after posting this poll
There is an interesting movement in politics... what something means no longer seems to be tied to what the author but to the reader. (This leads to a statement being labeled as offensive due listeners' perception rather than the speaker's intent.)
Read 7 tweets
28 Jan
1/ The Go-Go Years: The Drama and Crashing Finale of Wall Street's Bullish 60s (John Brooks)

“As a people, we would rather face chaos, making potsfull of short term money, than maintain order and sanity by [turning away new business] and profiting less.”

amazon.com/Go-Go-Years-Cr…
2/ "Interest rates were at near-record highs, strangling new housing construction and making industrial expansion impractical. The dollar was in trouble, worth many billions more than the national gold hoard. One hundred or more Wall Street brokerage firms were near failure.
3/ "In May 1970, an equally-weighted portfolio was worth half of what it would have been worth at the start of 1969.

"The high flyers that had led the market of 1967 and 1968—conglomerates, computer leasers, far-out electronics companies, franchisers—were precipitously down.
Read 8 tweets
26 Jan
Paper 1 (abstract): Based on lots of assumptions and this particular data set, we find that lockdowns don't work.

Paper 2 (abstract): Based on lots of other assumptions and a different data set, we find that lockdowns do work and strongly recommend them as policy interventions.
Paper 3 (abstract): Based on our own arbitrary criteria, we find that lockdowns may have been somewhat effective but were not worth the cost.

Paper 4 (abstract): We find that lockdowns were somewhat effective in saving lives and strongly recommend them as policy interventions.
Read 4 tweets
26 Jan
For the record, stocks with high short interest typically have poor returns... the past year has been an exception to the rule.

Why Do Short Interest Levels Predict Stock Returns?


The Loan Fee Anomaly: A Short Seller's Best Ideas
Borrowing Fees & Expected Stock Returns


Short-Selling Risk


Why Do Price & Volatility Information from the Options Market Predict Stock Returns?


Term Structure of Short Selling Costs
Read 4 tweets
25 Jan
GME Jan 2022 80 strike
call: $36.00 mid
put: $47.50 mid

BBBY Jan 2022 32 strike
call: $10.45 mid
put: $11.94 mid
Read 8 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!