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Martin Juhl Profile picture
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29 Jan, 5 tweets, 2 min read
A list of restrictions introduced in Sweden

-Restriction on restaurants (max 4)
-high schools closed
-Restrictions on shops
-Masks recommended in public transportation
-Border control to Denmark
-No alcohol after 8pm
-Restrictions on gatherings (max 8)

nyheder.tv2.dk/udland/2020-12…
From mid-November
From early November
Mobility data also shows that Sweden is not moving around a lot more compared to other Scandinavian countries, and actually less than Finland ImageImageImageImage
In some areas of Sweden, primary public school classes for the older kids level 7-9 have also closed in certain periods

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More from @MartinJuhl2

Martin Juhl Profile picture
28 Jan
Population Fatality Rate (PFR) comparison of COVID-19 vs seasonal influenza (Average flu season)

PFR is how many deaths out of the entire country population

Current Covid-19 deaths vs historic flu deaths
1/x Image
Population Fatality Rate (PFR) comparison of COVID-19 vs seasonal influenza (worst flu season in recent years)
2/x Image
The median R value for seasonal influenza was 1.28

bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.11…

R0 value of SARS-CoV-2 is estimated at 2.5

thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/…

Herd immunity threshold (HIT) = 1 - 1/R0

Flu HIT = 22%
SARS-CoV-2 HIT = 60%

3/x ImageImageImage
Read 6 tweets
Martin Juhl Profile picture
26 Jan
Comparing the Covid-19 deaths to influenza deaths in Sweden

Sweden have had between 300-1100 flu deaths per year since 2015
1/x
Sweden now have 11,247 Covid-19 deaths and around 15% infected

Covid-19 is thus already 10x worse than the worst flu season in recent years (2017-18) and 37x worse than the mildest (2015-16)
Graph
@Marco_Piani

2/x
Sweden’s current Population Fatality Rate (PFR) for Covid-19 is >0.1%, while for influenza it has been 0.010-0.0029%
3/x
Other countries
Read 4 tweets
Martin Juhl Profile picture
26 Jan
Compilation on recent assessments from various sources using different models to provide an early estimates on relative and current reproductive number & transmissibility of the new B.1.1.7 Variant of Concern
1/x
@Peter_R_Hansen B.1.1.7 relative reproductive number ≈ 1.43 times larger. (generation time 4.7) thus 43% more infectious

Estimation for 1 day = 1.08 [CI 1.07-1.09] (8% pr day)

Estimation for 7 days 1.71
2/x
@SSI_dk @henrik_ullum
Cluster B.1.1.7 is clearly more contagious:
Increased relative reproductive number
SSI 1.2-1.5
3/x
Read 12 tweets
Martin Juhl Profile picture
26 Jan
New Danish study out comparing quick tests to PCR tests

Better late than never, but really wished this had been done earlier (back in October 2020)

➡️12th October


➡️17th October


➡️5th November
The overall sensitivity and specificity of the antigen test were 69.7% and 99.5%, the positive and negative predictive values were 87.0% and 98.5%. Ct values were significantly higher among individuals with false negative antigen tests compared to true pos medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
Results very much in line with what was shared here 5th November.
Antigen quick tests have the benefit of speed, which is very important contact tracing and isolation and can help keep society more open and well as and easy way to protect the elderly
Read 5 tweets
Martin Juhl Profile picture
25 Jan
Currently, some positive signs coming out of Israel.

Although, If one compared to other countries, which are also in lockdown, cases are dropping at same rate, therefore a bit early to separate lockdown vs vaccination effect
1/6 Image
No decline in seven-day rolling average of new deaths (per 100k) yet
2/6 Image
But, If one zooms in on the 60+ vaccinated population & compare to the subsection that was vaccinated just before Christmas (4wks ago) a significant vaccine effect in relation to hospitalization is observed (see caveats tweet)
3/6
 dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9…

Image
Read 6 tweets
Martin Juhl Profile picture
24 Jan
Quick thread on recent data regarding

➡️ Herd Immunity Threshold (HIT)
➡️ Immunity induced by infection
➡️ Case story from Manaus, Brazil
➡️ Immunity from vaccination
1/x
Here are a list of places with a total of 40-76% infected:
Manaus (76%)
Mumbai (75%)
indiatoday.in/coronavirus-ou……
Iquitos (71%), Ecuador (45%), Karachi (~40%), Ischgl (~40%), & NYC (40%)
2/x
Manaus, Brazil was thought to have hit 76% of all had been infected in spring

Science Paper: "Three-quarters attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 in the Brazilian Amazon during a largely unmitigated epidemic"
3/x
 science.sciencemag.org/content/371/65… Image
Read 14 tweets

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