The overall sensitivity and specificity of the antigen test were 69.7% and 99.5%, the positive and negative predictive values were 87.0% and 98.5%. Ct values were significantly higher among individuals with false negative antigen tests compared to true pos medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
Results very much in line with what was shared here 5th November.
Antigen quick tests have the benefit of speed, which is very important contact tracing and isolation and can help keep society more open and well as and easy way to protect the elderly
Contact tracing
1: Speed is all-important
2: Quick test can help (quicktest close contacts)
3: utilize multiplex test for screening for B.1.1.7 and prioritize
4: understand & track back to superspreder and get them stopped
Compilation on recent assessments from various sources using different models to provide an early estimates on relative and current reproductive number & transmissibility of the new B.1.1.7 Variant of Concern
1/x
@Peter_R_Hansen B.1.1.7 relative reproductive number ≈ 1.43 times larger. (generation time 4.7) thus 43% more infectious
Estimation for 1 day = 1.08 [CI 1.07-1.09] (8% pr day)
Currently, some positive signs coming out of Israel.
Although, If one compared to other countries, which are also in lockdown, cases are dropping at same rate, therefore a bit early to separate lockdown vs vaccination effect 1/6
No decline in seven-day rolling average of new deaths (per 100k) yet 2/6
But, If one zooms in on the 60+ vaccinated population & compare to the subsection that was vaccinated just before Christmas (4wks ago) a significant vaccine effect in relation to hospitalization is observed (see caveats tweet) 3/6 dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9…
➡️ Herd Immunity Threshold (HIT)
➡️ Immunity induced by infection
➡️ Case story from Manaus, Brazil
➡️ Immunity from vaccination
1/x
Here are a list of places with a total of 40-76% infected:
Manaus (76%)
Mumbai (75%) indiatoday.in/coronavirus-ou……
Iquitos (71%), Ecuador (45%), Karachi (~40%), Ischgl (~40%), & NYC (40%)
Manaus, Brazil was thought to have hit 76% of all had been infected in spring
Science Paper: "Three-quarters attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 in the Brazilian Amazon during a largely unmitigated epidemic" 3/x science.sciencemag.org/content/371/65…
Den spanske syge, influenza pandemien i 1918-1919, kom i tre bølger.
Det menes i følge bogen "The Great Influenza", at den første bølge var en mildere form, og efter mutation og "passage" gennem flere personer, blev mere dødelig