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David Henig Profile picture
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31 Jan, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Headline is definitely, categorically, 100% untrue. I await the report on which the story is based, but the primary reason we do not have a trade deal with the US is because Brexit was delayed. The secondary reason is the US isn't that fond of trade deals. thetimes.co.uk/article/us-tra…
Then of course there is the UK sensitivity on US food. So a trade deal was never going to be easy, plus the US hasn't completed a full new trade deal since 2012.

But also even the Sunday Times story suggests Brexit was also an issue in the US. So let us wait for the report.
But in general the reason we haven't got loads of new trade deals is that trade deals are complicated and take time. But it doesn't help that ministers and trade officials outside the UK are baffled by our Ministers sheer lack of reality on trade issues.
Indeed.

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More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig Profile picture
1 Feb
The first is not geographically possible. The second is limited. The third is a slogan with no meaning.
Realistic CPTPP take. Of marginal economic benefit given that value chains of production remain mostly regional and provisions are limited in services and non-tariff barriers. But these should be our trade allies against the big players.
There is a big gap between the UK government's trade policy priorities and those of business. That's not healthy. Government persuading trade associations to make false boosterist statements to keep a place at the table doesn't help. More on this soon.
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
1 Feb
My first @ECIPE paper of the year is out today - on how Global Value Chains now dominate trade flows in all sectors and what it means. It is short and accessible, so you can read it all. But there must always be the twitter version, so here goes... ecipe.org/publications/g…
So Global Value Chains is just about cars right? 30,000 components going into one finished car. But actually it is widespread in all sectors, vaccinations represent global chains of activity led by pharma companies, supermarkets, football clubs, app stores, you name it. Image
Why global value chains? Basically companies have the technology and information to combine goods and servives from around the world, and in a competitive global economy they need to optimise this. But management of complexity comes at a cost. Image
Read 8 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
1 Feb
Reading this it seems the Scottish fishing fleet are unlikely ever to be happy with any arrangements, which might not be the message they were hoping to pass on. politico.eu/article/scotla…
Extra costs whether for fishing fleets or manufacturers trading with the EU are here to stay. It is unfortunately to say the least that neither major political party is prepared to admit this. reuters.com/article/us-bri…
Some eye watering figures here, such as 43 certified documents per truck going to Ireland. But again Ireland seems to be more prepared with capacity on direct routes to the EU rapidly increasing. The cost of denial in the UK? politico.eu/article/uk-ire…
Read 8 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
31 Jan
Thinks. For all the complex analysis of why the UK has done so well on vaccinations to date, could a simpler reason be a PM always in favour of big and quick spending on projects finally finding one where that was the right answer?
Developing the Johnson spending money on vaccinations theme, most people have no idea how resistant the Treasury is to spending money, how many processes are required, how long it takes. Good thing much of the time. But covid vaccination might have needed spend spend spend.
And yes there were good people on the vaccination programme, but we have plenty of skilled people on all manner of subjects, as do other countries. It isn't usually the lack of skills that hold you back.
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
31 Jan
Tariff reduction has not been a route to growth for at least 30 years on account of tariffs no longer being particularly high. We really should be doing better than shallow deals replicating existing deals we have with the same countries.
For a UK Cabinet Minister to say that our EU deal means "we can trade freely" is trade and economic illiteracy. That this comes from the Secretary of State for Trade is appalling. A 19th or 20th century trade policy for a 21st century world.
It should be noted that business shares these concerns about UK trade policy focusing on the wrong things but as previously reported with regard to the EU deal feels they will be frozen out from meetings if they ever say so. Suffice to say this is not a healthy state of affairs.
Read 5 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
31 Jan
This potential benefit list from CPTPP is not the longest and is still misleading. Those Malaysian whisky tariffs - emilimated over 15 years (if they don't seek any specific exemption for UK). Those rules of origin benefits? Only apply to import / export to CPTPP countries.
Here's my more realistic take on CPTPP. Economic gains limited, but politically in terms of trade this makes some sort of sense, these are likely allies. DIT doesn't say this, presumably the idea of Australia or Canada as our equal upsets them.
As previously noted agriculture interests in Australia and New Zealand expect us to reach generous agreements in WTO talks and bilaterals before acceding to CPTPP. So this isn't a definite. Oh and Australia wants to know if we'll allow hormone treated beef beeflambnz.com/news-views/uk-…
Read 10 tweets

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