This study is important, and could possibly shed some additional light on why some studies haven't found #COVID19 spread in #Schools at higher levels.
Could the flaw be in our contact tracing methods and subsequently under testing? Let's explore. 🧵 cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/7…
This study, like others I've elevated, found that #SARSCoV2 was spreading in contacts less than 15 minutes, and while eating (and other unmasked), less than 5 minutes.
If we keep defining close contact as 15 minutes, we're excluding those who has shorter contacts, especially during unmasked activities, like school breakfast and lunch. Those students & teachers/staff aren't being informed that they may have been exposed, not quarantined...
and if they become a case, aren't being linked back to the exposure that may have occurred at school in a shorter than 15 minute in interval.
The NFL had resources to utilize technology to aid in contact tracing. They refined their definition of highrisk contact and were able to better determine circumstances that placed people at risk for exposure.
They found any mask removal to be high risk, even for a short drink
Imagine the number quarantined from school if we used the NFL's criteria.
Think about the Wisconsin school study and the 184 cases they were unable to link to school spread.
Could the NFLs criteria have helped?
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My thoughts on the study from Wisconsin schools- a 🧵
"COVID-19 Cases and Transmission in 17 K–12 Schools — Wood County, Wisconsin, August 31–November 29, 2020 | MMWR" cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/7…
About a week ago I mentioned that the studies we have on Covid in schools were not well done.
The recent CDC study based on Wisconsin schools is the best I've seen so far.
It describes mitigation strategies & tracks community positivity rates & school positivity rates.
Mitigation- mask wearing in & outdoors, not just cohorting children, but basically assigning close contacts and keeping those as the only close contacts throughout the entire day (I'm imagining this means you sit in class and lunch next to the same person).
My thoughts about Covid in schools-
Our studies are crap. We haven't put appropriate resources into studying this. Merging "in-person school" v "remote school" across the country makes little sense since there's so much heterogeneity in what "in-person school" looks like. 🧵
A teacher in Louisiana in an area with high rates of covid & in-person school, has a class with just 2 students in it. The entire school has 37 students and 12 staff, in a building that can hold hundreds.
Should this school's data be merged with a school that's fully open?
How would merging such disparate data, and everything in-between impact our understanding of Covid in schools? What about when we compare it to the rates in children who are in virtual school?
My daughters have been begging to go to the pool. The hotel I'm at is at 3% capacity this week, but the indoor pool has been too crowded for my comfort.
But then I remembered this phenomenon that happens when Black people join white spaces, white people tend to leave.
Don't believe me, Google "white flight". White people will sell their homes and move, if too many Blacks move to their neighborhoods. The same thing happens when we get in the pool. Every time. My entire life. White people tend to leave, and we get the entire pool to ourselves.
I decided to test it this time. When White people leaving would no longer be offensive, but the safest thing to happen during a pandemic.
And yup, within 7 minutes, we went from sharing a pool with 12 other families, to down to 2 families.
There's good reason to pushback hard against delaying the second dose of the vaccine like we did when people suggested skipping phase 3 trials.
1- we promised a scheduled second dose to the millions already vaccinated
2- there's millions of dosages awaiting distribution
we haven't figured out how to maximize distribution to the current priority group, not a great idea to increase the number of people were trying to vaccinate without a good plan to get it to them.
3. Science.
We didn't test this method in any trial, we shouldn't push an untested model. Just like we were right to pushback on skipping phase 3 trials.
Correctly doing science matters.
"Nearly 950 new cases of COVID-19 were reported in the past week among students and staff in Massachusetts schools.
Districts announced 552 of the new cases were diagnosed in students, while the other 397 cases of the virus were among staff members. Dec. 17 through Dec. 23...
The 949 cases is a slight decrease from last week's 1,009 -- which set a record as the most coronavirus cases announced in a single week since students returned to class in the fall. The state estimates there are about 450,000 students and 75,000 staff in-person learning"