Thread on budget day nifty movement:
Few data points for budget day.
1. Average range for day 2.4% - can use this range of intraday strike selection.
2. When nifty fell >1.5% before budget - post budget nifty rises >2% in next 4 days -
@jitendrajain @yogeeswarpal
(1/4)
can use this data for taking a risk defined bullish position.
3. If we compare low post event and high post event.. On majority of occasions nifty has seen a recovery in next 4 days [average low is -1% and avg high 2.7%] - this also indicates on bullish side…
(2/4)
So can use this statistics for building your non-directional or directional strategy post budget..
statistically speaking,
1. long put or naked short futures don't make sense.
2. Can do bullish debit spreads or bullish credit spreads..
(3/4)
3. For non-direction - Can do bullish iron fly [selling higher strikes price CE & PE - with a hedge on both side]
4. If doing iron condors.. Can sell closer strike PE and far strike for calls [with hedge on both side]
for point 3 & 4 can use table statistics
(4/4)
This is just statistics.. even 80% of time nifty didn't fall after budget.. still you can't rule out this year becoming part of rest 20% data set.. so use your due diligence and risk management.
Banknifty
interesting of all PSUBANK index:

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More from @yogeshnanda1

24 Oct 20
Trending markets are very tough for the option seller. So working on something which could find calmness in chaos. what I realised solution to this could be your Risk management [Mathematics for me]. (1/n)
scenario 1:
with 60% success Rate on wining day you gain 30 points and on losing day you lose 30 points. so monthly you can make 4%. (2/n)
scenario 2:
keeping success Rate same at 60% - lets improve out winning days gain to 35 points and on losing day you lose 30 points. so monthly you can make 6%. (3/n)
Read 8 tweets
15 Oct 20
For pivot point enthusiast:
Have done some data analysis on where nifty opens and where it closes in terms of pivot points. Have used 2 parameters
Where nifty opens-[above pivot, above R1, below pivot, below S1]
Where nifty closes-[abv pivot, abv R1, below pivot, below S1] (1/5)
example looking at open location data : -
Opened above pivot - 44%
Opened below pivot - 30%,
Opened above R1 - 18%
Opened below S1 - 8%
If we further breakdown each category in to where nifty closed that day for each category [where it opened] we get few datapoints.. (2/5)
How to Read data?

(3/5)
Read 6 tweets
14 Oct 20
INFY result Trade: Sold 1160CE & 1120PE for combined premium of 80 points.. Result is overnight so will hedge this position with 1220Ce & 1060PE at 3PM today..
Idea here is being ready with plan.. how i think in such trades.
1) entry in trade...
2) hedge for the trade...
3) Plan to reduce the hedge cost..
4) Exit target [in profit] in case of Small move..
5) adjustment plan in case of bigger move..
and most important part is point 5
added hedge.. at cost of 35 points..
many people asked why to take risk..
In morning this hedge was available at 40 points and now i hedged at 35 points.. hope all got their answer.. now my risk is only 25 points on this trade..
Read 4 tweets
3 Aug 20
Thread on pre-earning trade:
Purpose : Earn from IV crush post result as uncertainty is over.
Which stocks: stocks with higher IVP(Iv percentile) and historical volatility lower then IV
Strategies: can do straddle or strangle / low risk iron fly or iron condor (1/n)
How i play? : iron fly for overnight results (save from gap up like wipro/infy) and
straddles for results during market hours
This all is available if you google it : but key is how you manage post result.
no standard way to react so have your plan ready before trade.(2/n)
Have all scenarios chalked out
Will explain with example of sbi trade:
Sbi result was in market hours.
Trade taken: sold 190 straddle for 23 RS.
Target: 4- 5 rs decay
Breakeven level: 213 & 167
(3/n)
Read 9 tweets
11 Jun 20
Have been using ichimoku for sometime and this is very useful tool fir swing tradin. I use it for swing trading. Will share few tricks which i use.
Ichimoku cloud [Span B] breakout and retest of cloud level are two great tool
given below are few recent examples
@jitendrajain
Zee- recent cloud breakout its retest and how trade entry taken on hourly chart. Image
Jindal steel cloud breakout and one way ride Image
Read 10 tweets
19 May 20
How to trade based on multi-time frame analysis and make a simple system. Have observed that in sideways market index oscillates between upper and lower band of bollinger band.
big question is how we can trade it. can be done by borrowing view from daily time frame (1/4)
and execution based on hourly time frame. have tried to explain through attached chart. I know sample size is less but this is just and idea - pls do back-test on larger sample size

(2/4)@jitendrajain
conditions of bullish trade: [vice versa for bearish]
a) Nifty above 20SMA on daily charts
b) Buy when nifty touches lower bollinger band on hourly
charts
c) stop loss - 50 points
d) target - Target 1 20SMA on hourly chart
Target 2 - upper bollinger band on hourly chart.
(3/4)
Read 8 tweets

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