Thread by @yogeshnanda1

Thread on budget day nifty movement:
Few data points for budget day.
1. Average range for day 2.4% - can use this range of intraday strike selection.
2. When nifty fell >1.5% before budget - post budget nifty rises >2% in next 4 days -
@jitendrajain @yogeeswarpal
(1/4)

can use this data for taking a risk defined bullish position.
3. If we compare low post event and high post event.. On majority of occasions nifty has seen a recovery in next 4 days [average low is -1% and avg high 2.7%] - this also indicates on bullish side…
(2/4)

So can use this statistics for building your non-directional or directional strategy post budget..
statistically speaking,
1. long put or naked short futures don't make sense.
2. Can do bullish debit spreads or bullish credit spreads..
(3/4)

3. For non-direction - Can do bullish iron fly [selling higher strikes price CE & PE - with a hedge on both side]
4. If doing iron condors.. Can sell closer strike PE and far strike for calls [with hedge on both side]
for point 3 & 4 can use table statistics
(4/4)

This is just statistics.. even 80% of time nifty didn't fall after budget.. still you can't rule out this year becoming part of rest 20% data set.. so use your due diligence and risk management.

Banknifty

interesting of all PSUBANK index: