Thread by @jpr007

@FridayLukas @ConnectingODots @EvaFoxU @TeslaBest @28delayslater @garyblack00 @TeslaPodcast @stevenmarkryan @iamtomnash @GerberKawasaki @heydave7 @AdamHoov @stekkerauto @klwtts @chamath @Kristennetten @WholeMarsBlog @tesla4the @321FlaSTEMEd @elonmusk @Gfilche Regarding AAPL

And considering the viewpoint of a Real Equity Investor with a long-term outlook

Let’s assume that you had built your long-term Buy and Hold investment position on a regular basis over time starting with the IPO

Accumulating with equal dollar monthly purchases

@FridayLukas @ConnectingODots @EvaFoxU @TeslaBest @28delayslater @garyblack00 @TeslaPodcast @stevenmarkryan @iamtomnash @GerberKawasaki @heydave7 @AdamHoov @stekkerauto @klwtts @chamath @Kristennetten @WholeMarsBlog @tesla4the @321FlaSTEMEd @elonmusk @Gfilche At the end of 1998 going into 1999 your cost basis would probably have been somewhere around $0.22 per share, based on the daily closing prices for that period

@FridayLukas @ConnectingODots @EvaFoxU @TeslaBest @28delayslater @garyblack00 @TeslaPodcast @stevenmarkryan @iamtomnash @GerberKawasaki @heydave7 @AdamHoov @stekkerauto @klwtts @chamath @Kristennetten @WholeMarsBlog @tesla4the @321FlaSTEMEd @elonmusk @Gfilche It is difficult to understand why panic selling would have helped the ordinary investor during the years that followed

And that original accumulation of shares at $0.22 per share would be valued at about $132 per share today

- that is a 600x return

@FridayLukas @ConnectingODots @EvaFoxU @TeslaBest @28delayslater @garyblack00 @TeslaPodcast @stevenmarkryan @iamtomnash @GerberKawasaki @heydave7 @AdamHoov @stekkerauto @klwtts @chamath @Kristennetten @WholeMarsBlog @tesla4the @321FlaSTEMEd @elonmusk @Gfilche Which is much better than even Peter Lynch’s 10-Baggers

And it is equivalent to a +33.7% per annum CAGR from the end of 1998 until today

Now of course that investment period includes some very challenging times for AAPL

@FridayLukas @ConnectingODots @EvaFoxU @TeslaBest @28delayslater @garyblack00 @TeslaPodcast @stevenmarkryan @iamtomnash @GerberKawasaki @heydave7 @AdamHoov @stekkerauto @klwtts @chamath @Kristennetten @WholeMarsBlog @tesla4the @321FlaSTEMEd @elonmusk @Gfilche But the key point is that Real Equity Investing is about the long-term outcome and not the short-term market fluctuations

@FridayLukas @ConnectingODots @EvaFoxU @TeslaBest @28delayslater @garyblack00 @TeslaPodcast @stevenmarkryan @iamtomnash @GerberKawasaki @heydave7 @AdamHoov @stekkerauto @klwtts @chamath @Kristennetten @WholeMarsBlog @tesla4the @321FlaSTEMEd @elonmusk @Gfilche “Yeah I remember similar things were said to AAPL investors in early 2000”

And it’s not clear why any long-term AAPL equity investors that you are referring to would ultimately have been harmed by being patient

Active traders of course will have had a very different experience

@FridayLukas @ConnectingODots @EvaFoxU @TeslaBest @28delayslater @garyblack00 @TeslaPodcast @stevenmarkryan @iamtomnash @GerberKawasaki @heydave7 @AdamHoov @stekkerauto @klwtts @chamath @Kristennetten @WholeMarsBlog @tesla4the @321FlaSTEMEd @elonmusk @Gfilche And it’s not like AAPL investor have finished accumulating value

- even if the expected investment growth rates may be a little less than in the past

@FridayLukas @ConnectingODots @EvaFoxU @TeslaBest @28delayslater @garyblack00 @TeslaPodcast @stevenmarkryan @iamtomnash @GerberKawasaki @heydave7 @AdamHoov @stekkerauto @klwtts @chamath @Kristennetten @WholeMarsBlog @tesla4the @321FlaSTEMEd @elonmusk @Gfilche Here is the same data in a more familiar format

Note that this chart’s pricing has not yet been adjusted for last year’s 4-for-1 stock split

@FridayLukas @ConnectingODots @EvaFoxU @TeslaBest @28delayslater @garyblack00 @TeslaPodcast @stevenmarkryan @iamtomnash @GerberKawasaki @heydave7 @AdamHoov @stekkerauto @klwtts @chamath @Kristennetten @WholeMarsBlog @tesla4the @321FlaSTEMEd @elonmusk @Gfilche Apple’s stock has split five times since the company went public :

- 4-for-1 on August 28, 2020

- 7-for-1 on June 9, 2014

- 2-for-1 on February 28, 2005

- 2-for-1 on June 21, 2000

- 2-for-1 on June 16, 1987