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John Burn-Murdoch

@jburnmurdoch

29 Jan

Two great papers out today on how to improve compliance with restrictions and thus make real, lasting inroads against viral transmission, getting us out of the tunnel faster.

Turns out the answer is not blunt instruments, slogans, threats and fines (who knew?)

Micro-thread:

@mugecevik

1) @mugecevik and co on how you can’t threaten/fine your way to adherence bmj.com/content/372/bm…

Transmission risk is highest in poorer communities who face pressures *not* to isolate. Trials show: when offered support, people are more likely to report contacts & seek isolation

@BaharTuncgenc

2) A large survey by @BaharTuncgenc and co finds that when encouraging people to follow Covid guidance, positive messages and social encouragement work better than threatening or negative messages theconversation.com/why-were-more-…

I particularly love this line:

Read 5 tweets

John Burn-Murdoch

@jburnmurdoch

27 Jan

NEW: white people in England aged 80+ are being vaccinated at twice the rate of black people, and rates in deprived neighbourhoods are lagging behind less deprived areas ft.com/content/a831fc…

The gaps are widening, suggesting fundamental challenges in ensuring equal protection

These inequalities are especially concerning given the disproportionate impact of Covid-19 on ethnic minority groups.

The very groups that are most at risk from the disease, are thus far the least likely to have received protection.

@bengoldacre

The findings come from a team of researchers including @bengoldacre, who analysed data from 23m people in England to explore patterns of vaccine coverage by demographics & socio-economics.

The analysis will be repeated weekly, and Ben explains more here

https://twitter.com/bengoldacre/status/1354352442884894721

Read 6 tweets

John Burn-Murdoch

@jburnmurdoch

26 Jan

Somehow even 12 months into the pandemic, people are saying "yes but how many of those 100k UK deaths were due to Covid and how many were due to lockdowns?"

Time for a (short!) thread:

@PHE_uk

1) @PHE_uk tracks deaths by underlying cause fingertips.phe.org.uk/static-reports…

As of Jan 8, 82,180 deaths in England named Covid-19 on death certificate.

Of these, C-19 was *underlying cause* in 74,000, or 90%. These aren’t people who tested positive, recovered and then fell down stairs.

@ICNARC

2) We also have data from @ICNARC suggesting that deaths from many other causes are actually *down* this year.

ICU admissions for trauma and even self-harm are lower this year than usual.

Read 7 tweets

John Burn-Murdoch

@jburnmurdoch

26 Jan

@GeorgeWParker

NEW: UK has now passed 100,000 Covid-19 deaths according to three different measures:
• Deaths within 28 days of positive test
• Deaths where C-19 mentioned on death certificate
• Excess deaths above historical average
Story @GeorgeWParker @ChrisGiles_: ft.com/675d737e-88a5-…

The inclusion of excess deaths puts to bed any idea that the towering death toll is due to people testing positive for Covid but dying primarily for other reasons.

There have been 100,000 more deaths than in a typical year, and this is despite fewer deaths from many other causes

Looking at the three measures across the year:
• Shortage of testing in spring meant "deaths within 28 days" were always an undercount
• Even death certs may have missed thousands of deaths, with spring peak in excess deaths thought to be the best metric for the overall toll

Read 6 tweets

John Burn-Murdoch

@jburnmurdoch

24 Jan

https://twitter.com/thegarance/status/1353347504650260485

I'm dismayed we're still seeing this kind of evidence-free shaming a year into the pandemic.

Individuals and small household groups walking around in parks, fully distanced is ... not how it spreads.

There's absolutely no evidence for it, but the myth has somehow stuck around.

https://twitter.com/thegarance/status/1353347504650260485

We have detailed contact tracing research showing that transmission is almost 20x lower outdoors than in medrxiv.org/content/10.110…

We have mobility data showing that individual behaviour and adherence to guidance remain very good on the whole, while it's workplaces where activity looks on the high side

Read 8 tweets

John Burn-Murdoch

@jburnmurdoch

15 Jan

@tomhannen

NEW video from me & @tomhannen addressing more myths that have been used to play down Covid this winter.

Featuring:
• Why delays in death registration (& bad charts) wrongly led people to think there was minimal excess mortality
• "Excess winter deaths" are not "excess deaths"

https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/1350042546089545730

For several weeks, some lockdown-sceptics have been sharing the EuroMOMO excess mortality charts which they say show we’re not seeing many more deaths than usual for the time of year.

A few days ago, EuroMOMO indeed showed deaths essentially back to normal in England. But...

Despite EuroMOMO stating that figures in recent weeks shaded in yellow have been "corrected for delays in [death] registration", this is clearly not the case.

Week after week, the line appears to be falling back to normal, but without fail it’s then revised upwards every time.