GameStop is an interesting story, but there is a bigger and much more serious question about financial markets

As someone who studies finance, I know finance has tremendous potential to benefit society

But there is something serious to worry in the trend since the 80s
Let's start with the story we like to tell students in finance 101

"financial markets take money from savers and give it to entrepreneurs who invest it to make economic growth possible"

This is indeed a very important function of financial markets

However ....
Since the 80s financial market has increasingly been doing something quite different

The size of financial sector has almost *doubled* in terms of credit given out per $ of output

Yet, investment has not risen at all and in fact been trending down
So what is all this credit creation for?

As an example, let's looking at corporate credit, and in particular corporate bonds: these are $'s that large corporations borrow from financial markets

Surely this money must be used as finance 101 predicts?
Not really

While there's been a large increase in corporate bond issuance, on net its all gone back to shareholders via stock buybacks

In fact the red line here is *net* equity buy back - which means even after accounting for new equity issuance, buy backs dominate
The Bils of $ borrowed every year are used to buy back stock and not to make any real investment

Why go through the hassle of borrowing if you don't need the money? It helps to save on taxes
There is a lot more that's going on here

For example, the big rise of finance since the 80's is closely related to the rise in inequality that has produced a "saving glut of the rich" (see paper)

GameStop is just a canary in the coal mine

scholar.harvard.edu/files/straub/f…

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More from @AtifRMian

19 Jan
US needs a strong immigration policy to reverse the long-run decline in growth

To understand the argument, we'd need to get a bit into growth accounting

20 year growth rate just before the pandemic was at its lowest since WWII (black line)
Growth can be decomposed into growth in hours people work (red line) and productivity growth (blue line)

Both components are also at their lowest, but decline in hours growth is the steepest. Why?

A combination of two factors:
(i) the big run-up in women entering the labor force is maturing out

(ii) work force is aging / fertility rate declining. In fact, U.S. fertility rate is now well below replacement

So red line will continue to push growth downwards
Read 6 tweets
4 Jan
The Covid-19 recession is the strangest recession in living memory

For starters, it is the most unequal recession - like the virus, decimating some and untouching others.
It is also the most global, with practically all countries going down at the same time
The most unequal recession comes at a time when the world was already most unequal in living memory
Read 6 tweets
26 Oct 20
The stock market is not the economy. In fact, rising stock market can be bad news for most!

Annual rise in stock value
1989-2017: 7.5%
1966-1988: 1.6%

Annual rise in corporate output
1989-2017: 2.6%
1966-1988: 3.9%

Corporations produced *less* but gained more in value!
Why?
First, stock market only values profits, and more of corporate output is now going to profits at the expense of workers

Annual rise in corporate profit
1989-2017: 5.1%
1966-1988: 1.8%
Second, the same dollar of profit is now valued more by the markets (the "valuation effect").

See this terrific paper by @ProfGreenwald, Lettau and Ludvigson
nber.org/system/files/w…
Read 4 tweets
20 Oct 20
Students wanting to do a PhD in economics are often told that math is important

here's why (and some important caveats) ...
Markets need to balance out on average, e.g. the total purchase of cotton must equal the total production of cotton by farmers.

There are thousands of such markets and they must all balance out! How does this happen?
It is not possible to keep track of all this without resorting to mathematics, which is a tool for imposing rules and logic that nature dictates must hold.

Then there are many practical economic problems that at their core are mathematical riddles.
Read 7 tweets
17 Oct 20
Why study economics?

It is a science that helps us understand how we are all connected in a mutually-reliant ecosystem

e.g. one person's supply is another person's demand ...
economics gives us insights into how we can design this ecosystem so we help each other become better off, or how we can screw things up in a mutually destructive manner

At its finest, economics is about making the sum bigger than its parts
perhaps contrary to some people's perception, some of the deepest insights of economics are about how selfish and individualistic behavior can be destructive for the broader society - precisely because we are all connected

young minds should consider studying the subject
Read 4 tweets
20 Aug 20
One of the hardest questions is what makes societies change?

"functioning" societies take care of each other, develop trust, tend to work for the common good - and as a result become richer

"mis-functioning" societies seem to do everything in reverse - and as result remain poor
Both types of societies are stable, meaning they can go on like that for long periods of time

The obvious question is how can one change a mis-functioning society into a functioning one? How does change happen at the system level?

Obviously, no single answer here
But by construction, change will be hard - very hard.

Because the reason mis-functioning societies mis-function is that there are groups that are collectively in control, and they benefit from the mis-function

So change requires annoying these dudes, and they don't like that
Read 4 tweets

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