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David Henig Profile picture
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1 Feb, 4 tweets, 2 min read
The first is not geographically possible. The second is limited. The third is a slogan with no meaning.
Realistic CPTPP take. Of marginal economic benefit given that value chains of production remain mostly regional and provisions are limited in services and non-tariff barriers. But these should be our trade allies against the big players.
There is a big gap between the UK government's trade policy priorities and those of business. That's not healthy. Government persuading trade associations to make false boosterist statements to keep a place at the table doesn't help. More on this soon.
Interesting. Does the UK government rule out CPTPP membership requiring any change to the law? I don't in fact think they have as yet (for good reason, from a reading of the text experts are unsure whether this is the case or not).

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More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig Profile picture
3 Feb
Very important thread - reporting of the Northern Ireland protocol is typically inaccurate because it only refers to new East-West barriers (goods), not the new North-South ones (services). It affects both communities.

There is currently no realistic alternative to the protocol.
Maybe negotiable if combined with trusted trader / enhanced market surveillance? Won't change the fundamentals though. And bear in mind it is only two months since the UK government claimed to have fixed issues with the NI Protocol.
Once again the problem of the difference between the Prime Minister denying there are checks on GB-Northern Ireland trade and a negotiation about how the checks should work. And the DUP and Brexit ultras wanting the protocol to be scrapped.
Read 8 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
2 Feb
Finally discovering non-tariff barriers? Or the realities of the Northern Ireland protocol agreed 15 months ago and on which no scrutiny was apparently required?
The UK government is slowly learning what free trade really means and it would be nice if they would hurry up before the UK sustains too many more economic losses from the establishment of such significant barriers.
Reasonable to think that the UK government should have a strong case to extend Northern Ireland protocol grace periods as a quid pro quo for Commission mistake last week. But that of course is far short of what some in NI are calling for wherein lies the problem.
Read 10 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
2 Feb
It seems nobody wants to say that the situation in Great Britain to Northern Ireland is a consequence of the choices made by the UK government - and that is only going to grow as a problem. theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/f…
Sorry @anandMenon1 but this is simply some way short of the full story. The UK were not willing to make the commitments made by New Zealand on animal exports to preserve our regulatory independence / prospects of a US trade deal. theguardian.com/commentisfree/… Image
The UK government were told repeatedly that the greater the divergence from the EU, the greater the regulatory independence, the greater the barriers to trade between Britain and Northern Ireland. They chose to ignore that. It is still not admitted. How is this the EU's fault?
Read 15 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
1 Feb
The latest industry to notice that a thin EU trade deal means economic losses. And, to repeat (again), the trade barriers going up between UK and EU won't be offset by a similar reduction of barriers elsewhere. This is free trade UK government style, meaning the opposite.
What the UK government can't or won't say - there will be major losers from the new EU trade barriers. That 4% GDP loss, or whatever it may be, will hit real people and real jobs. There will be some winners as well, but more losers.
And as I've noted before, the major irony. A government and cheerleaders who claim to be free trade leaders are actually leading the world in putting in trade barriers. And their opponents, often without such an ideology, are supporting free trade.
Read 6 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
1 Feb
As I had hoped and expected this new report from @b_judah is rather more interesting than excitable Brexit headlines suggested. Though I'd suggest a simpler starting point (at least when possible) - take as many US visitors as possible to the pub.
While a civil servant I once had some US officials invite themselves over to London to lobby us and Sweden. What to do with them after the meeting? Rules said it couldn't be expensed, but a couple of hours in the pub was a great way to build friendships.
But the elephant in the room in UK foreign relationships including with the US post-Trump is that our government's vision of how the world works in terms of sovereignty, trade and yes the EU just isn't very widely shared. We have to fix that in some way.
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
1 Feb
My first @ECIPE paper of the year is out today - on how Global Value Chains now dominate trade flows in all sectors and what it means. It is short and accessible, so you can read it all. But there must always be the twitter version, so here goes... ecipe.org/publications/g…
So Global Value Chains is just about cars right? 30,000 components going into one finished car. But actually it is widespread in all sectors, vaccinations represent global chains of activity led by pharma companies, supermarkets, football clubs, app stores, you name it. Image
Why global value chains? Basically companies have the technology and information to combine goods and servives from around the world, and in a competitive global economy they need to optimise this. But management of complexity comes at a cost. Image
Read 8 tweets

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