Thread by @BigManBakar

The Review: GW 21 - A thread

Hi everyone, welcome to the latest edition of “The Review” where I reflect on the happenings of GW 21 with a look ahead to GW 22:

#FPL #FPLCommunity @OfficialFPL

(Data taken from @FFScout and @FFH_HQ with consent)

I’d like to share that the Fantasy5 had another winner and have now paid out £20k within 5 days! It’s free to enter, a lot of fun and potentially very rewarding. All you have to do is to pick 5 players who you think will beat their predicted target:

fantasy5.com

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At this point, I’d also like to mention that I post about FPL on my Instagram too, so if you have an Instagram account, follow up here!

instagram.com/bigmanbakar

Q: In this section, I analyze the impact of Harry Kane’s loss on Spurs attack.

I know the sample size is small but what’s worth noting is that Spurs have created just ∼0.48 xG in the 130 minutes of football played since Harry Kane has been injured. The eye test seems...

... to back this up – Spurs look lethargic and out of ideas and hence it is no surprise that they haven’t created a single big chance since Kane’s injury. Son was playing more centrally and was Spurs’ most advanced player on the field v Brighton...

... I’m not sure that suits him though, as he seemed starved of service. Chelsea is another tough fixture for Spurs coming up. Granted the fixtures have been easy, but Chelsea have conceded just three shots inside the box in two games under Tuchel and have the best xGc over...

... this spell. They are keeping an obscene amount of possession so the only outlet for Spurs could be through a potential Son counterattack. I won’t advise selling Son as he has West Brom next week who have the worst xG conceded in the league since Big Sam has taken...

... over, but if I didn’t own him I wouldn’t be in a rush to buy him this week either. Rudiger at £4.5 is someone I have my eye on if he continues to impress. Given Tuchel’s penchant for rotation, I think it’s far too early to be investing in either of the full backs.

Q: In this section, I discuss everything Liverpool related.

The following numbers are quoted from my friend @ahopcroft13:

Salah with Mane v without Mane 20/21
Mins - 1377 v 277
Played 16 v 4
Goals 9 v 6
Assists 2 v 2
Mins per goal 153 v 46
Mins per non pen goal 344 v 46

Not only are Salah’s underlying numbers better (both this season and historically), but Salah’s FPL points per game seems to more than double when Mane isn’t around (from 6 FPL points per game with Mane to 12.5 FPL points without Mane this season) as he tends to play more...

... centrally and seems to cherish taking on the responsibility. If Mane is out v Brighton, then Salah is the obvious captain – particularly given that he will be less likely to get rested in that case. If Mane is available, then a Salah start could potentially be dicey...

... given the fact that Salah has played 90 minutes three times consecutively and given Klopp’s recent comments on why he rested Firmino due to fatigue. With a game against Man City coming up, Klopp might want to preserve his star man as he has done in the past when players...

... seem to fall into the “red zone”. It’s also worth noting that Brighton have improved defensively too, notching three clean sheets back-to-back and failing to concede even a single big chance over their past three games.

I now scrutinize the lack of Robertson’s attacking points over the past five matches:

Andy Robertson GW 1-16 v GW 17-21
Mins per chance created: 50 v 50
Mins per big chance created: 206 v 450
Mins per touch in final third: 2.5 v 2.3

There’s not much to separate Robertson’s underlying data in recent times when compared to his season averages. If he can improve on his quality of delivery, then the points will start rolling in again as his involvement and chance creation are still on the same level...

... He has been particularly unlucky given the lack of clean sheets as well – Liverpool have conceded just one big chance from open play in the past three matches yet have failed to keep a clean sheet.

Q: In this section, I look at Bruno Fernandes' and Rashford’s recent numbers.

Bruno GW 1-15 v GW 16-21

Mins per chance created: 26 v 39
Mins per big chance created: 113 v 208
Mins per shot in the box: 59 v 78
Mins per big chance: 113 v 208
FPL points per game: 8.1 v 4.4

As is noticeable, Bruno’s numbers have slightly fallen off which is a bit concerning for his owners as this seems to have happened over a reasonable sample size of seven games. Coincidentally, this timeframe also aligns with the introduction of Pogba into the team so the...

... theory that Pogba seems to affect Bruno’s returns might hold some truth. Bruno is still an elite asset no doubt but I’d be a bit hesitant to captain him given his recent numbers despite the fact that Southampton have been conceding almost three big chances per game...

... in recent weeks. Rashford’s numbers seem to have fallen off a cliff – he has registered just six shots in the box in seven games and seems to have lost all confidence in front of goal as was evident against Arsenal. I would give him one last chance against Southampton...

... though, I think this might finally be the game where he delivers – particularly if Kyle Walker Peters is ruled out.

Q: In this section, I talk about Everton and Newcastle.

Newcastle created a total of nine chances (including four big chances!) against Everton this GW. Callum Wilson was at the end of each one of these four big chances, and could have had an even bigger haul had...

... he been more clinical. Newcastle created the highest number of big chances this GW and it was only the second time that Newcastle managed to accumulate four or more big chances in a single game this season. Coincidentally, the last time this happened this season was also...

... when Newcastle played Everton in GW 7. Given that he’s finally hit form, it only makes sense to keep Wilson now given that Newcastle now face Palace and Southampton at home in the next two – at home, Wilson tends to get more big chances too. Calvert Lewin had only one...

... shot on target with no big chance involvement to his credit so his numbers were poor despite the presence of James, Richarlison and Digne. Everton have not lost and scored in each of their previous five away fixtures, so their away form coming into the Leeds fixture...

... this GW is decent. Leeds don’t have a reliable defence, so I won’t be too surprised if Calvert Lewin notched in this one. Having said that, I see a lot of FPL managers reversing their Calvert Lewin to Bamford move this week and I wouldn’t be too opposed to that...

... given that Calvert Lewin also has Man United away next week. Given the lack of Pickford’s form and the fact that Everton conceded so many big chances at home against what in general is a toothless Newcastle away attack, my advice would be to avoid Everton’s...

... defenders for now. I expect all their four upcoming opponents (lee, mun, FUL, liv) to score against them in the coming weeks.

Q: In this section, I talk about Leeds.

I wrote last week as to how Leeds’ attacking numbers dropping off was a cause of concern for Bamford’s and Raphinha’s owners. Leeds put all such doubts to rest and in some style. Bamford delivered his second highest haul of the...

... season while Raphinha was in the points too. Bamford seemed to pick up a dead leg and is expected to be fine for the midweek fixture, and so is Raphinha despite picking up a muscle injury. Keeping both if we hear no more news until the deadline seems obvious...

... Leeds registered the highest xG this GW, and remain top for xG of all teams in away matches this season. Selling Bamford was a mistake – and it probably needs to get rectified as soon as possible.

Q: In this section, I discuss Man City’s assets ahead of their game v Burnley.

Like most weeks, Man City are bookies favorites to score 2.5+ goals this GW and are the outright favorites for another clean sheet this week so there is a lot of anticipation among fantasy...

... managers regarding the Burnley fixture – particularly given that most of their key assets were rested against Sheffield Utd and are now likely to start. Man City have scored 17 times in their previous four games v Burnley, so I think Sterling is a great shout...

... for captaincy this week – despite the fact that he doesn’t have a great league record against Burnley as he seems to be rested against them more often than not. A quick glance through the Man City predicted lineups on the Bluemoon fan forums indicates...

... that almost all the fans expect Stones to start, while there seemed to be a split between Laporte and Dias for the other slot. Personally, I still expect Stones to be first choice due to his stellar performances in recent times...

... but Laporte regaining form is definitely something worth keeping an eye on.

Q: In this section, I share how I read Leicester’s assets without Vardy.

Leicester have accumulated only just three big chances in the absence of Vardy. Barnes has been involved in one of these three big chances while Maddison has had no involvement. Leicester assets...

... seem to be unreliable as a source of FPL points for fantasy managers without Vardy because the spread of points is very random. Despite having scored this week, Barnes wasn’t even in the top two Leicester players for expected goal...

... involvement (Ayoze Perez and Mark Albrighton). I’m sure Leicester will continue to score goals but it’s hard to say who will be the main source of FPL points – at the moment there is no big fish in the pond.

Q: Is Matheus Pereira overperforming? Should he be considered as a mid-priced pick?

Ever since he has become an automatic selection in Big Sam’s plans, Pereira has been quietly going under the radar delivering consistently at an average of 8.2 FPL points per game...

... He has penalties and set pieces in his locker which adds to his appeal, even though on paper he may seem to be a bit of a nothing pick as he plays for a Big Sam side. Pereira’s underlying numbers seem to suggest that the rate of his point scoring is...

... unsustainable – over the past five matches, Pereira does not feature in the top 15 midfielders for non-pen xG, shots inside the box nor for key passes. His xG of 2.1 compared to his actual output of 4 goals makes him one of the most overperforming...

... midfielders for xG over this spell too. West Brom are second worst for shots inside the box over this period, so I still think there are better options to consider than Pereira in his price range.

Q: Are Crystal Palace assets worth investing in with the fixtures coming up?

Palace have been in the bottom five teams in the division for both xG and xG conceded over the season so it’s understandable to see why their assets haven’t been getting too much attention...

... from fantasy managers. Even over the past six fixtures, Palace are second from bottom for xG. Statistically over the season, Palace seem to do far better for xG and xGc away from home than at home this season. They have a league rank...

... of 12th of xG and xGc away from home, while at home they are 18th for xG and 19th for xGc. There are question marks regarding the security of Mitchell so none of their defenders would interest me. Three of their next four fixtures (new lee BUR bha) are away...

... from home, so Zaha might be worth a punt – even though I still think there are better options out there.

Q: In this section, I highlight Sheffield United’s defensive improvement.

It’s worth noting that Sheffield United despite having had tough fixtures in recent times (Spurs, Man United, Man City) are in the top six for least expected goals conceded in the past six matches...

I run a comparison to compare their recent numbers with historical ones:

GW 1-14 v GW 15-21

Shots in the box conceded per game: 9.86 v 5.57
Big chances conceded per game: 2.64 v 1.28
Average xG conceded per game: 1.67 v 1.12

The improvement is significant...

Their fixtures are mixed (WBA CHE whu ful LIV) so I’m not sure if it’s worth jumping in on a defensive asset right away but it’s still something worth keeping in mind that they might not be go-to candidates for captaincy selection as they are far from whipping boys at the moment.

Here is my Fantasy5 team this week! I’ve picked Cancelo as he’s been rested, has attacking threat and Burnley are second worst for xG at home this season so chances are he could outscore his target of 8.5. Firmino being rested also has a good chance of beating his target of 6.5.

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