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Roger Pielke Jr. Profile picture
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1 Feb, 5 tweets, 3 min read
A Remarkable Decline in Landfalling Hurricanes
@RogerPielkeJr rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/a-remarkable…
The 2020 update on overall global tropical cyclone frequency via @RyanMaue
Here (again courtesy @RyanMaue) is our 2020 landfall update, presented as line graph with trends by request
Updates this paper: journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/…
And if we look only at North Atlantic and Western Pacific, combined landfall record can be taken back to 1945, representing about 70% of total landfalls.
TL;DR -->concluding paragraphs

But do read it all, comments open-->
rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/a-remarkable…

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More from @RogerPielkeJr

Roger Pielke Jr. Profile picture
29 Jan
🧵New Science paper on tropical cyclones confirms our landfall analyses

"To date, there has been no firm evidence of global trends of the frequency of tropical cyclones with maximum wind speed above the hurricane-force wind (64 knots) at landfall"

science.sciencemag.org/content/371/65…
Also: "No detectable trend of U.S. landfall hurricane frequency has emerged"
Let me state the obvious:

If there are not more hurricanes making landfall around the world or in the US, then more hurricanes cannot be responsible for increased damage of hurricanes

A large literature confirms this:
doi.org/10.1080/174778…
Read 5 tweets
Roger Pielke Jr. Profile picture
15 Jan
Biden will name Dr. Eric Lander to serve as his top science adviser and will be elevating Lander's position as director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) to a Cabinet rank position for the first time. nbcnews.com/politics/meet-…
President Biden's choice for science advisor is @eric_lander
A geneticist
His MIT page: biology.mit.edu/profile/eric-s…
Lander has an outrageous 500,000 citations to his work and an H-Index of 280 scholar.google.com/citations?user…

Helping to prove the silliness of metrics (but I digress)
Read 4 tweets
Roger Pielke Jr. Profile picture
5 Jan
So this is interesting
I'm perusing the "Plum Book" and it turns out that Kelvin Droegemeier is NOT actually the president's science advisor.
He carries only the title of OSTP director
And 9/14 positions are vacant Image
Actually, there is no such title as "science advisor"
Since establishment of OTSP in 1976 most "science advisors" have held the title of "special assistant to the president" but not under Bush or Trump
fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R… Image
I think it almost certain that President Biden's "science advisor" will have the title of "special assistant to the president"

It matters: " The difference between an individual being the OSTP Director and the APST is more than semantic" Image
Read 10 tweets
Roger Pielke Jr. Profile picture
5 Jan
🧵New IPCC scenario evaluation paper
A thread with points of agreement, disagreement & one big mistake

The new paper is Pedersen et al 2021, a welcome addition to the literature (especially because it confirms our work in @matthewgburgess et al 2020)
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Agreement:
IPCC scenarios -- notably RCPs & SSPs as basis for much current climate research -- overestimated GDP growth & CO2 emissions

Difference:
P21 looks at GDP
B20 looks at GDP/capita

Difference:
P21 looks only at "marker" scenarios
B20 looks at all IPCC baseline scenarios
One lesser error:
The paper confuses RCP RF pathways with RCP scenarios
It is a common error as we explain in PR21: sciencedirect.com/science/articl…

Burgess et al evaluates the RCPs: iopscience.iop.org/article/10.108…
Read 10 tweets
Roger Pielke Jr. Profile picture
2 Jan
🧵
NYT article on US Nat’l Climate Assessment/Trump is right & wrong

“Trying to politicize or dismiss climate science is one thing when the warnings come from Democrats or academics. But this report comes from his administration’s very own agencies.”

nytimes.com/2021/01/01/cli…
It is right that Trump Admin has politicized the Nat’l Climate Assessment

But that is by design
So too did Clinton, Bush & Obama

The NCA is run from the White House by political appointees

Political interference is a feature not a flaw

See

rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/fixing-the-u…
The NYT incorrectly asserts that the NCA is run by the federal agencies

That is wrong
Egregiously wrong

It is run out of the White House

See the history here:

rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/fixing-the-u…
Read 7 tweets
Roger Pielke Jr. Profile picture
31 Dec 20
🧵Another new paper shows implausibility of most commonly used climate scenarios - Liddicoat et al 2020 in JOC
doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D…

Assuming constant 2019 CO2 emissions to 2100 (10 GtC via @gcarbonproject) gives cumulative of 1200 GtC 1850-2100, about SSP2-4.5 in Table 5⤵️
Assume net zero CO2 by 2100 give cumulative 800 GtC 1850-2100, or ~10% more than SSP1-2.6 in Table 5

Assume net zero CO2 by 2060 gives cumulative 600 GtC 1850-2100, or ~15% more than SSP1-1.9 in Table 5

Contrast:
SSP5-8.5 has 2580 GtC 1850-2100
SSP3-7.0 has 1909 GtC 1850-2100
So:
To consider SSP5-8.5 plausible requires believing that from now until 2100 the world will _average_ annual FF emissions from CO2 of about 30 GtC, or 3x that of 2019, meaning no peak until >2080 at ~50 GtC/yr

No one believes this is plausible.

/END
Read 4 tweets

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