🧵
NYT article on US Nat’l Climate Assessment/Trump is right & wrong
“Trying to politicize or dismiss climate science is one thing when the warnings come from Democrats or academics. But this report comes from his administration’s very own agencies.”
The NYT implies politicization of the NCA is OK from Ds & academics:
“Trying to politicize or dismiss climate science is one thing when the warnings come from Democrats or academics.”
We can expect the Biden Admin to also politicize the NCA, as this is built into its fabric...
Politicized climate science is OK if Ds do isn’t a recipe for scientific integrity in climate science advice
Everyone wants their folks in charge, but that is not how science advice is supposed to work
Climate change is real & serious which is why we need advice with integrity
Here is how to fix the National Climate Assessment, for both Ds and Rs
The importance of climate change does not mean that scientific integrity is optional, it means that it is necessary
🧵Another new paper shows implausibility of most commonly used climate scenarios - Liddicoat et al 2020 in JOC doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D…
Assuming constant 2019 CO2 emissions to 2100 (10 GtC via @gcarbonproject) gives cumulative of 1200 GtC 1850-2100, about SSP2-4.5 in Table 5⤵️
Assume net zero CO2 by 2100 give cumulative 800 GtC 1850-2100, or ~10% more than SSP1-2.6 in Table 5
Assume net zero CO2 by 2060 gives cumulative 600 GtC 1850-2100, or ~15% more than SSP1-1.9 in Table 5
Contrast:
SSP5-8.5 has 2580 GtC 1850-2100
SSP3-7.0 has 1909 GtC 1850-2100
So:
To consider SSP5-8.5 plausible requires believing that from now until 2100 the world will _average_ annual FF emissions from CO2 of about 30 GtC, or 3x that of 2019, meaning no peak until >2080 at ~50 GtC/yr
1-Integrate science advice with other forms of advice
Me-Honestly, we would all be better off if we just started using the phrase "expert advice" rather than "science advice" (2021 goals!)
2- Gov't needs to better explain trade-offs
Me- This points clearly to the need for expert advisors to offer decision alternatives, with judgments of expected costs & benefits of alternative courses of action as well as the bases for those judgments, uncertainties, trade-offs.
An interesting article from @jg_environ@michaelvandenb6 that says that it critiques arguments on climate policy advanced by me, Hulme, Sarewitz, Rayner
It is very confusing because it posits "critique" in the guise of enthusiastic agreement
On climate policy JG & MV assert "our preference for an incremental process of muddling through with polycentric governance" as somehow counter to my views, Hulmes, Hartwell etc.
Actually, this perspective is identical to my own, example from The Climate Fix below
Big role for direct air capture in the Omnibus Bill, including creation of a new Direct Air Capture Technology Advisory Board in DOE - apparently, it is coming rules.house.gov/sites/democrat…
Interesting
Act includes a prohibition on asking federal scientific advisors their political party affiliation or voting history