Thread by @TheDailyMao

...as predicted. Would be hilarious if the US sanctions Myanmar, India pulls out, and Myanmar hands over Sittwe to China to operate, thereby giving China a land-connected port on the other side of the Straits of Malacca. If I was China I would be hoping the US pulls the trigger

https://twitter.com/TheDailyMao/status/1356121192973778945

also note that Sittwe is the capital of the Rohingyas' home state, Rakhine, which means it would be ground zero for any sanctions the US imposes due to a genocide finding... and the India port/rail project is the single largest project by total FDI in that city

...and the main armed group in the region is reputed to be backed by Pakistan.

So you could theoretically see China orchestrating a deal if the Indians pull out where Rohingyas get more autonomy, Pakistan cuts ARSA support, and Myanmar redirects road/rail to Yunnan

Of course, India might be exempted from sanctions at Sittwe like it was at Chabahar, but the operational friction that US-Myanmar tensions create will probably slow down the project too much for Myanmar's liking, as it did in Iran

The major challenge for China under this scenario will be a) rapidly consolidating gains with the Tatmadaw caused by US sanctions while b) hedging and maintaining relations with the NLD such that those gains are not rolled back if they return to power