BTW, this permanent US "state of exception" over its own rules-based order and "right to fracture your elites at will" as the price for a given country participating in the US-led global market creates a system that requires undisputed US hard power primacy to remain stable
The US funding of current consumption via capital appreciation predicated on continued "feudal rights" of its corporates and government abroad also means US prosperity at home is at risk if the US system breaks down
This is why, in one sense, the longer telegram is accurate.
The ability for US elites to finance current consumption via capital appreciation would fall hard if the US did not lead the global system. The author simply chose to dress up that argument behind emotive rhetoric.
But remember that this leadership - this system - relies on hard power advantages that dissipate faster the more they are used and a state of exception abroad that erodes respect for the law inside the US.
Remember those two things, look at the last five years, and it becomes apparent US hegemony is choking on its own internal contradictions
I'm pretty sure Jake Sullivan (the longer telegram's intended audience) is smart enough to realize all this, but I doubt he has the balls or the stubbornness to actually shift the paradigm.
As a result, my likeliest prognosis is the US doing more of the same, to less and less effect, at greater and greater cost. When does the system break? Who knows.

/end

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More from @TheDailyMao

1 Feb
1/ A few hot takes on the Myanmar situation:

a) Whether this is a net gain or loss for the US or China is murky
b) One thing is clear: neither the US nor China has much to gain from intervening in favor of one side or another
2/ Early reports suggest Chinese FM Wang Yi was briefed on the dispute between the Tatmadaw and ASSK's USDP somewhere between Jan 12 and Jan 14. However, this doesn't mean China supports these actions, because China has been getting along fine with the USDP for 4+ years now
3/ Indeed, since both the Tatmadaw, USDP, and numerous ethnic armies in Burma were all neutral-friendly with China, the PRC likely opposes any upheaval in Myanmar's political landscape - but is likewise not likely to lose much unless the situation further destabilizes
Read 7 tweets
31 Jan
Li Peng is dead, and with it the krysha is gone for a lot of these vested interests
Back in 2010 I had lunch with someone whose father was in the power sector and affiliated with Li. Don't remember much except her casually saying 几个亿算啥,谁家没有几个亿啊 in a conversation about the price of Australian real estate
This is why that longer telegram makes no sense to me. The CPC was rotting from the inside pre 2013 and everyone with power inside it could see the end was nigh if they continued down that course
Read 8 tweets
29 Jan
1/ The Robinhood CEO's statement on why they limited the purchase of $GME and other stocks caught in the recent short squeeze is misleading. Here is proof:

#robinhoodboycott #boycottrobinhood
2/ Here is a screencap from a chat group of Chinese Robinhood employees. One of them notes that Robinhood is nowhere close to exceeding its OCC margin requirements, even with the elevated trading volumes and price volatility in the securities Robinhood restricted...
3/ One of them then notes that this fact is a 'company secret' and a third then notes that 'if the cash is sufficient [for the margin requrements] then the situation will be awkward'.
Read 9 tweets
28 Jan
Hearing that TSMC has not only been targeting EU carmakers in this 'shortage', but also stating that it will prioritize auto plants outside China for supply vs those inside China. Clear priority is to induce shutdowns in China's auto sector...
...as well as punish EU firms for signing the #CAI.

This is why you don't leave loaded guns in the hands of small children, and why China (and the EU) won't leave TSMC in the hands of Taiwan separatists.

The adults will be put back in charge, one way or another.
Indeed, thanks to Taiwan's display of economic hostility, it is now more likely that the EU (and specifically ASML) continues to supply TSMC with EUVL equipment after a Chinese op.

Well done!
Read 4 tweets
27 Jan
Actually, Asians is a pretty accurate descriptor here. Not even Japan would cleave closer to the US following a US-led extension of the security umbrella over Taiwan island... much less Korea, the Philippines, Singapore, or - yes - the rest of ASEAN.
@Dalzell60 might not be qualified to comment on the feelings or aspirations of Taiwanese independence activists such as yourself, but he is more than qualified to assess the security situation from the perspective of countries in the region...
...which is a perspective most Taiwan indy activists sorely lack.

Besides Indian hardliners, there are literally no political forces or groups in Asia that are supportive of more tensions across the straits.
Read 4 tweets
27 Jan
1/ With how US policymaking is going, I wouldn't be surprised if these were the headlines for 2032:
2/ "As part of her Woke New Deal, President AOC announced US terms for the America-Pacific Trade Treaty today"

"It will ask China to:
- Accept a $25/hr minimum wage
- Tax 50% of Chinese wages for a trade dividend to families in Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Texas
3/ "It will also ask China to:
- Allow their people freedom of religion, including for members of the Eastern Lightning Church of Almighty Kanye
- Sell all software, ecommerce, and cloud services companies to Amazon
- Sell all digital advertising companies to FaceGoogle"
Read 7 tweets

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