1/ A few hot takes on the Myanmar situation:
a) Whether this is a net gain or loss for the US or China is murky
b) One thing is clear: neither the US nor China has much to gain from intervening in favor of one side or another
a) Whether this is a net gain or loss for the US or China is murky
b) One thing is clear: neither the US nor China has much to gain from intervening in favor of one side or another
2/ Early reports suggest Chinese FM Wang Yi was briefed on the dispute between the Tatmadaw and ASSK's USDP somewhere between Jan 12 and Jan 14. However, this doesn't mean China supports these actions, because China has been getting along fine with the USDP for 4+ years now
3/ Indeed, since both the Tatmadaw, USDP, and numerous ethnic armies in Burma were all neutral-friendly with China, the PRC likely opposes any upheaval in Myanmar's political landscape - but is likewise not likely to lose much unless the situation further destabilizes
4/ As such, China is likely to remain aloof from the situation but also resist calls from the US/EU to impose or re-impose sanctions. If the US/EU do push sanctions through though, China may seek to take over Sittwe, since India's port buildout there may be blocked by sanctions
5/ Blech I just realized I screwed up a post above. ASSK's party is the NLD, not the USDP. Anyhow point remains that China gets along with both sides - the civilians and the military - just fine
6/ Chinese aloofness may change if US/EU begin pressuring the Tatmadaw, especially if there is unrest or violence. In that case, China may offer humanitarian or security assistance to keep Myanmar stable. However, China remembers Afg '79 so expect said assistance to be limited
end/ Knowing China's style, don't expect China will make an active play for anything in the crisis unless there is a literal civil war brewing that results in shelling and fatalities in Chinese border regions... similar to 2015.
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