It’s important to note that the rise of increased virulence runs exactly counter to the bogus claims by Hoover’s Richard Epstein and others (hoover.org/research/coron…) that the virus would rapidly evolve less virulence. Evolutionary biologists knew better.
Then as now, the best way to prevent the spread of more deadly or more virulent strains is to mask up, maintain social distance, and vaccinate. Keep restaurants closed, keep schools closed, pay people to stay home.
Herd immunity and vaccines can be evolved around in ways that masks and quarantine can’t. We can deploy better vaccines as new strains dominate. But most of the US has massive community transmission. It’s a breeding ground for new strains.
And if anything, pulses of lockdown followed by reopenings just encourage the evolution of more robust strains.
Whether or not you’re vaccinated, keep wearing a mask, keep working from home, keep limiting your out-of-house activities. The virus can’t evolve around that. (Though beware of Orgel’s Second Rule: "Evolution is cleverer than you are.")
Now is not the time to be clever. Don’t do half-doses or use untested combinations of different vaccines or whatever. Wear a mask, stay home, get vaccinated, then wear a mask and stay home some more. Save lives.
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Reflecting on Richard Epstein’s absurd predictions last year, which have been echoed in various ways by Berenson, Atlas, and other COVID-deniers. Some at least were born after smallpox, polio, measles, diphtheria, etc. we’re controlled by vaccines. But how short our memory is!
Epstein’s thin argument was. And it’s true that there is a point at which virulence can be so high as to be maladaptive. But so is zero virulence! hoover.org/research/coron…
And as Epstein knew from having been alive for more than half of the 20th century, diseases do not naturally evolve zero mortality and zero virulence in less than a year. He was alive to see smallpox and polio make repeated sweeps through his own community.
My friends, do not piss of federal judges. This, from a ruling dismissing Trump’s lawsuit with prejudice is brutal. democracydocket.com/wp-content/upl…
Insane that the day after GA’s presidential election results were certified, @PredictIt markets still have a 10% chance that Trump will win, and 16-19% chance that he’ll win GA, AZ, or PA. I mean, actual certification of the results changed MAGA fools’ posteriors not one bit.
Yes, their posteriors are taking a beating.
MAGA loons will give you a dollar for 80-90¢ until @PredictIt closes the markets. It’s insane.
Every now and then I’m reminded that the Iraq war started so long ago some of you were barely born when it started. So 18 years ago, …
Colin Powell and a bunch of people who people trusted because the US President/Sec.State should be trustworthy, lied about s3kr1t evidence Iraq posed an imminent threat. So they got people to allow them to invade, and a couple million Iraqis died (and thousands of US troops).
But Surprise! There were no weapons of mass destruction! It was all lies! Also lies: the promise that Iraq would not become chaotic and that there was a plan for the post-invasion reconstruction. There was no plan and no interest in planning.