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Peter Kolchinsky

@PeterKolchinsky

28 Jan

New data from Novavax vaccine just showed that UK & esp South African variants are more problematic in real world than lab experiments suggested. Implications are profound for 2021 and beyond. nytimes.com/2021/01/28/hea…

Vaccine worked well to stop original strain (96%), like mRNA vaccines, but less effective for new strains (86% for UK strain, 60% protective against South African strain). My guess is that if mRNA vaccines were tested now in a clinical trial in South Africa...

...they would show similar reduction in effectiveness. Bottom line, new SA strain has evolved SOME (not total) resistance to current vaccines. Current vaccines still help blunt severity, so worth getting even in South Africa.

Read 19 tweets

Peter Kolchinsky

@PeterKolchinsky

17 Jan

This new variant is making a lot of people REALLY nervous. Here’s why it should & shouldn’t. I’ll hit on infectivity, lethality, vaccine effectiveness, & some “what ifs”. Yes, it’s more infectious. That means that w/ comparable carelessness... 1/17

...new variant will infect more people. Once a person is infected... new variant is not more lethal (though like original strain, it’s bad enough). While not more lethal at level of individual person once they are infected, it’s more lethal at societal level b/c more infectious.

Lethality aside for a moment, not enough attention has been given to what this virus does short of killing. For example, it can rob you of sense of smell, which means taste, for weeks or months. Sound mild until you experience it- it’s a pretty miserable condition. 3/17

Read 18 tweets

Peter Kolchinsky

@PeterKolchinsky

24 Dec 20

Does being vaccinated mean you don’t have to wear a mask? Answer: no, mask up, please. B/c vaccine protects you from getting sick if you are exposed to virus, but it doesn’t reliably stop virus from hitching a ride in your nose & jumping to someone else. 1/6

We know the vaccines don’t entirely stop people from getting sick if exposed. They reduce risk by 95% (20-fold). But as people start mingling much more after vaccination, they increase their odds of exposure. 2/6

So think of it this way. Social distancing and masks reduce your risk of being exposed to the virus. And a vaccine reduces your risk of getting sick if you are exposed. But if you stop social distancing, you are way more likely to get exposed. 3/6

Read 6 tweets

Peter Kolchinsky

@PeterKolchinsky

25 Oct 20

What would you change US stock market hours to if you could & why? (long on thoughtfulness please, funny is an option, keep puns short)

Here’s another thought. How about introducing newly public companies to market by starting with short trading hours, 3 days a week & then opening up to standard hours after 1-2 years?

What would be ideal public exchange hours from the standpoint of emerging biotech companies (consider their needs) and the funds that provide most of their backing?

Read 5 tweets

Peter Kolchinsky

@PeterKolchinsky

24 Oct 20

Once covid vaccines launch, we might trick ourselves into believing they cause everything from colorectal cancer to diabetes to heart disease & lupus. Well-meaning data miners could do real harm. We need to vaccinate ourselves against that. Here’s how. 1/

Consider that many people have avoided going to the doctor for regular checkups during covid. They haven’t gotten preventative care. They haven’t been diagnosed with emergent conditions. They might now have heart disease or cancer and not yet know it. 2/

Here’s a paper showing that cancer diagnoses have gone down during covid. They say “The delay in diagnosis will likely lead to presentation at more advanced stages and poorer clinical outcomes.“ jamanetwork.com/journals/jaman… 3/

Read 20 tweets

Peter Kolchinsky

@PeterKolchinsky

16 Oct 20

Delays in FDA approval of a vaccine probably won’t change when most of us get a vaccine. PFE says it might be able to seek approval by end of Nov, so Dec approval possible. But will only have 100M doses ready by YE (50M courses). So unless you have... nytimes.com/2020/10/16/hea…

So unless you have reason to think you would be among the 50M first up to get vaccinated, what will determine when you get vaccinated is the pace of production. & for most of us, our ticket likely won’t be called until 2Q21. So approval delays of 1-2 months won’t change that.

You might even prefer that the vaccines be vetted more carefully. Of course, the people who would be impacted by delays are those slated to get the first doses. Front-line workers, vulnerable. They too might prefer to know the vaccines are safe and effective.

Read 6 tweets

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