⚾️/THREAD/⚾️
Next up in my #2021PlayerBreakdowns Series is:
Jesús Luzardo, SP
Oakland #Athletics
23 years old
Drafted: 2016; Round 3, Pick 17 (WAS)
Let’s get started...
Next up in my #2021PlayerBreakdowns Series is:
Jesús Luzardo, SP
Oakland #Athletics
23 years old
Drafted: 2016; Round 3, Pick 17 (WAS)
Let’s get started...
2020 Stat Line:
12 G
59.0 IP
3-2
4.12 ERA
1.27 WHIP
4.19 FIP
3.88 xFIP
4.05 SIERA
23.8 K%
6.9 BB%
16.9 K-BB%
.254 AVG
.306 BABIP
78.0% LOB
1.37 HR/9
12 G
59.0 IP
3-2
4.12 ERA
1.27 WHIP
4.19 FIP
3.88 xFIP
4.05 SIERA
23.8 K%
6.9 BB%
16.9 K-BB%
.254 AVG
.306 BABIP
78.0% LOB
1.37 HR/9
Everyone has been waiting for Luzardo to claim his spot as one the most dangerous lefties in MLB.
Shoulder injuries & a lat strain delayed that reality in 2019, but a late season (dominant) stint in the A’s bullpen quickly reminded everyone what could be.
...and it was awesome.
Shoulder injuries & a lat strain delayed that reality in 2019, but a late season (dominant) stint in the A’s bullpen quickly reminded everyone what could be.
...and it was awesome.
Luzardo carried a 1.50 ERA in 12 IP of relief, giving up 5 hits w/ 16k.
He then added 3 innings in the AL Wild Card game, allowing just one hit w/ 4k in a loss to the Rays.
This made him a popular breakout candidate in 2020.
But the ensuing results were more good than great.
He then added 3 innings in the AL Wild Card game, allowing just one hit w/ 4k in a loss to the Rays.
This made him a popular breakout candidate in 2020.
But the ensuing results were more good than great.
After a stellar Spring Training (8.1 ip, 1.08 ERA, 13k), Luzardo ended 2020 w/ a 4.12 ERA in 12 outings (3.83 ERA over 9 GS)
Overall 9 K/9 w/ a 23.8 K% & 1.27 WHIP
Good, not great
But he DID finish the season healthy, at least in terms of baseball injuries.
Which IS great.
Overall 9 K/9 w/ a 23.8 K% & 1.27 WHIP
Good, not great
But he DID finish the season healthy, at least in terms of baseball injuries.
Which IS great.
Luzardo spent the 2019 offseason focusing on “containing effort level” to prevent strains.
He is able to touch 100+ w/ his fastball, but after having multiple shoulder injuries, it was time to worry about prevention.
Monitor effort/workload, even in side sessions/bullpen.
He is able to touch 100+ w/ his fastball, but after having multiple shoulder injuries, it was time to worry about prevention.
Monitor effort/workload, even in side sessions/bullpen.
Luzardo did miss time after testing positive for COVID-19 in July (asymptomatic), disrupting his routine.
Ultimately causing him to fall short of expectations.
So should we expect the guy who went 14-7 w/ a 2.53 ERA (234 K in 195 ip) in the minors? Or what we saw in 2020?
Ultimately causing him to fall short of expectations.
So should we expect the guy who went 14-7 w/ a 2.53 ERA (234 K in 195 ip) in the minors? Or what we saw in 2020?
Plate Discipline results from 2020:
SwStr: 12.6% ⬇️
O-Swing: 28.5% ⬆️
Z-Swing: 68.9%
O-Contact: 53.8%
Z-Contact: 82.8% ⬆️
F-Strike: 62.5%
Zone: 40.3%
These numbers are mostly average, w/ a plus in zone contact rate & slightly low chase rate out of the zone.
Nothing elite.
SwStr: 12.6% ⬇️
O-Swing: 28.5% ⬆️
Z-Swing: 68.9%
O-Contact: 53.8%
Z-Contact: 82.8% ⬆️
F-Strike: 62.5%
Zone: 40.3%
These numbers are mostly average, w/ a plus in zone contact rate & slightly low chase rate out of the zone.
Nothing elite.
Luzardo’s 2.9 BB/9 & 9 K/9 fell below his MiLB track record (2.0/10.8), & xstats seem to support the performance we saw.
But he was quoted as feeling a “little off” w/ mechanics. Arm slot changing, non repeatable delivery & body position.
Even switching grips constantly.
But he was quoted as feeling a “little off” w/ mechanics. Arm slot changing, non repeatable delivery & body position.
Even switching grips constantly.
Luzardo has a diverse pitch mix w/ plenty of swing/miss potential, but transforming his arsenal into what he wants it to be is a work in progress.
“What I did this year...was not an accident, it was on purpose...I was searching for certain things & didn’t feel comfortable...”
“What I did this year...was not an accident, it was on purpose...I was searching for certain things & didn’t feel comfortable...”
“I feel like the year prior, & hopefully next year...I just have a set grip, set mechanics that don’t change.”
I know what you were thinking. How did Luzardo compete w/ that whole mess?
Talent, athleticism, confidence & a fearless attitude, a trait his manager acknowledges.
I know what you were thinking. How did Luzardo compete w/ that whole mess?
Talent, athleticism, confidence & a fearless attitude, a trait his manager acknowledges.
Luzardo, who played basketball/soccer growing up, smiles on the day he pitches, (even for his first career start last Aug), where most young SP would be serious/nervous.
He keeps within himself where most young SP would get amped up & overthrow.
The makeup for a star IS there.
He keeps within himself where most young SP would get amped up & overthrow.
The makeup for a star IS there.
Luzardo has a wide arsenal & uses all of his pitches to attack.
⚾️ 4-seamer w/ some of the highest velo from a LHP in MLB.
⚾️ Sinker that dances horizontally as it drops
⚾️ Changeup in the high 80s
⚾️ “Slurve” that is made impossible by the effectiveness of the above.
⚾️ 4-seamer w/ some of the highest velo from a LHP in MLB.
⚾️ Sinker that dances horizontally as it drops
⚾️ Changeup in the high 80s
⚾️ “Slurve” that is made impossible by the effectiveness of the above.
First of all, let’s start w/ the slurve. Brooks Baseball thinks it’s a slider while Statcast believes it is a curveball.
It IS a slider that acts like a curveball.
Unfortunately this could confuse if researching given it’s 19% active spin (gyro spin).
It IS a slider that acts like a curveball.
Unfortunately this could confuse if researching given it’s 19% active spin (gyro spin).
A fastball w/ pure backspin creates a Magnus force straight-upward, opposite to gravity.
If you take that fastball & steer it left or right, that is gyro spin. The spin axis is no longer perpendicular to the path.
The more gyro spin there is, the smaller the Magnus force.
If you take that fastball & steer it left or right, that is gyro spin. The spin axis is no longer perpendicular to the path.
The more gyro spin there is, the smaller the Magnus force.
The slurve is a devastating pitch when combined w/ the rest of Luzardo’s arsenal (especially the sinker/change).
It looks like a slider at times, sometimes a curve, sometimes a cutter.
Either way, it’s a weapon w/ a 45.7 whiff% (68.4% in 2019)
It looks like a slider at times, sometimes a curve, sometimes a cutter.
Either way, it’s a weapon w/ a 45.7 whiff% (68.4% in 2019)
Now, one day in Sept it occurred to Luzardo the Giants were hunting his sinker due to lack of control.
So before the game he tested a new slider grip to get more drop. It felt great & decided to just go w/ it.
Results: more velo, sharper down movement.
So before the game he tested a new slider grip to get more drop. It felt great & decided to just go w/ it.
Results: more velo, sharper down movement.
So does Luzardo now have a slurve AND a slider?
Hard to say.
The new slider appeared from 9/19 to 9/29 but disappeared during his final start on 10/7.
Slurve 83-85 mph
Slider 86-87 (max 89)
Hard to say.
The new slider appeared from 9/19 to 9/29 but disappeared during his final start on 10/7.
Slurve 83-85 mph
Slider 86-87 (max 89)
Over 50% of Luzardo’s arsenal were fastballs (4-seam/Sinker).
4-Seam (95.5 mph up to 100)
95% spin efficiency
Fantastic ride
2.6 pVal
Sinker (95.4 mph)
94% spin efficiency
Drop AND Run
64.8% Zone rate
4-Seam (95.5 mph up to 100)
95% spin efficiency
Fantastic ride
2.6 pVal
Sinker (95.4 mph)
94% spin efficiency
Drop AND Run
64.8% Zone rate
The last piece of the puzzle is the changeup (87.4 mph)
99% spin efficiency
32.6 O-Swing%
62.8 Z-Contact%
20.6 SwStr%
Watch below as Luzardo uses the old school fastball, fastball, changeup combo to devastate Manny Machado.
99% spin efficiency
32.6 O-Swing%
62.8 Z-Contact%
20.6 SwStr%
Watch below as Luzardo uses the old school fastball, fastball, changeup combo to devastate Manny Machado.
Luzardo tries to work down/away & up/in to hitters.
In fact, 42.2% of his pitches are on the edge of the zone (league avg 39%).
But it’s difficult to judge his control, or lack thereof, due to the mechanical issues on 2020.
⚾️ Inconsistent delivery/arm slot
⚾️ Different grips
In fact, 42.2% of his pitches are on the edge of the zone (league avg 39%).
But it’s difficult to judge his control, or lack thereof, due to the mechanical issues on 2020.
⚾️ Inconsistent delivery/arm slot
⚾️ Different grips
Luzardo is focused on bringing a consistent delivery & arm angle into 2021, which would give him more control over his arsenal.
“Pitchability” or the ability to throw ANY pitch in any count is what he prides himself on.
If healthy, we could see beast mode unleashed this season.
“Pitchability” or the ability to throw ANY pitch in any count is what he prides himself on.
If healthy, we could see beast mode unleashed this season.
2020 was a small sample for everyone, but this may have created a “buy low” opportunity in 2021.
Having a career high of 109 ip (2018) is going to limit Luzardo to a degree.
But w/ IP likely to be down league wide, it may not be a huge issue.
Having a career high of 109 ip (2018) is going to limit Luzardo to a degree.
But w/ IP likely to be down league wide, it may not be a huge issue.
Recap:
⚾️ Strong 4 pitch arsenal
⚾️ New approach focused on health
⚾️ Self-aware of mechanical issues
⚾️ IP limits
⚾️ New slider
The stage seems set for a breakout, but it’s speculation based on pedigree & a small sample.
But IF healthy, things seem likely to trend upward.
⚾️ Strong 4 pitch arsenal
⚾️ New approach focused on health
⚾️ Self-aware of mechanical issues
⚾️ IP limits
⚾️ New slider
The stage seems set for a breakout, but it’s speculation based on pedigree & a small sample.
But IF healthy, things seem likely to trend upward.
What to expect from Jesus Luzardo in 2021:
150 IP
3.42 ERA
1.21 WHIP
27.7% K Rate
7.0% BB Rate
There are few SP w/ the upside of Luzardo.
If his new routine focusing on staying healthy continues, you should bet on the puzzle prices falling into place.
Breakout incoming.
150 IP
3.42 ERA
1.21 WHIP
27.7% K Rate
7.0% BB Rate
There are few SP w/ the upside of Luzardo.
If his new routine focusing on staying healthy continues, you should bet on the puzzle prices falling into place.
Breakout incoming.
@Athletics @athleticsnation @WhiteCleatBeat @MartinJGallegos @ShaynaRubin @byalexcoffey
Above is an entire thread on Jesús Luzardo, but here is a link to the beginning:
Above is an entire thread on Jesús Luzardo, but here is a link to the beginning:
https://twitter.com/mattwi77iams/status/1356563363841589250
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