Thread by @MattWi77iams

⚾️/THREAD/⚾️

Next up in my #2020PlayerBreakdowns Series is:

Jose Berrios, SP
Minnesota #Twins
25 years old (26 on 5/27)
Drafted: 2012, Round: CAs; Pick 1

Let’s get started...

2019 Stat Line:

32 G
200.1 IP

14-8
3.68 ERA
1.22 WHIP
3.85 FIP
4.32 xFIP
4.28 SIERA

23.2 K%
6.1 BB%
17.1 K-BB%

.248 AVG
.299 BABIP
1.19 HR/9

Berrios has gone 43-34 for MIN w/ a 4.21 ERA in four seasons.

Thay being said, the annual fantasy sleeper has achieved an ERA below four in each of the past three seasons.

Berrios has yet to “break out,” but seemed very close to doing so in the first half of 2019.

Through his first 15 starts of 2019, Berrios posted an 8-3 record w/ an 2.86 ERA.

Oddly enough, his K% was down from 2017-18 (24.1% to 22.9% in first 15 starts).

BUT his BB% dropped 7.7% to 4.7%, which is excellent.

The wheels came off in the 2nd half of the season, posting a 4.22 FIP & 4.64 ERA over his last 83.1 IP.

So what caused this 2nd half slump?

Can Berrios recapture what he found in the 1st half?

Let’s take a closer look...

2019 Plate Discipline:

SwStr: 10.8% ⬇️
O-Swing: 36.4% ⬆️
Z-Swing: 65.1%
O-Contact: 67.3%
Z-Contact: 85.5%
F-Strike: 65.2% ⬆️
Zone: 43.4% ⬆️

Berrios K% (23.2) was dead on his career avg (23.1%), while posting a career best 6.1 BB%.

An increase in O-Swing% (despite drop in SwStr%) was met w/ a higher increase in O-Contact%.

Aside from being more aggressive (FStrike%), not a ton changed from a season long perspective.

1st Half/2nd Half Splits:

dERA 3.15/4.46
xFIP 4.12/4.40
BABIP .275/.331

K% 22.3/24.2
xK% 21.9/25.3
BB% 4.4/8.1
xBB% 4.2/6.2
Ball% 31.5/33.8

SwStr% 10.8/11.0
CallStr% 18.5/18.2

Zone% 51.9/47.9
Swing% 50.1/48.1
Contact% 39.3/37.1
In Play% 19.6/17.7

As you can see, Berrios’ control was simply not the same in the 2nd half.

Higher BB% & Ball% obviously tie closely together. But the 4% drop in Zone rate says a lot more.

This led to less swings & balls in play.

But overall not enough to explain the poor 2nd half.

BABIP differential may have jumped out at you (275 vs .332), but let’s take a look at his batted ball profile first to learn more:

LD% 20.5
GB% 42.1
FB% 37.4

Pull% 41.7
Cent% 32.5
Opp% 26.7

Hard% 36.3 🚩
Med% 44.3
Soft% 19.4

EV 86.5 mph
Barrels 6.5% 🚩
Statcast Hard% 32.0%

This is where contradicting data comes into play, & how we tell the difference.

According to StatCast, Berrios was 86th percentile in EV & 83rd in Hard Hit%.

According to Fangraphs, he posted the worst Hard% of his career... 🤨🤔

A 91.2 FB/LD EV is solid & suggests we should trust StatCast.

BUT a max EV of 115.2 mph suggests that, on occasion, Berrios gets hit HARD.

So grain of salt. Overall he did very well, but definitely had a tendency to get barreled at times.

Let’s look at splits ⬇️

1st/2nd Half Batted Ball:

xwOBA .300/.301
wOBAcon .334/.392
xwOBAcon .362/.357
Barrel% 7.0/5.8
xBarrel% 5.3/5.4
ISO .147/.162

LD% 24.5/23.3
GB% 41.2/45.1
FB% 24.8/25.7
Pull% 38.9/32.8
Solid% 4.5/5.4
Weak% 67.3/64.2
PU% 9.4/5.8
HR/FB% 15.9/18.2

EV 86.3/87.5
FBLD EV 91.2/92.1

Long story short, it looks like Berrios regression in control allowed bad luck to grow from bad to worse.

xwOBA & xwOBAcon are almost indentical, while xBarrel% show us a similar narrative.

That being said it was NOT entirely bad luck. Berrios was definitely getting hit harder.

Weak% was down, Solid% was up.

Both EV & FBLD EV were up, which led to a 2.3% increase in HR/FB%.

Opposing batters put the ball in the air more in the 2nd half, but his PopUp% dropped almost 4%.

More walks + more hard contact = worse results.

So how did his pitch mix influence these results? Let’s break down his pitch arsenal...

When most people think of Jose Berrios, they think “curveball.” But, like mostly every SP, he relies primarily on fastballs.

He throws a 4-Seam FB, 2-Seam FB (Sinker), Curveball, & a Change

4-Seam FB (32% 93.1)
.258/.299/.445
ISO .186
Barrel% 7.1
SwStr% 10.9

Curveball (29% 81.2)
.245/.285/.414
ISO .168
Barrel% 8.9
SwStr% 12.5

Sinker (23% 92.1)
.250/.338/.380
ISO .130
Barrel% 4.3
SwStr% 6.1

Changeup (16% 82.5)
.246/.280/.349
ISO .103
Barrel% 5.1
SwStr% 14.9

Berríos threw more changeups in 2019 than in the previous 2 seasons combined.

He used the change as a swing/miss pitch vs RHH & swapped it for his sinker vs LHH.

This gave him an accurate pitch to throw on 3B side w/ his 2-Seam, while the 4FB/Curve is thrown on the 1B side.

However, his Change only held a 29% Zone rate.

This would not be a concern, but he also had just a 14.7 SwStr%.

It’s true he had a 43.1% O-Swing rate, which is good, but you want to see more whiffs for a pitch so infrequently in the zone.

One issue w/ Berrios’ 4-Seam FB, aside from getting barreled quite a bit, was a slight dip in velocity July-Sept. (Dead arm? Stamina?)

He was able to regain his early season velo to end the year, but a .643 SLG vs his FB in August shows how much damage was done during that time.

Overall his FB is ok. A 10.9% SwStr rate was a career high & xwOBAcon of .388 is acceptable.

His sinker is not a swing & miss pitch, but it creates TREMENDOUS weak contact & a .319 xwOBAcon.

It’s not a surprise that his 2nd half slump coincided w/ a decrease in sinker usage

Surprisingly, Berrios’ curveball was not the dominant pitch I was expecting. At least not last year.

League Avg Contact
League Avg SwStr%
48.0% Zone%
-1.8 pVal

20.9 CallStr% combined w/ 12.5 SwStr% made it an effective strikeout pitch, but not “dominant.” (16.3% SwStr in 18’)

So to recap:

⚾️ Sinker very effective as a GB pitch to promote weak contact. But w/ low Swing/Miss potential.
⚾️ Change gets chased, but low Zone% w/ a SwStr% that does not correlate.
⚾️ Curve was good CSW offering (Called Strike + Whiffs), otherwise avg
⚾️ 4-Seam is “fine”

If it sounds like Berrios is not that exciting, it’s because he hasn’t been. At least over a full season.

The 1st half showed us how effective he CAN be, but can we expect him to take the next step this year?

No.

But there is enough ceiling & a safe enough floor to gamble.

What to expect from Jose Berrios in 2020:

3.68 ERA
1.19 WHIP
24.9% K Rate
6.8% BB Rate

He needs to fine tune his pitch mix to take the next step, throw his change in the zone, & take advantage of his plus sinker.

But there is definitely an untapped ceiling here.