1/ Primer on the value proposition of bitcoin & decentralized finance (aka ‘DeFi’).

In my opinion, this will continue to be one of the most exciting growth sectors over the next decade...resulting in a complete paradigm shift toward sound money, new financial products & web 3.0.
2/ First, let us dismiss the popular myth that bitcoin is transient like the speculative bubbles of tulip mania and south sea company.

Those bubbles were very illiquid and lasted a short 3-4 yrs.

Bitcoin has been growing for over a decade with billions of dollars traded daily.
3/ Bitcoin is an incredibly unique asset...

An asset resistant to inflation, capped at 21 million coins.

An asset resistant to censorship/seizure that can be privately secured with a seed phrase.

An asset that can be transferred anywhere in the world almost instantly.
4/ Unlike its digital currency predecessors E-gold (1996) and Liberty Reserve (2006) that were swiftly shut down by the US gov't, bitcoin continues to thrive 12 years after its creation.

The reason: Decentralization

E-gold and Liberty Reserve depended on centralized issuers.
5/ Bitcoin does not have a central point of failure.

Instead of a central issuer, the bitcoin network is maintained by millions of specialized computers (ASICs) and thousands of nodes distributed globally.

No one person, corporation or government can interfere with the network.
6/ Yet I frequently hear the comment “the gov't will shutdown crypto once it’s on their radar!”

I’ve got news for you. Crypto has been on their radar for years.

Obama in 2016 indirectly alluded to the danger of crypto as equivalent to a “Swiss bank account in [your] pocket.”
7/ Trump specifically addressed bitcoin in 2019 in an attempt to refute concern that the US dollar was in trouble.

***Side note, since Trump's comment below in mid-2019, there has been over $10 TRILLION in stimulus injections/bailouts.***
8/ For my last remark on the gov't 'banning bitcoin'...

The cryptocurrency market cap today is over $1 trillion and has been over $1 billion since 2013.

E-gold and Liberty Reserve were shut down before reaching even $1 billion.

Bitcoin is far more resilient than you may think.
9/ Decentralized finance, commonly referred to as 'DeFi', is the next sector of growth in the rapidly maturing cryptocurrency market.

This is an entire financial market being created outside of banks & stock exchanges, based on smart contracts that execute w/o central authority.
10/ With DeFi, you can...

- lend/borrow without banks

- avoid volatility with stablecoins

- trade without centralized apps such as robinhood or e*trade

DeFi makes it possible for only you and hardened code to have complete control of your money.

This is just the beginning.
11/ While DeFi has flown under the radar of mainstream media, general public AND institutional investors, the space is growing at an unprecedented rate.

In just the past year, DeFi has grown from less than $1 billion to almost $30 billion.
12/ Despite this tremendous growth, DeFi still only captures a tiny 5% of the total cryptocurrency market cap.

It is still very early for one of the most prominent narratives and value propositions in this space.

coingecko.com/en/defi
13/ Beyond finance, we are seeing the foundation being built for the next version of the internet—web 3.0.

An internet where control is decentralized, and users have greater autonomy over apps and their data.
14/ Web 3.0 is still in its infancy, but is desperately needed in a time when big tech routinely/arbitrarily deplatforms users and surreptitiously shares private data w/ 3rd parties.

I suspect web 3.0 will definitively usher in freedom of speech in the digital space within 5 yrs
15/ Lastly, the beauty of this space is the ability to front-run institutional investors/hedge funds.

In equities, early investments are restricted to institutions & accredited investors. Retail must wait until IPO—a time when most gains are already locked in by early investors.
16/ For DeFi and web 3.0 projects, retail can invest early via publicly traded tokens.

It just takes research and a vision of the future—both available to everyone.

(Institutions, in many cases, are actually at a disadvantage as they must comply with guidelines & LP contracts.)
17/ Finally, as a freely traded market inclusive to all, cryptocurrencies will continue to grow in boom & bust cycles.

For those with low-time preference though, the next decade will be a time when money, finance and the internet is re-envisioned.

This is not investment advice.

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More from @JamesTodaroMD

3 Feb
MicroStrategy World 2021 live now...

“Cash is a liability. No longer an asset.” Ross Stevens, CEO Stoneridge and NYDIG
“I now think in bitcoin...It is very freeing. Bitcoin is not volatile. Fiat is volatile...It keeps getting cheaper.”
- Ross Stevens
Property of gold that makes it weak compared to bitcoin:

"Bitcoin is the first store of value ever in which its supply is totally unaffected by its demand. Bitcoin is better at being gold than gold.”

Gold supply can be increased with demand.

Bitcoin will only have 21M coins.
Read 8 tweets
11 Dec 20
1/ Vaccine mandates are quickly moving from "conspiracy theory" to reality.

In a recent interview, Dr. Fauci asserted that the only return to "normal" is vaccination in 75-80% of the US.

Let's assess if that is really true.
2/ The Pfizer and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines aim to serve two purposes:

a) Protect individuals from symptomatic infection. Trials estimate ~95% efficacy for both vaccines.

b) Decrease the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. This benefit is still unconfirmed.

nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
3/ In regards to strictly the personal benefit of protection, most Americans would agree that the decision to get the COVID-19 vaccine should be a personal choice.

The debate becomes murkier though when assessing the risk of the unvaccinated infecting those who are vaccinated.
Read 11 tweets
9 Nov 20
1/ There's an unusual pattern for voter turnout in Red, Blue & Swing states.

Changes in voter turnout from 2016 to 2020 has been largely attributed to increases in mail-in votes this election.

Interestingly though, Red & Swing states had the greatest increases in voter turnout. Image
2/ This is odd because Democrats had a much greater preference for mail-in voting compared to Republicans.

One would expect that the Blue states (more Democrats) would see the greatest increases in voter turnout due to increased mail-in voting--their preferred method after all.
3/ Instead, Blue states actually have the smallest increase (4.8%) in voter turnout this election.

On the other hand, Red States had a 6.6% increase in voter turnout and Swing states had the largest increase at 8.1%. Image
Read 4 tweets
18 Sep 20
1/ An unknown side effect of lengthy lockdowns may be decreased crossover immunity to COVID-19.

Research on SARS-CoV-1 suggests that lack of exposure to the common cold coronaviruses could actually worsen morbidity and mortality in those who do eventually get COVID-19.
2/ Researchers infected mice with a general mouse coronavirus and then 2 days later infected those same mice w/ SARS-CoV-1.

They compared the mortality of these mice vs those infected with SARS-CoV-1 who were not first "primed" w/ a general coronavirus.

ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
3/ The difference in mortality was astounding.

100% of the mice infected with the general coronavirus first, then with SARS-CoV-1 survived (black circles at top).

Whereas 0% of the mice infected w/ only SARS-CoV-1 survived (black boxes).

(Significant difference with P<0.0001)
Read 5 tweets
17 Sep 20
1/ Growing research demonstrating importance of protective T-cells against SARS-CoV-2 combined w/ prior research on influenza viruses suggest that nasal mucosa T-cells may explain the rising number of "positive" PCR tests while deaths & hospitalizations remain low.

Here's why.👇
2/ We know a large percentage of the uninfected population already possess T-cells in the blood that recognize SARS-CoV-2.

It seems likely our nasal mucosa also possess these protective T-cells considering airborne spread of common cold coronaviruses.

3/ Substantial research on influenza viruses shows conditioned T-cells in the nasal mucosa is associated with rapid viral clearance and decreased transmission to the lungs upon reinfection.

jimmunol.org/content/167/6/…

pnas.org/content/114/20…

immunology.sciencemag.org/content/2/12/e…
Read 10 tweets
25 Aug 20
1/ Hong Kong reports the first confirmed case of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection today.

Although it is only a single case, it supports the theory that T-cell immunity (as opposed to antibodies) may be more important in regards to disease course and transmission.

Here's why.
2/ Case summary:

A 33-year-old confirmed case of COVID-19 from March 2020 (positive PCR test along with fever, headache, cough and sore throat) tests positive in routine screening at the Hong Kong airport in August.

This reinfection occurred 142 days after his first infection.
3/ The patient was completely asymptomatic during the course of the second infection.

He did not have a fever, cough, headache or sore throat during the entire course of the reinfection.

Based on genome sequencing though, it is likely that it is a true second infection.
Read 10 tweets

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