1/ Here are the most common crypto investors I’ve observed over the past years.

A) “Get rich quick”
- Basically looking for a lottery ticket
- Makes very small investment because of low conviction
- Often shaken out in dips or suffers a 90-99% loss in a coin that never recovers 2/ Onto the next type:

B) “The Nocoiner”
- Judges the entire space based off the worst players
- Doesn’t take the deep dive to realize the transformative implications specific crypto protocols will have on finance
- Often becomes very bitter every 3-4 years

MicroStrategy World 2021 live now...

“Cash is a liability. No longer an asset.” Ross Stevens, CEO Stoneridge and NYDIG “I now think in bitcoin...It is very freeing. Bitcoin is not volatile. Fiat is volatile...It keeps getting cheaper.”
- Ross Stevens

1/ Primer on the value proposition of bitcoin & decentralized finance (aka ‘DeFi’).

In my opinion, this will continue to be one of the most exciting growth sectors over the next decade...resulting in a complete paradigm shift toward sound money, new financial products & web 3.0. 2/ First, let us dismiss the popular myth that bitcoin is transient like the speculative bubbles of tulip mania and south sea company.

Those bubbles were very illiquid and lasted a short 3-4 yrs.

Bitcoin has been growing for over a decade with billions of dollars traded daily.

1/ Vaccine mandates are quickly moving from "conspiracy theory" to reality.

In a recent interview, Dr. Fauci asserted that the only return to "normal" is vaccination in 75-80% of the US.

Let's assess if that is really true. 2/ The Pfizer and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines aim to serve two purposes:

a) Protect individuals from symptomatic infection. Trials estimate ~95% efficacy for both vaccines.

b) Decrease the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. This benefit is still unconfirmed.

nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…

1/ There's an unusual pattern for voter turnout in Red, Blue & Swing states.

Changes in voter turnout from 2016 to 2020 has been largely attributed to increases in mail-in votes this election.

Interestingly though, Red & Swing states had the greatest increases in voter turnout. 2/ This is odd because Democrats had a much greater preference for mail-in voting compared to Republicans.

One would expect that the Blue states (more Democrats) would see the greatest increases in voter turnout due to increased mail-in voting--their preferred method after all.

1/ An unknown side effect of lengthy lockdowns may be decreased crossover immunity to COVID-19.

Research on SARS-CoV-1 suggests that lack of exposure to the common cold coronaviruses could actually worsen morbidity and mortality in those who do eventually get COVID-19. 2/ Researchers infected mice with a general mouse coronavirus and then 2 days later infected those same mice w/ SARS-CoV-1.

They compared the mortality of these mice vs those infected with SARS-CoV-1 who were not first "primed" w/ a general coronavirus.

ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…

1/ Growing research demonstrating importance of protective T-cells against SARS-CoV-2 combined w/ prior research on influenza viruses suggest that nasal mucosa T-cells may explain the rising number of "positive" PCR tests while deaths & hospitalizations remain low.

Here's why.👇 2/ We know a large percentage of the uninfected population already possess T-cells in the blood that recognize SARS-CoV-2.

It seems likely our nasal mucosa also possess these protective T-cells considering airborne spread of common cold coronaviruses.

https://twitter.com/JamesTodaroMD/status/1292873236716433416?s=20

1/ Hong Kong reports the first confirmed case of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection today.

Although it is only a single case, it supports the theory that T-cell immunity (as opposed to antibodies) may be more important in regards to disease course and transmission.

Here's why. 2/ Case summary:

A 33-year-old confirmed case of COVID-19 from March 2020 (positive PCR test along with fever, headache, cough and sore throat) tests positive in routine screening at the Hong Kong airport in August.

This reinfection occurred 142 days after his first infection.

1/ My thread on T-cell immunity got about 7 million views.

It's great to see so many people interested in understanding the science and medicine of this pandemic, even in a lengthy thread.

This thread is a response to the occasional criticism I saw floating around twitter. 2/ The most common criticism was "You aren't an immunologist or epidemiologist."

No I am not. I never pretended to be.

This criticism doesn't challenge the science and has little merit.

HOWEVER, here are just a few immunologists and epidemiologists with similar findings...

1/ There is growing evidence that T-cell immunity allows populations to reach herd immunity once only 10-20% are infected with SARS-CoV-2.

This would explain why a highly transmissible virus in densely populated areas peaked at 10-20% infected regardless of lockdowns or masks. 2/ The pervasive misconception is that we have zero immunity against COVID-19. Based on this flawed understanding, epidemiologists projected that herd immunity is not reached until 60-70% are infected.

This is almost certainly wrong.

Of course, the media ignores this research

1/ Dr. Fauci is misleading the American people when he says that randomized controlled trials have shown hydroxychloroquine to be ineffective.

Here’s why. 2/ There's only one double-blind RCT on HCQ in early treatment of COVID-19.

All of the other RCTs (SOLIDARITY, RECOVERY, etc) were in very sick patients and are borderline worthless because they just support what we've been saying since March—HCQ is for early disease, not late.

1/ As unbelievable as it sounds, it appears the RECOVERY trial confused hydroxy*chloroquine* (HCQ) w/ the drug class hydroxy*quinolines*

The investigators of RECOVERY said they based HCQ dosing off treatment of amoebic dysentery, which is why they decided 2,400mg of HCQ on day 1 2/ HCQ isn't used for amoebic dysentery though

Iodoquinol (a hydroxyquinoline) is used for amoebic dysentery at ~2,000 mg daily. (Oral absorption is low, so high doses are tolerable)

HCQ, however, is readily absorbed orally and a dose this high approaches lethal dose of 4,000mg

1/ My thoughts on the NY study on HCQ published in NEJM.

First, use of a "composite endpoint" of death + intubation is strange. Composite endpoints are reserved for studies with rare endpoints. However, death wasn't rare in this study, occurring in >10%.

nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.105… 2/ Moreover, the authors fail to provide number of deaths or intubations in the propensity-score matched control group (n=274)—leaving us unable to calculate our own mortality rate comparison. (Authors omit this from the supplementary table below.)

1/ Cuomo’s office says NY trial results on hydroxychloroquine will be released April 20.

Few details are available, but it seems HCQ was primarily used in hospitalized patients.

With the current state of NY hospitals, it's likely only the sickest #COVID19 patients received HCQ. 2/ Treatment of advanced stage COVID-19 w/ HCQ will likely show minimum to no benefit. (Bear in mind it can take ~2 days for HCQ to reach therapeutic levels.)

First, the benefit of viral load reduction from HCQ may no longer be important once the cytokine storm path is activated

1/ Summary of HCQ + AZ UPDATED STUDY by @raoult_didier

N = 80 patients w/ COVID-19
Average age 52 yo (29% over 60 yo)
11.2% diabetes
7.5% heart disease
10% respiratory disease
16.3% hypertension

All patients treated with HCQ (10 days) + AZ (5 days).

mediterranee-infection.com/wp-content/upl… 2/ Patient presentations:

- 54% presented with pneumonia
- 15% febrile
- 5% asymptomatic
- Onset of symptoms to start of treatment = 4.9 days
- Screening EKG done before treatment and on day 2 (treatment not started/discontinued if QTc > 500ms)

1/ I've aggregated several studies and their findings about the potential interactions between CHLOROQUINE + AZITHROMYCIN with a focus on cardiac outcomes.

This is very important given this potential combination therapy in the treatment of #COVID19 #coronavirus 2/ Efficacy & safety of azithromycin-chloroquine in pregnant women. Kimani et al.

Summary: Randomized, Phase 3 trial showing no drug related deaths in 1446 pregnant women treated with 620mg chloroquine and 1000mg azithromycin daily for 3 days.

ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…

1/ Here is my summary of the relevant points from the breaking open-label clinical trial on the use of hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) and azithromycin in the treatment of COVID-19 by Didier Raoult, MD/PhD. @DiderRaoult 2/ Trial included 36 adult patients, 26 received HCQ & 16 controls. Six out of 42 patients meeting inclusion criteria lost to follow up. (All from treatment group: 3 transferred to ICU, 1 death, 1 left hospital, 1 stopped HCQ bc nausea. No control patients lost to follow-up.)

1/ Coronavirus has mutated into 2 different strains, 'L' (severe) and 'S' (mild). The mild strain is becoming more prevalent compared to January.

This makes sense. The strain that dominates/spreads is the one that allows people to remain social and travel—not the one that kills. 2/ What does this mean?

- Fatality rate will likely decrease over time as the mild strain predominates and confers immunity.

- The longer you delay an infection, the less likely you are to become infected with the more lethal strain.

Stay healthy. #coronavirus

1/ ‘Back of a napkin’ math on Ethereum 2.0 economics

Basic assumptions:

Annual Yield for staking ETH is 5%
30% of ETH staked
Annual Inflation is 1%
About 100 million ETH in circulation

#ethereum 2/ Based on the above, ~2% of the 5% annual yield from staking must come from transaction fees. Calculations below:

Because only 30% of ETH is staked, the 1% inflation pays ~3% to validators. Subtract 3% from the 5% annual yield results in a required ~2% from transaction fees.

Twenty-one famous (and infamous) bitcoin quotes and predictions from the past decade...Happy New Year!

1. “[Bitcoin] will stabilize around $1,300 per coin very soon.”
-Bank of America, Dec 2013
cointelegraph.com/news/bank_expe… 2. “During the year, bitcoin’s acceptance collapses as investors realize that it cannot be used as collateral in financial transactions and its principal utility is for illegal business dealings where anonymity is important.”
-Blackstone Group, Jan 2014
businessinsider.com/byron-wiens-10…

Five INSANELY bullish charts for bitcoin. 🚀🚀🚀 $BTC #bitcoin

1/ Bitcoin looks nothing like the Tulip Mania or South Sea Company bubbles, which only lasted an illiquid and brief 3 years.

Bitcoin has been growing for 10 years with billions of dollars traded daily. 2/ If you dollar cost averaged into bitcoin weekly, every year would result in positive returns at today's prices, including 2018 and 2019.