Thread by @sailorrooscout

Concerning the SARS-CoV-2 variants that were first identified in the UK (B.1.1.7), South Africa (B.1.351), and Brazil (P.1), their specific mutations focus on altering the fitness of the virus by improving its rate of transmission but with mild signs of immune evasion. A thread.

From what we have seen, it is evident that B.1.1.7 (UK strain) is inherently more transmissible when compared to the original strain ( by ~50%), and it may be right to assume when populations are exposed to this variant, it’ll likely become the dominant strain relatively quickly.

While B.1.351 and P.1 are independent lineages, they have several key mutations in common being (see my screens for descriptions of the mutations of concern we targeted with our vaccines) D416G, K417N/T, E484K, and N501Y (whereas N501Y, D416G, and E484K are shared with B.1.1.7).

But what does it mean? Seeing the same mutation (in this case E484K) occur in multiple locations is clear evidence of convergent evolution. In other words, the variants are adapting in similar ways in response to similar selective pressures and this mutation is under + selection.

Unfortunately, this is not surprising. As I explained in a prior thread, this is what viruses do. But how do they get this way? The short answer is: US and TIME. This virus has had enough opportunities to replicate and with slow vaccination efforts it has an even larger window.

More importantly, where does this bring us now? You know what I am going to say. Vaccination is CRITICAL now more than ever (as if it wasn’t prior) to lower overall morbidity and mortality of every single SARS-CoV-2 variant- including B.1.1.7, B.1.351, P.1 and future variants.

With B.1.1.7 attempting to become a dominant strain and despite B.1.351/P.1 possibly attempting to gain a fitness advantage as they duke this out, we need to accelerate vaccination efforts. Why? BECAUSE THE VACCINES ARE STILL EFFECTIVE. This is not the time to drop the ball.

I don’t care what doom and gloom articles you come across. The DATA and the SCIENCE is there. The vaccines are still effective against these variants. They may not be AS effective as they are against non-B.1.351/P.1 lineages, but they’re still effective. But, effective in what?

100% effective at preventing severe cases of COVID, hospitalization, AND death. I don’t know about you, but that’s enough for me right now. Remember that the purpose of vaccination is to bring the severity of this virus down to the level of a benign one. We have to bottleneck it.

This comes down to the fact that our best defense against the occurrence of these variants is to get more people vaccinated. The more people vaccinated, the fewer numbers of overall infections (not just from B.1.1.7 mind you but those from B.1.351/P.1 as well) when and if cases

spike due to their presence, which is certain to occur as we are currently witnessing areas experiencing just that. However, the mild immune evasion we are seeing from some of these variants (particularly B.1.351) brings up another pertinent issue that we are already working on

as we speak and that’s the need to update and modify these vaccines. Don’t misunderstand what I just said. The vaccines are still effective, but we are attempting to stay ahead of the curve to be even more effective as these variants take hold and future ones arise. It’s vital.

If you take away anything away from this thread it is that now more than ever we need to ramp up our vaccination efforts and social distancing measures. I don’t care how many times I have to say it: those who have the ability to ramp up vaccine allocation efforts need to NOW.

I wanted to link this as this was context for the creation of this thread. This will explain more in detail why and how this virus mutates and more information on the variants.

https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1356387183045832705