A couple of my friends here wanted me to elaborate on what I liked about this budget compared to other budgets in the past. So, here goes my understanding of why this budget is one-of-a-kind! (1) @iamshinerk @NetraDaoo
Adversity is the mother of invention: We came to this budget on the back of crippling economic situation in wake of the pandemic. The immediate focus was therefore revival of the economy.
1) The budget announced the fiscal stimulus route of govt expenditure to fuel growth! (2)
2) As mentioned by the honorable FM, the fiscal stimulus is going to happen through three sector focus, namely:
(a) Healthcare ; (b)BFSI ; (c) Infrastructure
3) These sectors have been chosen since they are by far the biggest employment generators! (3) @nsitharamanoffc
4) The other big employment generator is textile sector, therefore Textile parks which I believe is an idea that has been launched after consultation with @smritiirani ji
5) There have been tectonic reforms that have been mentioned : Insurance FDI limit increase to 74% - (4)
- And Bank privatization.
Both these reforms have been talked about for a decade and a half or more but budgets after budgets, timid FMs have bowed to coalition politics and refused to do anything on these. This budget however has belled the cat much like AB Vajpayee did-(5)
- When his govt rode India Shinning horse on the back of Infrastructure, Insurance and Telecom reforms. The prosperity ushered in by those reforms, ensured that we continued to coast in a decade of high growth despite Pranab Da's Fiscal Blunders and Chidu's infation monster.(6)
- This Govt has taken a leaf out of ABV's economic reforms. Reforms that have the power to usher in high growth that sustains over time, which is necessary for us to graduate to the developed bucket. (7) @nsitharaman @PMOIndia @narendramodi @BJP4India
6) Secondly the sectors in question will take care of the Fiscal Deficit problem, which most of the political pundits masquerading as economic wizards post budget, do not get.
- Fiscal Deficit simply put is the gap between the govt revenue and govt expenditure. (8)
- FM said that they would raise money for expenditure through the debt market, via bond instruments and use the Build - Operate -Transfer model, where the GoI acquires the land, builds the asset, say a toll road, operates it for sometime and then hands it over to pvt party (9)
- Investments in such Infrastructure appeals to Foreign Annuity, pension funds particularly, since they look at investing a lump sum amount and getting a steady income stream over time that mimics a bond coupon pay at attractive rates. (10) Thank you @nitin_gadkari ji
- This because there is a revenue shortfall owing to the pandemic. Since, the revenue comes from Direct Taxes (corporate tax, tax on salary) and Indirect Tax (GST), it follows therefore, that increase in employment/employers will increase revenue -(11)
- And as the revenue increases, the deficit will fall. Therefore govt's focus on mass employment generation through infra, healthcare, bfsi will feed into the downward spiral of fiscal deficit, which the poltical pundits are yet to grasp. Tut tut! (12)
- Now we come to the consumption bit. The govt has taken a bit of an oblique approach to this issue. They have gone ahead and made PF interest taxable, (by far the only sting in the budget) for everyone earning over 36 lakhs or so, knowing fully well that - (13)
- The PF act allows employees earning more than 15k per month to opt out of PF contribution rigmarole voluntarily. In other words, should this employee opt out of PF, he would add to the consumption increase, which is the point behind this decision in my opinion. (14)
7) Also one of the things that has been plaguing our BFSi sector for over 5 years now is NPA. The govt has come up with an ARC(Asset Restructuring Company) to handle the issue of Bank NPA. Additionally with the Insurance reforms, banks would now be able to liquidate - (15)
- the stake and money that they have tied up in Insurance JV. Therefore more money for banks and less need to constantly recapitalize banks thereby decreasing Fiscal Expenditure. Also bye-bye to Indira Gandhi Bank Nationalize yojana, a deed pending for decades. (16)
8) Also previous govts have over time used budget outlays to announce a slew of socialist schemes, Indira Gandhi blah blah yojana and used extra-budgetary resource (off the balance sheet) for various other things like food subsidy - (17)
- Not so for this government. Apart from a 30k crore contingency fund that the government has created for contingencies, everything else is allocated and accounted for in the budget balance sheet itself. (18)
9) Finally by far my most favorite point has been that they have not increased one more income deduction slab by creating a new investment deduction under the 80GGGGG, nor have they tinkered with the income tax slabs needlessly. (19)
11) As far as I am concerned this is one of the smartest budgets that I have had the good fortune of hearing. It is based on an understanding of money flow and behavioral economics, not on some dated model of socialism that should have died in 1950s! (20)

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More from @sway_hi

5 May 20
A few days ago I penned a tweet on money flow, economic systems and how they collapsed in erstwhile U.S.S.R when it broke up.

Today I write on how we are facing a different predicament of "Demand Collapse" due to #COVID2019. (1/n)
When such worldwide catastrophic events happen, people anticipate tectonic shifts in money flow and scared by that prospect they withdraw all their investments/spendings, in effect triggering a self-fulfilling cycle of events.(2/n)
Once people start sitting on cash, refusing to spend/invests businesses see a sales dip. Anticipating that sales dip, lack of demand they in turn put off expansion plans, freeze hiring/begin layoffs. This feeds into the "doom-gloom" scenario. (3/n)
Read 10 tweets
1 May 20
Day before yesterday, I wrote a tweet thread explaining how economy/economic systems function and what happens when it fails.

Today I will write on a live example of what happens when an Economic System fails, for eg. U.S.S.R (1/n)
On 26th December 1991, Union of Soviet Socialist Republic, remember there used to be a country called that, ceased to exist, The last president of Soviet Union, Mikhail Gorbachev who had promised economic reform resigned to make way for Russian President Boris Yelstin. (2/n)
To be fair, this was a political collapse, but Boris Yelstin went into this event without any clear cut plan of how he was going to migrate a state owned country, to a country run by private enterprise.A prolonged period of economic chaos and disruption followed. (3/n)
Read 11 tweets
28 Apr 20
Have been meaning to write on Money Flow, since it is difficult to comprehend. So, using hotel as an example, here goes:
A 300 room hotel on an average employes around 1000 people.

When one books a hotel room. A small %age of it immediately heads to govt as taxes. 1/n
The balance is used by hotel to pay salaries, pay it's bills to reservation companies, to travel agencies, to electricity companies, to water supplier, to sellers of food and sellers of amenities.
In turn the suppliers, employees use the money to pay their own bills.2/n
The suppliers receiving money from the hotel use the money to pay their transport partners, the farmers producing the items and their own employees.
The employees of the hotel/the supplier pays his/her own bills. With that money they buy food and other goods. 3/n
Read 10 tweets
7 Apr 20
Have been meaning to write about Why India needs a homegrown, home owned E commerce behemoth, ever since CCI flagged Amazon, Flipkart for malpractices in January 2020.
So, here goes my two cents on Why, How GoI should go about creating this giant. (1/n)
In January, Confederation of All India Traders with 6 crore members held protests against Amazon's Jeff Bezos.
In addition to this the Delhi Vyapar Mahasangh red flagged both Amazon and Walmart owned Flipkart to CCI for malpractices!
businesstoday.in/current/corpor… (2/n)
Its a well known fact that Amazon has indulged in predatory pricing in the past. Predatory pricing implies pricing ur products so low, that ur competition cannot sell without making a loss. An example of this is Amazon and the Toys R US mess!
(3/n)
Read 14 tweets
24 Mar 20
@narendramodi Dear Sir, while ur move is completely laudable, there has been no concrete announcements on how groceries, water etc are going to reach people stranded at home.

So after ur announcement people are out on streets at grocery stores and medicine stores. 1/n
@narendramodi Furthermore reports are coming of BIG BASKET delivery guys being beaten up for delivering groceries.
Also streetlights are off creating unwarranted hazards for people scampering to buy groceries and medicine.
What if people were to fall into open manholes at such times. 2/n
@narendramodi Also, by delaying announcement on grocery deliveries, medicine supplies, unnecessary panic is multiplying and people are forced to populate grocery stores and make the choke points for spread of Corona.

All the pics are from north Bangalore @BSYBJP @ShobhaBJP @Tejasvi_Surya 3/n
Read 5 tweets
1 Feb 20
Getting a lot of angst from people on #Budget2020 specially with regards to the tax slabs. Professional whiners are at again!
As the first budget of a new decade, this one is sending a tax reform signal. GoI is simplifying the income tax slabs and by giving options, it is - (1)
a) Sending a subtle message to increase consumption. Young tax payers joining the mainstream no longer need to buy an LIC policy or a mandatory investment in ELSS just to show exemptions. They can use the simplified income tax slabs and do away with mandatory savings for tax! (2)
b) For those of us who are already deeply entrenched in the ELSS, PPF, Health Insurance cycle, this budget still gives us the option of going ahead with the status quo.
"Saving for Tax benefits" is no longer necessary since most of these tax exemptions come with long lock-ins.(3)
Read 19 tweets

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