NEW: fresh data from trials in Brazil, South Africa and the UK shows the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine is highly effective with a 12 week gap between doses.

Efficacy is in fact much higher with a 12 week interval than a shorter gap

Story by @donatopmancini: ft.com/content/de00fe…
The data also show that a single dose delivers strong protection that — crucially — does not wane quickly.

12 weeks after the first dose, efficacy is still well above 70%.
And perhaps most importantly of all, the data found that not even one recipient of the vaccine became severely ill with Covid-19 requiring hospitalisation

Every single participant who was admitted to hospital with Covid-19 was in the placebo group

Story: ft.com/content/de00fe…
Full paper here: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…

And a big thanks to co-lead-author @MerrynVoysey for talking me through some of the finer points.

Scientists who respond instantly to DMs on deadline are possibly my favourite people in the world 🤓😀🙏

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More from @jburnmurdoch

30 Jan
Lazy, rainy Saturdays are for making paella
And here's a pupdate from someone who's had a long day
Think that's actually my first paella since the food zone at Coachella 2019. Right now the world of music festivals seems like ancient history, but I have faith for a big comeback in 2022 🤞🤞🤞
Read 4 tweets
29 Jan
Two great papers out today on how to improve compliance with restrictions and thus make real, lasting inroads against viral transmission, getting us out of the tunnel faster.

Turns out the answer is not blunt instruments, slogans, threats and fines (who knew?)

Micro-thread:
1) @mugecevik and co on how you can’t threaten/fine your way to adherence bmj.com/content/372/bm…

Transmission risk is highest in poorer communities who face pressures *not* to isolate. Trials show: when offered support, people are more likely to report contacts & seek isolation
2) A large survey by @BaharTuncgenc and co finds that when encouraging people to follow Covid guidance, positive messages and social encouragement work better than threatening or negative messages theconversation.com/why-were-more-…

I particularly love this line: Image
Read 5 tweets
27 Jan
NEW: white people in England aged 80+ are being vaccinated at twice the rate of black people, and rates in deprived neighbourhoods are lagging behind less deprived areas ft.com/content/a831fc…

The gaps are widening, suggesting fundamental challenges in ensuring equal protection
These inequalities are especially concerning given the disproportionate impact of Covid-19 on ethnic minority groups.

The very groups that are most at risk from the disease, are thus far the least likely to have received protection.
The findings come from a team of researchers including @bengoldacre, who analysed data from 23m people in England to explore patterns of vaccine coverage by demographics & socio-economics.

The analysis will be repeated weekly, and Ben explains more here
Read 6 tweets
26 Jan
Somehow even 12 months into the pandemic, people are saying "yes but how many of those 100k UK deaths were due to Covid and how many were due to lockdowns?"

Time for a (short!) thread:
1) @PHE_uk tracks deaths by underlying cause fingertips.phe.org.uk/static-reports…

As of Jan 8, 82,180 deaths in England named Covid-19 on death certificate.

Of these, C-19 was *underlying cause* in 74,000, or 90%. These aren’t people who tested positive, recovered and then fell down stairs.
2) We also have data from @ICNARC suggesting that deaths from many other causes are actually *down* this year.

ICU admissions for trauma and even self-harm are lower this year than usual.
Read 7 tweets
26 Jan
NEW: UK has now passed 100,000 Covid-19 deaths according to three different measures:
• Deaths within 28 days of positive test
• Deaths where C-19 mentioned on death certificate
• Excess deaths above historical average
Story @GeorgeWParker @ChrisGiles_: ft.com/675d737e-88a5-…
The inclusion of excess deaths puts to bed any idea that the towering death toll is due to people testing positive for Covid but dying primarily for other reasons.

There have been 100,000 more deaths than in a typical year, and this is despite fewer deaths from many other causes
Looking at the three measures across the year:
• Shortage of testing in spring meant "deaths within 28 days" were always an undercount
• Even death certs may have missed thousands of deaths, with spring peak in excess deaths thought to be the best metric for the overall toll
Read 6 tweets
24 Jan
I'm dismayed we're still seeing this kind of evidence-free shaming a year into the pandemic.

Individuals and small household groups walking around in parks, fully distanced is ... not how it spreads.

There's absolutely no evidence for it, but the myth has somehow stuck around.
We have detailed contact tracing research showing that transmission is almost 20x lower outdoors than in medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
We have mobility data showing that individual behaviour and adherence to guidance remain very good on the whole, while it's workplaces where activity looks on the high side
Read 8 tweets

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