In early 1989, Senator Joe Biden sent some questions to GHWB Secretary of State James Baker, asking about US leadership on climate change. Here is how Baker responded. Image
How things went off track from a promising beginning is quite a story & well told by Prins & Rayner 2007, in The Wrong Trousers sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/students/envs_…
A key Q to ask is: what ever happened to the IPCC's original "Response Strategies Working Group" (i.e., WG III, later "Economics" and then "Mitigation" moving away from policy options)?

The IPCC transitioned from informing the FCCC to advocating for it's instruments (esp Kyoto) Image
Prins and Rayner adapted "The Wrong Trousers" into a 2007 piece in Nature: nature.com/articles/44997…

In it they anticipated:
Kyoto's failure
Importance of energy tech innovation
Adaptation
Importantly: the architecture of Paris 2015

It's still good advice in 2021 Image
Back to Sec of State Baker's response to Sen Biden in 1989 ... just read this:

1. Uncertainty not an excuse for inaction
2. No-regrets policies ASAP
3. Cost-effectiveness
4. The Iron Law!

Today's NAS report says much the same:
nap.edu/catalog/25932/…

How'd we lose 30+ years? Image
What is interesting about this history is that the policies that make the most sense to deal with climate change have been well understood for many decades

Yet it has only been very recently that these policies have emerged as acceptable (even preferred) among climate leaders
If today's @theNASEM report on decarbonization truly represents leading thinking on climate policy in 2021, we should all sleep easier knowing climate change is not just manageable, but ideas that will work are now at the forefront of policy discussions
nap.edu/read/25932

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More from @RogerPielkeJr

3 Feb
RIP all coal growth scenarios

According to @GlobalEnergyMon 2020 saw a net addition of coal capacity of 12.5 GW, part of a coal collapse over past decade

Expect capacity change to go negative soon, depending on China policies

globalenergymonitor.org/projects/globa… Image
Reminder that all scenarios underpinning climate research project coal growth to mid-century & most to 2100
Figure via @jritch (Ritchie & Dowlatabadi 2017)

The collapse of coal is very good news for the planet but requires a major reset among researchers Image
This paper has the details, comments welcomed
doi.org/10.1016/j.erss…
Read 4 tweets
1 Feb
A Remarkable Decline in Landfalling Hurricanes
@RogerPielkeJr rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/a-remarkable…
The 2020 update on overall global tropical cyclone frequency via @RyanMaue
Here (again courtesy @RyanMaue) is our 2020 landfall update, presented as line graph with trends by request
Updates this paper: journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/…
Read 5 tweets
29 Jan
🧵New Science paper on tropical cyclones confirms our landfall analyses

"To date, there has been no firm evidence of global trends of the frequency of tropical cyclones with maximum wind speed above the hurricane-force wind (64 knots) at landfall"

science.sciencemag.org/content/371/65…
Also: "No detectable trend of U.S. landfall hurricane frequency has emerged"
Let me state the obvious:

If there are not more hurricanes making landfall around the world or in the US, then more hurricanes cannot be responsible for increased damage of hurricanes

A large literature confirms this:
doi.org/10.1080/174778…
Read 5 tweets
15 Jan
Biden will name Dr. Eric Lander to serve as his top science adviser and will be elevating Lander's position as director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) to a Cabinet rank position for the first time. nbcnews.com/politics/meet-…
President Biden's choice for science advisor is @eric_lander
A geneticist
His MIT page: biology.mit.edu/profile/eric-s…
Lander has an outrageous 500,000 citations to his work and an H-Index of 280 scholar.google.com/citations?user…

Helping to prove the silliness of metrics (but I digress)
Read 4 tweets
5 Jan
So this is interesting
I'm perusing the "Plum Book" and it turns out that Kelvin Droegemeier is NOT actually the president's science advisor.
He carries only the title of OSTP director
And 9/14 positions are vacant Image
Actually, there is no such title as "science advisor"
Since establishment of OTSP in 1976 most "science advisors" have held the title of "special assistant to the president" but not under Bush or Trump
fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R… Image
I think it almost certain that President Biden's "science advisor" will have the title of "special assistant to the president"

It matters: " The difference between an individual being the OSTP Director and the APST is more than semantic" Image
Read 10 tweets
5 Jan
🧵New IPCC scenario evaluation paper
A thread with points of agreement, disagreement & one big mistake

The new paper is Pedersen et al 2021, a welcome addition to the literature (especially because it confirms our work in @matthewgburgess et al 2020)
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Agreement:
IPCC scenarios -- notably RCPs & SSPs as basis for much current climate research -- overestimated GDP growth & CO2 emissions

Difference:
P21 looks at GDP
B20 looks at GDP/capita

Difference:
P21 looks only at "marker" scenarios
B20 looks at all IPCC baseline scenarios
One lesser error:
The paper confuses RCP RF pathways with RCP scenarios
It is a common error as we explain in PR21: sciencedirect.com/science/articl…

Burgess et al evaluates the RCPs: iopscience.iop.org/article/10.108…
Read 10 tweets

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