Thread by @akoz33

OK, so now I will stick my neck out and make a prediction for the next four years and not one that I am happy to make.
I predict that during the next 4 years we will see many setbacks for human rights in various parts of the world, intensification of repression & perhaps even

large scale killing, maybe war. And that in thus respect the situation will be worse during Biden’s presidency than it was during Trump’s - in other words, it’s going to be exactly the opposite than people like @Kasparov63 suggested (perhaps only implicitly). And here are my

reasons why Biden will be worse for human rights world wide and better for dictators that Trump was.
I will start by granting @Kasparov63 and others that Trump never cared one bit for “human rights”, he probably does not know what the phrase means. And perhaps Biden does care, he

certainly is ready to say many things to that effect, something that Trump did only under pressure and with the greatest reluctance. I think it’s also True that Trump admired dictators and hard men of power - although he had little understanding of them. He had just as little

understanding of his own country’s politics and not only - one example of this being his early fascination with U.S. generals, which he tried to surround himself in the early days of his administration. But except for Flynn & one or two minor figures, they all proved a

disappointment.
The “strong men” Trump admired - Putin, Xi Jinping Kim, & Erdogan also proved a disappointment because none of them gave Trump the “great deal” that he promised & that was supposed to crown his presidency & give him his second term. He did manage to actually

something very positive in the Middle East, but this was very much his second choice, a consolation prize that he turned to after it became clear he would not achieve any of his bigger objectives. Why Trump succeeded in the Middle East is an interesting question that I have

addressed briefly although it’s certainly worth of a more thorough study. But the basic reason was simply that Trump abandoned the obviously wrong assumptions that were made by numerous “experts” (nowhere was the “Death of Expertise” a more positive development than in U.S.

Middle East policy) and essentially all US administrations at least since 1948. But this is a digression. I’ll go to the main point.
There were two things about Trump that acted as a restraining factor on Putin, Erdogan, Xi, to lesser extent Kim and also other more minor

figures. The first thing was that they still had hopes of making some sort of deal with Trump on their terms. As Bolton points out in his book, Trump came close, on a few occasions to accepting a deal of this kind with China & with North Korea but retreated when he realised that

it would be rejected by Congress & most of US public opinion & would not be the triumph that he needed. Nevertheless, Bolton was worried that Trump would eventually accept such a deal, of he could only gain by it. That is, of course, what Bolton meant by Trump being entirely

transactional. But that was also what Putin, Erdogan & Xi were hoping for (Kim probably gave up earlier). But they new that they would have to let Trump “save his face” - for Trump was indeed vulnerable to criticism at home about being a pushover for tyrants. Trump might not have

cared about “human rights” but he did care about criticism. Besides, of course, Trump could be vengeful and unpredictable. Even if he did not care about some atrocity or other thousands of miles away, he did care about being embarrassed or humiliated & could be dangerous when

this happened. So with Trump as President, it was better to be careful.
The situation is completely opposite with Biden. Biden will of course speak loudly about human rights, condemn abuses, either personally or through others. But the dictators know that they can get what they

want from Biden without any need “to be nice to him”. They will get it because the Biden administration will say “it’s in our interest”. We give Russia a nuclear missile treaty, no matter how it behaves, “because it is in our interest”. We help the Iranian regime to strengthen

it’s hold on power because “if we don’t, it will become even worse”. We give things to a China because “global warming” is the greatest threat to life on earth” so we have to be nice to the Chinese so they collaborate. Now just ask yourself about the logic of this. China has

excellent science. China knows as much about climate as the West. If global warming is really such a threat, will the Chinese not know it, without the West having to make concessions? Doesn’t even the CCP want the Earth to survive? So why exactly does the West need to make any

concessions at all? But from the point of view of China, Russia, Turkey things look clear: they are going to get what they want from Biden because it’s “in America’s interest”. So they don’t need to give anything in return. They won’t get flattering words from Biden that they

used to get from Trump - well, they can live without them.
And a big bonus is, they don’t have to worry as they had to do with Trump, that they might anger him and then he will order a missile strike against Syria, the killing of Russian mercenaries or of another Soleimani. And

that means, they basically have 4 years to do largely as they please.