1/7
While there was a certainly a long period in which provincial growth rates collectively exceeded the national growth rate, Shehzad, they have been more closely in line over the past few years. In fact when I counted up 2020 GDP province by province, I came up with...
While there was a certainly a long period in which provincial growth rates collectively exceeded the national growth rate, Shehzad, they have been more closely in line over the past few years. In fact when I counted up 2020 GDP province by province, I came up with...
https://twitter.com/shehzadhqazi/status/1356452169705271296
2/7
RMB 101.24 trillion, vs the national NBS figure of RMB 101.59. That's not a big difference, but at least it is on the "unexpected" side.
Obviously there are other problems with the data – you found many instances of fudging, while I worried more about the capitalization...
RMB 101.24 trillion, vs the national NBS figure of RMB 101.59. That's not a big difference, but at least it is on the "unexpected" side.
Obviously there are other problems with the data – you found many instances of fudging, while I worried more about the capitalization...
3/7
in the past 15-20 years of what should've been expensed (necessary if they are to target GDP growth rates above the real growth rate of the underlying economy) – and the provincial data is clearly worse than the national data: even Beijing has acknowledged this many times.
in the past 15-20 years of what should've been expensed (necessary if they are to target GDP growth rates above the real growth rate of the underlying economy) – and the provincial data is clearly worse than the national data: even Beijing has acknowledged this many times.
4/7
The BIS data is nonetheless interesting because it seems to confirm what we all knew. The country's economic performance is far more bumpy than the data suggest. There is an enormous amount of volatility in the provincial data that shows up nowhere in the national data.
The BIS data is nonetheless interesting because it seems to confirm what we all knew. The country's economic performance is far more bumpy than the data suggest. There is an enormous amount of volatility in the provincial data that shows up nowhere in the national data.
5/7
This is not because of a low correlation among the provinces. One of my favorite sets of graphs in the BIS report is on page six, where the BIS show nominal GDP growth for China and for the provinces collectively on one graph and then real GDP growth on the other. It is...
This is not because of a low correlation among the provinces. One of my favorite sets of graphs in the BIS report is on page six, where the BIS show nominal GDP growth for China and for the provinces collectively on one graph and then real GDP growth on the other. It is...
6/7
clear that nominal growth rates are extremely volatile at both the provincial and national levels.
The real magic occurs when the GDP deflator is calculated. It barely reduces the volatility of the collective provincial data, but the deflator eliminates nearly all...
clear that nominal growth rates are extremely volatile at both the provincial and national levels.
The real magic occurs when the GDP deflator is calculated. It barely reduces the volatility of the collective provincial data, but the deflator eliminates nearly all...
7/7
volatility in the national data. In fact from 2012 onwards GDP, quarterly growth is practically a straight line. This is either a wonderful coincidence or a carefully, and purposefully, constructed deflator.
volatility in the national data. In fact from 2012 onwards GDP, quarterly growth is practically a straight line. This is either a wonderful coincidence or a carefully, and purposefully, constructed deflator.
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