For the first time, GOOG segmented its cloud revenues/income separately, and overall revenue was >20% in 4Q which led to +7% after-hours reaction yesterday.
Here are my notes from earnings/press release.
2/ In the last quarter, here is the segment-wise growth:
Search +17.4%
YouTube ads +46.0%
Google Network Members +22.9%
Cloud +46.6%
Cloud more than doubled in the last two years.
Other bets losses $4.5 Bn in 2020 (vs $4.8 Bn in 2019)
3/ Operating margin in Q4 ~28%
FCF margin in Q4 ~30%
One of the big takeaways was the core business was even MORE profitable than most investors thought since cloud had -42.9% operating margin.
$GOOG's search business is a good comp for Fed in terms of "printing" money. JK.
4/ "you can track takeout and delivery orders when you book or order from Google Maps"
"More than 0.5 million channels livestreamed on YouTube for the first time in 2020"
"videos in our new Shorts player are receiving 3.5 billion daily views."
5/ Google Pay app is now used by >150 mn people in 30 countries.
Cloud backlog $30 Bn now (from $19 Bn in Q3)
# of Deals >$250 Mn became >3x
Waymo is providing hundreds of fully AV rides per week
Retail searches >3x YoY
Cloud operating losses flat YoY
6/ No direct answer to the question of long-term cloud margins; mostly just focusing on investing given the large TAM. Scale benefits will come later.
7/ Direct Response, nonexistent 3 years ago, has been a smashing success.
There's a reason Masterclass was flooding YouTube. It simply works.
"We now reach more 18- to 49-year-olds than all linear TV networks combined."
8/ Advertising on YouTube TV is still "very very early"
"we heard from customers, they have a very strong interest in advertising and streaming environments."
End/ Thanks to @theTIKR for the transcript. Feel free to join by clicking this (no affiliation): tikr.com/MBI
I also publish one deep dive every month on a publicly listed company.
"At IAC, 2020 was a year of giving back. Not just giving back via spinoffs or distributions to the shareholders who have supported us, but giving back to the communities that have enabled us."
A very stakeholder friendly into :)
2/ $1 invested in Silver King ( $IAC predecessor) in 1995 would be $40 today, which is 16% CAGR over 25-yr i.e. 50% higher than $SPY
What an incredible track record.
3/ $ANGI
Fixed price model generated $160 Mn in 2020. More data points in terms of how fixed price perfectly fits in.
$ANGI, however, dropped ~10% after seeing lukewarm growth in January. I expect $IAC to really hone its focus on ANGI once Vimeo spin-off.
"If you get it right, a few years after a surprising invention, the new thing has become normal. People yawn. And that yawn is the greatest compliment an inventor can receive."
The market collectively nodded to that with +0.6% reaction.
2/ The best owner-operator perhaps the world has ever seen finally takes a backseat from the Everything Store, but pretty sure he won't be chilling.
"In the Exec Chair role, I intend to focus my energies and attention on new products and early initiatives."
3/ Andy Jassy, who had been with $AMZN since 1997 and became CEO of AWS in 2016 , will be the new CEO in 3Q'21.
While market’s reaction has been at best lukewarm to FB’s earnings, it is difficult to find faults on operating performance, but the temperature of the feud with $AAPL is rising exponentially.
Here are my notes for Q4.
2/ DAU +11% YoY; MAU +12%; Family DAP +15%
Revenue +33% YoY; Ad revenue +31%
Europe +35%, North America +31%, APAC +29%, RoW +25%
# of impressions +25%, avg price/ad +5% (first-time in a long time)
Other revenue reached $886 mn, up 156% driven by Quest 2
3/ Operating margin +46% (+400 bps)
FCF $9.4 Bn, up ~90% YoY (what?!)
FCF margin +33.6%, up by ~1,000 bps (what?!)
Outlook: expect topline to be stable or modestly accelerate in 1H, but decelerate in 2H because of tough comps
Mark Sellers once gave a famous speech to a group of Harvard MBAs. It was titled, "So You Want To Be The Next Warren Buffett? How’s Your Writing?"
In his speech, he equated writing well to being able to think clearly.
2/8 It makes intuitive sense, and in general, I agree.
If you want to be the next "Buffett", you probably do need to write clearly, speak eloquently, be quantitatively oriented, and perhaps more importantly, be lucky.
3/8 But I wonder whether it is harder for good writers to change their mind.
The whole thing sort of reminds me of competitive debates. During college, I got the opportunity to adjudicate competitive debates. I even went to World University Debating Championship.
My personal portfolio is fairly concentrated with just 11 stocks, but top 4 is ~70% of total portfolio.
Is this level of concentration by choice? My guess is probably not. Here's why.
2/4 As an analyst, I probably know just 25-30 stocks reasonably well.
If you know just 25-30 stocks, do you have any other alternative than being concentrated?
Unless I am eliminating more stocks that I know fairly well, how much stock picking is really happening?
3/4 I wonder whether concentrated portfolio on fintwit is *mostly* a function of age.
Younger investors have little alternative than being concentrated. It is only the older investors (or anyone who actually understand a lot of companies) who probably have an actual choice.
I have listened to my fair share of podcasts related to $ETSY, but I thought @HarryStebbings interview of Josh Silverman, CEO of Etsy, was an exceptional one.
It not only helped me understand Josh better, but also gave a lot to ponder.
2/9 Josh categorically denies that Etsy is a niche e-commerce player focusing on handmade stuff.
He thinks Etsy is competing on the "special" segment which is anything but niche.
3/9 At the very end of the episode, he said something interesting. Let me quote him:
“I think there is an implicit notion in the market that there is going to be millions of individual places to buy things online. If you are following the market cap of Shopify, Wix, Stripe etc..