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David Henig Profile picture
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3 Feb, 5 tweets, 1 min read
UK politicians of all stripes have used the EU as a punchbag / excuse for many years. In that we were true Europeans, other Member States do exactly the same. There is negligible cost. But as non-members there probably is a cost to axting in the same way. Is it still worth it?
One of the reasons I reject the idea the UK was somehow 'not European' - because our behaviour as members was not as different as many claimed. But as others have suggested, you may get a result as non-members by being more pro-EU than members.
UK politics is in a confused state with regard to trade and external relations. Unable to make the (cynical but necessary?) leap to EU as friends, a one-way special relationship, no wonder we seek solace on the other side of the world. Old habits, but distance...
To be fair I think Boris Johnson actually gets the need to be friendly to the EU. But he rides the waves of opinion more than shaping them. Not sure any other politician right now quite understands where we are. Might take some time for the necessary EU reset.
NB being friendly to the EU very different to rejoining. If anything the first will make the second more difficult. But those Brexit partisans motivated by destroying the EU care little about that. However suspect wiser heads will at some point prevail.

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More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig Profile picture
5 Feb
Long thread. My view - the UK has since 2016 underestimated what goods border checks mean, and still does. That makes it very difficult for the EU to respond effectively to suggestions the operations of the protocol must be seriously changed. Especially after a month.
If the UK government went to the EU and said "here are three things that if you do we will resolve internal UK issues like unionist opposition to the protocol" then that is interesting. "Here are 20 things and we still don't guarantee we won't be back for more" is almost useless.
Let us be blunt the EU fear the UK wish to erode the Northern Ireland protocol to nothingness with a series of demands that never end. So yes this is about disruption, but it is also about trust. And that needs the UK side to change - such as the PM to admit there are checks.
Read 5 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
5 Feb
Interesting thread, expect to see the rate of vaccinations to rise in France in the coming months, as I suspect also to be the case in many other developed countries. Adds to previous suggestions that covid shows modern globalisation is stronger than national exceptionalism.
Not that relatively equal nation states can't get advantages in a globalised world, but the speed of information and goods transmission means they are likely to be short lived. Suggests to me the long term fundamentals are more important than short term actions.
A Brexit angle on covid and globalisation? One fundamental is changed, the level of our trade integration with the EU. But not others, such as our general demand for regulation or strength in services.
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
5 Feb
New @instituteforgov report on managing UK-EU relationship. I would start in a different place, and I think get to a different result - our priorities should be resolving trading issues and influencing future regulations, plus general political relations. instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/…
I think we get distracted by the elaborate committee structures set up by UK-EU treaties. The EU aim to do this with everyone. The only way we're special is we have two treaties so two sets of committees. That's actually quite revealing in its way. Image
So how do the committes help us if we have day-to-day business issues, as we do and will, or want to try to influence EU regulation? They don't, necessarily. This is going to have to be the same stuff as we do with every country in the world. Only more so, more at stake.
Read 10 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
4 Feb
Admitting Brexit has a cost?
Might start a Brexit dictionary. In this case "absurd" means perfectly normal outside of a single market. bbc.com/news/amp/enter…
Just wait until UK Ministers discover that every country has non tariff barriers to trade and the only group of countries to remove them almost completely are the EU plus EEA countries.
Read 7 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
4 Feb
Integrated supply chains like this affect all sectors of the economy, and are in turn affected by greater barriers. ft.com/content/9fb6b5… Image
Someone made the very good point to me earlier this week that even small companies can have their own global supply chains - technology raised that possibility. But now many UK companies are disadvantaged.

My paper published earlier this week. ecipe.org/publications/g…
So why don't we bring the entire supply chain back to the UK like in the 1970s? Because that will not produce the same quality of goods at the same price. And we'll be hopelessly uncompetitive compared to those drawing on a range of inputs. Image
Read 5 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
4 Feb
Dial down the politics and uncertainty and Northern Ireland has a potentially strong offer to business. Unfettered goods access to EU, mostly unfettered to GB, plus large numbers of population eligible for dual passports so can work across UK and EU.
In general the UK will do better with the EU once it stops treating those who want to negotiate better outcomes as opponents, and moves away from tried and failed techniques of bluster followed by retreat.
What is the UK gaining from this refusal to fully recognise the EU Ambassador? A good headline at the expense of an ability to influence our major trading partner and a global regulator?
Read 4 tweets

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