Thread by @DavidHenigUK

Interesting thread end point end point. I hope, and I could be wrong, that the UK government knows that to actually trigger protocol safeguard mechanisms would be incredibly counter-productive in showing a total lack of good faith. I suspect this is more an idle threat.

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1357001769826533376

Obviously the UK government is under pressure from the DUP to renounce the protocol. But that's been true for 15 months. They are under pressure from EU and US not to do so. And that pressure has been more important to date, and probably wil continue to be so.

Then the UK government is under pressure trying to protect the PM who denies an Irish Sea border, while trying to make things better which Michael Gove and team knows means ignoring what the PM says. All together very tricky.

I think it is the tensions in the UK position on Northern Ireland that lead to an overly aggressive letter, to try to placate the DUP and PM while basically inviting the EU to do something to make things a bit better. Using the Commission's mistake as the excuse.

Also remember that the UK business community is suffering right now from the trade barriers internal and external with the EU. Setting off a new bout of uncertainty as to trading relations is going to increase economic losses. Those EU checks can still get worse.

The UK letter does give the EU a problem to solve, brought on by their own carelessness last week. But the long term problems of the Northern Ireland protocol remain on the UK side, and the letter should be seen in that context. Minor attempted blacklamail, major plea for help.

This though is true...

https://twitter.com/APHClarkson/status/1357011797258207235

Great insights here from @Usherwood

https://twitter.com/Usherwood/status/1357012324515794944

Overly aggressive UK letter on Northern Ireland gives EU an easy comeback.

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1357067995739209737

The latest @pmdfoster thread suggests a gulf of opinions on Northern Ireland between EU and UK. But bluntly a UK government unwilling to admit what it has signed up for and with the US looking on with interest is not in a strong position.

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1357078869581443072

There is the world of difference between the UK government saying "we screwed up, we didn't realise what we signed up to" and "we don't care what we signed up for, you fix it" on Northern Ireland. And guess what, the EU did the first, the UK the second. Doesn't fit who has power.

So let's say the EU doesn't do what the UK demands in Northern Ireland. What then? The UK is on its own. Exactly the reason the threats to tear up the protocol previously failed.

The UK government were given a golden opportunity to make some beneficial minor fixes to the Northern Ireland protocol by the EU's mistake last week. Instead the DUP demanded fundamental change and the government followed. Returning the UK to a weak position.

Approaching five years of successive UK governments not understanding the fundamentals of the issues of Brexit with regard to Northern Ireland. Instead looks like we're going around again. Night all...