Thread by @ClimateAudit

in all my life, I've never seen a Globe and Mail front page like this. Vaccine deliveries to Canada have collapsed. Provinces have set up distribution but have NOTHING to distribute. Total fiasco.

2/ federal government's information page on vaccination to date and future deliveries hasn't been updated in two weeks. canada.ca/en/public-heal…

3/ Canada dependent on vaccines from EU, which were cut to zero for us (but no one else). EU instituted export controls, so Trudeau's ostentatious rollout plans are now in dust.

4/ the vain and ostentious Trudeau fancies himself as a boxer and repeatedly puffed his "plan" for 6 million vaccine doses by end of March. However, as Mike Tyson observed "everyone has a plan until they're punched in the mouth".

5/ Trudeau's "plan", now that Canada's been punched in the mouth, is an announcement that Canada will build a factory in Montreal for a still untested and unproven vaccine to be ready by September. Sure. More likely Sept 2022.

6/ the federal "plan", as stated less than 20 days ago, called for 6 million doses by Mar 31 (of which 929K already supposedly in hand as of Jan 15) and 1 million/week in 2nd quarter for furthe 20 million by Jun 30.
ctvnews.ca/health/coronav…

7/ not easy to locate coherent schedule for the 6 million doses. Interpretation below drawn from archive web.archive.org/web/2021011217… plus my calculation of March schedule needed to reach targets.

8/ Pfizer was supposed to ratchet up to ~350-460K doses per week by Feb, and Moderna to go from ~230K every 3 weeks to 230K every week in March. Then overall deliveries jump from ~580K in March to 1MM/week in April.

9/ last Fri, Trudeau said we were still "on track" to meet end Mar target. Much noise about EU approving another Pfizer delivery but it was only 50K. To catch up, we need to increase from 50K next week to 522K and keep it up. Maintaining 50K might be more realistic ie 16% of plan

10/ to meet Moderna target of 2 MM by end March, we need to increase from 150K every 3 weeks to 272K. Ain't going to happen.

11/ it seems very plausible that in the period from mid-Jan to end-March, the "roll out" that Trudeau govt publicized so lavishly, will net about ~1.05MM doses vs planned 4.95 MM doses - about 21% of "plan".

12/ provincial premiers, including @fordnation, who prepared vaccination teams based on federal promises, are left holding the bag.

13/ worse is that so majority of now even more scarce vaccines were appropriated by young less vulnerable HCWs leaving vulnerable seniors unprotected, so pressure on hospitals and deaths are worse than they might have been.

14/ while Canadian vaccine supply is a fiasco, COVID levels in Canada remain well below levels in US. Ontario has lower current (7-day running average) COVID than every US state except Hawaii. Some provinces have almost no COVID. ctvnews.ca/health/coronav…

15/ no story in Canada is or should be bigger than collapse of COVID vaccine deliveries. So what does CTV lead with? Trudeau designation of Proud Boys as a terrorist group. I don't know which is more pathetic: Trudeau govt or sycophantic media.

16/ Fortin says Pfizer deliveries resuming w/o Feb 15 and back on schedule w/o Feb 22.

The statistic on interruption is deceptive, as it includes one pre-curtailment week. In 3 weeks from Jan 25, plan was nearly 1 MM vaccines (943K), actual 82K (<10%).
globalnews.ca/news/7620092/c…

17/ if this is correct and it's only a 3-week delay, it's frustrating that Canada has been treated so much worse than any other customer, but things will go on. I'm worried that shipments from EU will not resume as advertised. I hope I'm wrong.