So, how are we doing with covid? Nationally, reported incidence has fallen from around 76 cases per 100,000 population per day to about 43. Better! But not yet good. Thresholds are contentious, but I think 20 as a first goal and 10 as a second goal are reasonable to start. 1/
Nationally, those thresholds correspond to approx. 66,000 and 33,000 daily cases, respectively. Right now, we’re at ~140,000 cases reported each day on average, so we need to more than halve incidence to get to Goal 1. 2/
What do 20 and 10 cases per 100,000 per day get you, practically? We will still be masking and distancing, for sure. In VT, where reported incidence is currently about 21, in a group of 10 people there is about a 10% chance someone has covid (caveat ahead) 3/
In HI, where reported incidence is 7, that chance is ~4%. In contrast, in CA which is similar to the national average of 43, there is ~21% chance someone in a group of 10 has covid. Whether a 4% chance is low or not is subjective, but it’s better than 21%. 4/
These estimates assume 1 in every 5 cases is diagnosed and estimates are sensitive to this assumption. Source is a risk assessment calculator by @joshuasweitzcovid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu 5/
I’m not sure when we'll get to 20 or 10 daily cases per 100k. It took us about a month to go from 76 to 43, if that gives you any sense. But as is painfully obvious by now, there are no guarantees that things will improve continuously. They are also very capable of worsening. 6/
Masks, distancing, ventilation, avoiding gatherings, getting vaccinated when eligible. These are the tools we have to continue the long trip down the tall mountain. The variants may throw us a curve ball, but if we keep driving down transmission we can get to a better place. 7/7
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Fantastic development. This test is already authorized for home use without a prescription, including in children and people without symptoms. Increasing supply critical to allow people to easily access tests.
The test was authorized in Dec but supplies are limited. The Biden Admin is investing in expanding manufacturing capacity. It will take a while (months, probably) for that to result in more supply available to consumers, but we'll need tests for a long time so still useful.
The ~$30 price point is a little high to keep a few in the bathroom cabinet, but it will be a nice option. Looks like the Federal government will keep some of the supply, will be interesting to see how they are deployed. npr.org/sections/coron…
I could not be more thrilled that the Biden-Harris Administration has announced an intention to create a National Center for Epidemic Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics @dylanbgeorge 1/ whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/…
@dylanbgeorge This idea has a long history, with dozens of brilliant scientists, policymakers and innovators behind the wheel, including many who roll up their sleeves every day to make sure our leaders have what they need to fight outbreaks effectively @dylanbgeorge 2/ foreignaffairs.com/articles/unite…
But they shouldn’t have to self-organize or do this on a volunteer basis. We need a standing capability that can advance the science by creating and improve epidemic models and outbreak analytics… @dylanbgeorge 3/ centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-work/publi…
There are around 30 big counties, with a combined population of over 12 million, where upwards of 40% of the population has been infected. It's stunning how hard the pandemic has hit part of the US.
Many of these counties have large institutions like prisons and jails, universities, and manufacturing or food production facilities. The NYT keeps a useful list of outbreaks in group settings. nytimes.com/interactive/20…
I’m volunteering w/ the Covid-19 Symptom Data Challenge. Colleagues at CMU and UMD have been surveying people (e.g. on Facebook) whether they or people they know have covid-like symptoms. The goal is to explore how this data can be useful for tracking the virus. 1/
The CMU team has some analyses exploring uses for the data. They found, for example, an association between covid-like illness and covid incidence at the state level in July. 2/
This seems promising at the county level as well, but there is a lot more exploration of the data to be done. What else can we do with this data, and how can it be useful to inform public health? That’s what the challenge is about – data discovery for public health. 3/
Today I had the honor of testifying on reopening K12 schools for the House Select Committee on the Coronavirus Crisis. Here is what I said. 1/
It was exactly 3 mos ago that I last testified - we had 25-30k cases and >2k deaths daily. I said then that I feared complacency, that we would become numb to the crisis and would again create the conditions that led to us being the worst affected country in the world. 2/
Since then, we have new therapies, we’ve made progress on finding a vaccine, and many more tests are available. But in other ways, the complacency I feared has come to pass. We have 55k+ new cases daily, and deaths are again rising. 3/
If I told you in March or April that we would still have a 60-70k daily cases in July, what would you think? Now carry that forward. Where do we want to be in Sep, Oct, Nov & how do we get there? Answering that question has to be priority #1. It's time to reset the US response 1/
Colleagues and I are out with a new report today with 10 recommendations for how the US should chart a new course. Here’s a thread with a quick rundown of the 10 - centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-work/publi…
1. Encourage and, where appropriate, mandate things like physical distancing, masks, and limit on indoor gatherings. Without these measures in place, it will be difficult to maintain control of an outbreak or turn the corner on an outbreak that is accelerating.