Since we discovered flu is a virus, we wanted to know how it transmitted. Studies found through the air, but used high doses.
So authors wanted to go low.
No, not like that. Low dose.
Authors used a system that approximated coughs, etc.
Methods:
Blah blah serial dilutions were prepared. Blah blah breathe it in in 52 seconds. Blah blah passive voice stinks.
Let's skip. YOU read the thing if you're into methods.
Results: Now we're cooking!
So, some people had illness. The ones with the + signs. Nobody else did.
INTERESTING 1: The antibody test was positive, even though no signs of illness, on the high TCID50 doses.
INTERESTING 2: Subject 20 threw up 30 times and had the highest antibody response, although receiving a small dose.
Discussion:
- authors caveat that results crude, system limits not known.
- authors then calculate the TCID50 for influenza when administered by aerosol.
Note that the TCID50 (the concentration of virus that is required to infect 50% cell plates exposed to it) accorded with mouse studies.
INTERESTINGLY: It took a LOT less to infect by aerosol than nasopharyngeally (the box behind the nose).
Took ~0.6 to 3 by aerosol.
~30 nasopharyngeally.
Conclusion was small amounts of virus can infect. This was interesting in light of the recent (in 1970) discovery that natural transmission can release such small amounts.
Also, that low levels of neutralizing antibody may not protect against illness.
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Outbreak report about the Wisconsin summer camp (an overnight camp) at which there was a 76% infection rate has now been ADDED to the timeline of infections.
[ed: 76% attack rate sure doesn't look like your grandpa's flu now does it?]
If you click on any of the pictures, or links in the text, you go straight to the report itself.
So this timeline can be used as a summary of outbreak reports. Same with the history timeline.
[ed: By the way flu attack rates vary widely. On a plane in 1974 where the plane was stopped for 4 hours on the tarmac flu spread with an attack rate of 72%.
[From a chat. Someone asked what the origin for most infection comes from close contact]
From the epi reports where you ask the person what they did for a week, etc, and then find that they were close to a positive at some point, so the conclusion is "aha, close contact"
You're never going to know if its because of the 2m with that person, or being in some small room with someone else, because nobody is looking for air spread. Conclusion is that it's the close contact.
Why? because EPI STUDIES ARE ALWAYS LOOKING FOR DROPLET
Every question, etc, asked, is from the point of view that nothing except certain specific viruses (measles, etc.) are airborne.
Because remember, to them, if air, R0 would = a billion.
If we look at past experience with cold CoVs, we could expect reinfections to be common - say 1-3 year cycles - but with fewer symptoms, less shedding, and shorter course. (threads below)
120 years we should have known this. Be generous say 80). We should have been prepared for it, but experts mangled the science so we aren't ventilating.
Short thread of threads.
Before 1850, miasma theory said disease came out of swamps and killed you. Nobody knew how.
~1850 Snow says cholera in the water (ppl thought in the air).
~ 1860 discovered bacteria. They didn't live long outside body.
By 1887, a Dr. Chapin knew diseases floated, like scarlet fever. Not as contagious as measles.