It's open access, but here's the Twitter-friendly version...🧵
Several papers and reports have flagged that "net-zero" targets allow some level of CDR to balance out residual emissions, and worry that this could dilute action in various ways. They propose that the way to fix this is to keep separate targets for emissions and removals.
This isn't a theoretical argument, it's live now. The UK and other have set net zero targets; the EU is actively thinking about whether/how to include CDR.
My tl;dr headline is this: separate targets are at best only a partial approach to deal with these concerns, and could be a distraction from the much greater transparency needed. Instead, here are three things that should go with any (net) target:
👉1) Set the targets on a timescale consistent with achieving climate goals without overshoot. Importantly this means ambitious near-term action, which is the distinguishing feature of pathways with lower peak temperatures.
👉2) Publish a detailed plan of the measures to achieve the targets. Any traded offsets used must have high environmental integrity. The plan should be robust to potential under-delivery of measures. (All of this pertains to both emissions and CDR, btw).
👉3) Set out the carbon storage involved, and have plans to monitor and manage it. This includes CO2 stored from point sources (not just CDR) and should be differentiated by type (e.g. in trees or underground). Storage requires monitoring and plans to reduce & deal with leakage.
Also vital will be a skilled and enthusiastic Programme Manager (it's not all about the academics!). You will work closely with me, @SamFankahuser and Myles Allen, and I will consider you to be THE most important person in @OxfordNetZero 💪
Carbon offsetting is the reduction of your own balance of emissions by gaining credit for certified emission reduction or removal carried out by another actor.
It's not for everyone. Objections exist, both on grounds of ethics (is it right?) and practice (does it work?). But offsetting is widespread and set to grow as countries, cities and businesses all strive to set and meet #netzero targets...
The projection on the above chart was made in 2018. Very much pre-lockdown. The CCC report notes that estimates for UK 2020 emissions now range from a 2% to a 13% decline on 2019.
(2/n)
If we start from a 2 or 13% reduction in 2020 and continue the 2018 projections forward, you get the range within the dark blue dotted lines here:
Some interesting stuff about removal technologies in there - government realising they will likely be important for net zero. Not in scope for now but name checked as a topic to come back to in review (as soon as 2023).
It's an intriguing question how to include removals in an emissions scheme - is it the best way to get them to scale up, or will it lead to unexpected bad things? Responses to the consultation are divided. Would be a good topic for some clever researchers to look at.
In February I am joining Oxford University to start up an exciting new research effort in greenhouse gas removals (#GGR#NETs#CDR...). And no doubt other things around #NetZero, science & policy, etc. @TheSmithSchool@oxmartinschool
@TheSmithSchool@oxmartinschool While I am very much looking forward to getting back into academia, it's been a real pleasure working with the climate scientists and others in @beisgovuk (many lurk on Twitter - you know who you are!)
Obviously people have very different views about "offsetting" your carbon emissions, so YMMV. But this seems about as close to a gold standard offset as one can get.
Works out at just over 80 EUR per tonne of CO2 removed, if I haven't completely forgotten how to do maths...