Thread by @jonworth

The replies to this tweet about import controls on goods coming into UK from EU from 1 July are really interesting

Here, once again, we're in a denial of reality phase of Brexit

And once again how to break that cycle is hard to see

🧵 1/10

https://twitter.com/jonworth/status/1357323705983119360

🇪🇺 sees the reality of how checks are going to have to work - for both sides - and sees any slippage of timetables as a problem. If 🇬🇧 cannot meet the 1 July deadline - just like any Brexit deadline - the question is *WHEN* it can, not *IF* it can or will

2/10

🇬🇧 sees it differently. Complying is costly and onerous, requires IT systems, sites for checks, and training of staff - so it pays lip service to complying, but keeps it vague as to how and when it will comply - the Government does not actually *DO* the necessary

3/10

It'd not surprise me in the slightest if a fortnight before the deadline Gove were to just tell the House of Commons "we will do all of this when we can, but not now", or words to that effect

4/10

We've seen similar this week with regard to N Ireland where Gove's letter to Šefčovič doesn't just propose a small extension, but an extension so long (to 2023) as to make exceptions quasi-permanent - is 🇬🇧 going to repeat the trick with regard to imports through Dover?

5/10

On this - as @OwenThomas1983 & @JornTychsen have pointed out in different ways to me - there is an equality of treatment problem. At the moment it's easier to ship 🇪🇺➡️🇬🇧 than it is 🇬🇧➡️🇪🇺, putting 🇬🇧 firms at a disadvantage...

6/10

... but what can those firms actually really *do* to get 🇬🇧 Government to act?

Plus the communication is hard - exporters on *both* sides would favour fewer barriers overall, although the same high hurdles both sides is fairer than the situation now

7/10

All of this poses a political problem for 🇪🇺 - the nagging fear that 🇬🇧 cannot be trusted to do what it says it will do, and actually plan to deal with the new situation *that is the direct consequence of the Brexit Deal 🇬🇧 said it wanted*

8/10

On 🇬🇧 side, the pressure to really address any of this is minimal. Labour doesn't want to really touch any of it (Rachel Reeves seems determined to focus on the lack of customs officials more than anything else), and media attention to it all is minimal

9/10

Until the impact of its poor administration is felt at the ballot box or in the opinion polls by the Conservatives, I am not hopeful of any change.

Denial of the reality of Brexit is pretty damned persistent.

10/10