A peek inside my adaptive systems course starting on the 23rd of February.
In this thread, a list of what participants will learn.
1/N
MODULE #1: HARNESSING ANTIFRAGILITY
The organic is both antifragile (we lift weights → our muscles grow) and fragile (we lift too much → we injure ourselves).
What determines antifragility?
What's the relationship between it and fragility?
What to do about it? 2/N
3/ Antifragility can make us stronger (exercise → stronger muscles) or weaker (no exercise → muscles atrophy).
It can make us adapt (famine → we adapt by storing more nutrients) or maladapt (lack of famine → we take risks & store less nutrients, making us more fragile).
4/ What determines whether antifragility makes us stronger or weaker, adapt or maladapt?
What can we do ensure that we get stronger and adapt, rather than weaker and maladapt?
5/ You will learn what makes people and organizations fragile and what makes them antifragile.
You will learn how buffers and redundancy are double-edged swords, and how to use them properly.
6/ This module assumes that you've read Taleb's Antifragile (highly recommended).
The module doesn't talk about the contents of the book, but builds upon it, with practical implications.
If you haven't read it yet, there is a short pre-course up-to-speed session included.
7/ MODULE #2: THE ADAPTIVE BRAIN
Just as our body adapts to our environment, our decision making adapts to it too.
We like to think we take deliberate analytical decisions, but most of the time we take automatic decisions that are adaptations to our environment and experiences.
8/ To understand how people make decisions and to make better decisions ourselves, we must understand the adaptive processes of our brain.
This module explains how our decision making adapts to our experiences and environment; how it evaluates risk-taking and what can go wrong.
9/ You will learn principles and methods used by the most effective managers, marketers, and other behavioral change professionals.
More importantly, you will learn WHY they are used, so that you can tailor them to your specific field of application.
10/ MODULE #3: GROUP DYNAMICS
So far, we’ve seen how individuals adapt; both in the body and in the mind.
But how do group dynamics influence this? What happens when groups are heterogeneous?
How do behavioral change professionals develop change initiatives that work?
11/ What happens when ecosystems are competitive? How do competitors adapt?
(This is *not* about game theory, but rather mechanical adaptation and the factors that influence it.)
12/ MODULE #4: DESIGNING FOR ANTIFRAGILITY
Many want to become more antifragile or make their organization more antifragile. Great! But how to do it in practice?
And how to do it so that it adapts to what cannot be predicted?
Designing systems that adapt, the bottom-up way.
13/ You will learn how to set in place systems that not only make you and your organization antifragile, but also conserve the antifragility and prevent maladaptation.
14/ MODULE #5: EXAMPLES AND Q&A
Participants will have time, during the course, to ask questions based on their fields of work and interest.
I will craft a session on how to apply the learnings of the previous 4 lessons to their specific needs.
15/ THE APPROACH
In the modules, I explain the principles of adaptation *and* show examples from the real world and practical applications.
16/ Doing only the former results in sterile theory.
Doing only the latter might result in "copy & paste" without understanding the principles and limitations, with the result of spectacular failures.
Hence, both are needed, and both will be done.
17/ In particular, a great deal of importance is given to unintended consequences. They are inevitable, but how to use them as an input for antifragility?
And what can go wrong? And what about the unforeseeable?
18/ By the way, unintended consequences are often the result of how the system adapts to an action or policy.
One more reason to spend some time studying adaptive systems.
Societies are adaptive systems. What a policy does is less important than how people adapt to it.
Our body is an adaptive system. We lift weights not to move them, but for how our muscles adapt to it (they grow).
(thread, 1/N)
Teams are adaptive systems. In the short-term, a manager's decision matters for what it does. In the long-term, it matters for how the team adapts to it. What behaviors does it make more likely?
2/N
Markets are adaptive systems. Many strategies only work until the market adapts to them.
Marketing, sales, and strategy are about adaptive systems. In the long-term, what matters is how customers, competitors, and suppliers adapt to a new product.
3/N
A Nobel prize can tell us two things: how good is the recipient or how bad is the committee.
“Unless you have confidence in the ruler’s reliability, if you use a ruler to measure a table you may also be using the table to measure the ruler.” – @nntaleb
2/ I used to express Wittgenstein’s ruler as follows: the more the free parameters, the less you know what is being measured.
For example, last spring COVID mortality could have been informing us about how aggressive is the virus or how good is a country’s testing
3/ In addition, and this is the point of this new thread, it just dawned to me that Wittgenstein’s ruler is not just about the precision of the ruler but also about its choice.
Those who put too much ego in their car do things that are good for their car (eg spending Saturdays afternoon washing it) rather than things which are good for them (eg hanging out with their friends and family).
We do what is good for what we invested our ego in.
1/4
2/ Those who put too much ego in their job stop doing things that are good for them and instead do things that are good for their job.
Those who put too much ego in their political party stop doing things that are good for them and instead do things that are good for their party
3/ Those who put too much ego into racial discrimination stop doing things that are good for them and instead do things that are good for racial discrimination.
When Twitter banned Trump, I wrote that even though I don't like Trump and thought that the world would be better off without him, I was also against its censorship for fear of a slippery slope.
3 weeks later, did it happen?
Yes. Examples & implications 👇
1/8
2/ After Twitter, FB banned him. Then, Google suspended Parler from its store, Apple did it too, and finally Amazon banned it from its infrastructure.
3/ Two comments:
– What looks inconsequential if one small company does it is very consequential if all major players do it.
– It started with banning a few bad apples, it ended up with banning full categories of users.
(the latter should give the chills; also see tweet #5)
A common scenario at the office:
– The manager sets an unclear task
– The employee does it, but not well enough
– Because of the lack of clarity, the employee thinks he did it well enough
– Now the manager faces two options, both bad:
(Thread 1/7)
2/ Either the manager accepts how the employee did the task (sending the message that subpar performance is okay and lowering standards across the team),
Or he tells the employee he didn't deliver on an unclear objective, pissing him off and/or demotivating him.
3/ Lack of clarity is a problem that:
– Always comes to bite you back
– And you will have to address it at some point, willingly or unwillingly