Some Italian papers are talking abt the right wing coalition "breaking up", since the parties within it have different positions abt Draghi. Nothing is further from the truth. This is the usual good cop/ bad cop routine they have adopted many times before-which benefits them all.
The facts. Berlusconi has consistently asked for a "Government staffed by the best" to lead the country. Taking part allows him to influence allocation of the goodies of the Recovery Plan, election of next President, while fostering the image that -incredibly- Italian media...
...are unquestioningly perpetuating: that he is a "moderate", "anti-populist", pro-European & some sort of father figure who has de facto become almost super partes now.

This move helps him occupy this niche in view of the next election. It's only 7/8/9% of the electorate?
Possibly, but it's all that he needs to be the king maker & he has taken ownership of it very effectively.
Meloni was always going to say no. As I have repeated many times, none of the recent developments are about policies. Draghi could adopt a programme written by Brothers of Italy & she'd still say no. I think she is absolutely right in doing so.
This way, she keeps occupying a space that she already owns: the clearly right wing, uncompromising, "pure" niche within the coalition. Credibility is very important, & party she can realistically gain most votes from in near future remains the League. So she hammers the League.
I had been wondering what Salvini would do. The League still aims to represent the rich areas of diffuse industrialisation of northern Italy, the exporting powerhouse. Their view -voiced by League's n. 2, Giorgetti -is that a govt led by Draghi, which reassures the markets &...
... can credibly & efficiently distribute the cash that is coming Italy's way to help kick-start the economy is in many ways a good thing. & the League would also like to be in the room when names of the next President are discussed.
However, there is a problem & it's called Giorgia M. The League's recent statement: Draghi has to choose bwt us & M5S strongly suggests they are going for option B. As Renzi has shown us very clearly in recent days, when you do not want something to happen, set the bar too high.
If the various Giorgetti and co. do not manage to force Salvini to u-turn (which is possible), they will have made the right choice - in my view. Much better for them to stay outside the tent pissing in.
Easier for Draghi, too, incidentally. Forza Italia allows him to claim that his govt is fundamentally different from previous one, more of a "unity govt", hence "new". & he does not need to mediate btw Free & Equal on the left of the PD & Salvini.
The bottom line -which too many journos forget- is that, whatever happens in between, these three (and/or their predecessors) have ALWAYS come back together before a general election because - unlike their opponents- they have a clear idea re their identities, what they want &... to get there.

The only exception to this unity rule (since 1994, hence since the coalition was put together) was the 1996 election.
No matter how much they will be seen to disagree over the next 2 years, unless someone decides that it's not in their interest to renew the coalition (e.g. League + Meloni may decide that Berlusconi is no longer needed, given the polls) they will come back together yet again.

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More from @DrAlbertazziUK

3 Feb
Draghi has PD & Demolition Man in the bag already (yes, strange as it may sound, Renzi has literally no choice right now but to back him. & he will).

So he only needs to pick a couple of ministers M5S can "sell" to their grassroots...
... they don't even need to be party members (Conte wasn't, in fact Conte could well be one of them). Then he could pick one of two that Berlusconi likes. And he's done it.

(It's clear enough already that no-one is going to focus on policies, just look at the debate today...
... the guy could literally walk into Parliament carrying a blank sheet of paper & improvise for 15 minutes & it would not make the slightest bit of difference).
Read 4 tweets
3 Feb
This is now the proposal of ex-M5S leader Di Maio to get out of the impasse, avoid elections and still keep the party together.👇
In other words: support Draghi, but ask him to put together a "governo politico" (in the rest of the world simply known as: "a government").

See debate among M5S Parliamentarians here:…
There is even a precedent, the Ciampi govt of 1993. Ciampi was a former Governor of the Bank of Italy, hence a technocrat, however many of his ministers came from the parties that supported his govt.

In other words, technocratic govts come in different shades of grey...
Read 4 tweets
3 Feb
A detached govt of "technocrats" that only does "what is needed"only exist in some sort of parallel reality, of course.

In fact, it is a profoundly ideological construct.
Draghi will need to decide whether to appeal more to the M5S with his proposals - trying to stem the tide of opposition there - or whether to incentivise the League to back him.
He can of course choose ministers that are in good terms with certain parties (or even members), or pick them all "from the professions".

These are all inherently (and important) political acts that will decide if his govt even takes off.
Read 4 tweets
10 Apr 20
1/ Major Italian parties are sticking to the script concerning the recent agreement reached by EU finance ministers, according to whether they support the govt or not, & also what they need to do to compete with their own allies (e.g. League vs. Brothers of Italy). /THREAD/
2/ Makes perfect sense: the agreement is ambiguous, hard to interpret, hence citizens will take their cue from parties on whether glass half full or empty.

How these decisions will be framed in next couple days is crucial.
3/ Partito Democratico. Leader has not made comments via social media as yet (hello@nzingaretti!), but inevitably they’ll stick to the line of PD Finance Minister Gualtieri. Frame: All in all, a good first step, but Euro/Coronabonds still on the table (Netherlands say: not so)..
Read 15 tweets
19 Feb 20
So, apparently Italian govt will learn his fate tonight, as former PM & leader of tiny Italia Viva party, @matteorenzi, is hosted with great fanfare by major current affairs programme #portaaporta.
@matteorenzi He’s promised to make an important statement, certainly would prefer to "retire" @GiuseppeConteIT and change PM.

There’s a small hitch: he cannot know for sure how many senators from is own party are ready to switch sides & continue to support Conte if he pulls the plug on him.
@matteorenzi @GiuseppeConteIT 3/ & even if he knew that, he cannot know how many from Forza Italia & ‘gruppo misto’ (including former M5S reps) may be willing to do the same. Because he does not know what incentives good old PD & M5S may have offered them in private.
Read 22 tweets
30 Dec 19
1/ As the year draws to a close, a short THREAD on challenges and opportunities for the most important Italian parties next year.

Here we go.
2/ Risk for the Five Star Movement (M5S): to become an ex-party. It is losing representatives in Parliament due to several reasons, & votes in the country. No-one expects them to recover the levels of support enjoyed in 2018 anytime soon.
3/ ... which will only accelerate their decline even further..

Add to this that the number of MPs/senators is being cut considerably (ironically, due to legislation introduced by M5S...), & add the internal rule that prevents M5S reps from standing for election more than twice..
Read 36 tweets

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