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4 Feb, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Whoa! The Jewish Home is NOT RUNNING in the election at all! Officially supporting Naftali Bennett's Yamina. I did not expect this.
This is the first time in history that the Jewish Home, previously the Mafdal, previously Mizrachi, is not running in the election. It's the first time the letter ב has been freed up. This is the end of an era.
Or not: Apparently the Jewish Home is giving Yamina permission to use the letter ב instead of the letter י that it chose, under the condition that the letter ב will revert to the Jewish Home's ownership next election.
Jewish Home leader Chagit Moshe was also promised by Yamina a role as a minister.

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More from @IsraelexLive

Israeli Elections Live Profile picture
4 Feb
#ItBeganSevenMinutesAgoButNothingIsHappeningYet
Link to the live feed of list submissions for #IsraElex4:
"I am honored to present the first list of the day: The Pirates!"
Read 95 tweets
Israeli Elections Live Profile picture
3 Feb
This poll is slightly odd, as it doesn't realize that it's three scenario polls.

The first posits that Ra'am rejoins the Joint List.
The second posits that Ra'am rejoins the Joint List *and* Labor and Huldai unite.
The third posits a union of the four national-religious parties.
These three scenarios are in three completely different sectors of the public, so there probably aren't strong cross-contaminations in the what-ifs.

So, treating them individually:
1) If Ra'am rejoins the Joint List, they total 10 seats together. If they're separate, they total 12 seats but Ra'am is at the edge of the threshold and risks falling below.
Read 7 tweets
Israeli Elections Live Profile picture
3 Feb
#ItBegins
The first list submission for #Israelex4 has entered the room: Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid party.
This is conducted under the strictest of coronavirus safety protocols.
* Shoulder-high plexiglass barriers that don't prevent aerosol spread
* Masks worn at all times except while talking, when infection is highest
* Two-meter separation, long proven to be irrelevant to the virus
Read 62 tweets
Israeli Elections Live Profile picture
3 Feb
The chairman of the Pirate Party is trapped overseas because of the closing of the airports, and his deputy is ill and unable to come to the Knesset in person. This may prevent the Pirate Party from submitting a list this election.
The reason I wrote "may" rather than "will" is because the law explicitly allows for you to give power of attorney to somebody else to submit the list on your behalf. Which the Pirates are curiously uninterested in doing, since their plea to the CEC doesn't mention it.
Although list submission hasn't opened yet, apparently someone is hanging around the area wearing a pirate hat. So it looks like the Pirates finally and belatedly realized there was the power-of-attorney option after all.

Read 4 tweets
Israeli Elections Live Profile picture
3 Feb
I was mulling over this months ago, and I'm mad at myself that I forgot all about it when it became relevant.

The reason Yesh Atid grabbed first in line for list submission is because they want to claim the פה symbol before their former partner Blue & White can do so. #Israelex4
My guess is Judge Vogelman will not allow Blue & White to simply use the same two letters in reverse (הפ), or even just one of them alone (ה or פ), due to the potential for confusion. But they can use one of these and one free letter, if they like.
This also explains why Yamina is second. Like Yesh Atid, they also have former list partners who will fight them for the טב symbol.

That situation is more complicated because טב has belonged to the Jewish Home for decades. If Yamina tries to use it there may be legal challenges.
Read 4 tweets
Israeli Elections Live Profile picture
2 Feb
I'm retweeting this poll under protest and without analysis because the first scenario totals 121 seats and the results in the second weren't even provided.

Even by Israeli polling standards this is irresponsible. The media should refuse to hire Panels if they act this way.
By law, the CEC needs to be provided the internal details of every public poll. By sanity, the media clients who pay for polls should demand transparency from their vendors.

It is embarrassing that neither are doing their jobs, and that @TheJeremyMan - who has no way to force pollsters to comply - is the only one in the country even trying.

The state of Israeli polling is awful and the very media who complain about it deserve so much of the blame.
Read 6 tweets

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