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Kit Yates Profile picture
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5 Feb, 4 tweets, 1 min read
For the COVID-deniers:

Sure LoCKdOwNs DoN'T WorK.

TheY CleARlY HaVe No efFEct on NaTionAl lEvEl hoSPiTal aDMisSiONs!
IMPosSIBle to deTect aN IMpAct in hOsPiTAl adMiSsiONs aT a reGIOnal lEvEl!
Clearly NO iMPacT on INtenSIvE cARe bED oCCuPaNcY eITheR.

And if you believe all that, then you'll believe anything.
Wow, it took me far too long to put all those capital letters in the wrong place. I wonder why they do it?

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More from @Kit_Yates_Maths

Kit Yates Profile picture
5 Feb
Interview just now with @skynewsSam on @SkyNews
First up, estimates of R are below one nationally, cases, hospital admissions and deaths are all coming down quickly, but not as quickly perhaps as in the first wave due to more transmissible new variant and looser restrictions.
On to vaccinations. We have given over 10 million first doses which is a huge achievement. Coverage in the over 80s is 88% and in 75-79 it is 83% which are both really good figures. We need to keep pushing to get those rate up and or ensure we have good rates in lower age groups.
Suggestions yesterday that the Oxford-AZ vaccine can help to reduce transmission, which if true is potentially game-changing. Rather than just protecting individuals if we can stop them spreading the disease then we can drive down cases even more quickly.
Read 4 tweets
Kit Yates Profile picture
5 Feb
*Number nerd warning ahead*

So last week I posted about this discrepancy between Public Health England's (gov.uk/government/sta…) positivity rates and those given on the covid dashboard (coronavirus.data.gov.uk).

PHE positivity rates seemed to be coming down much faster than COVID dashboard rates at both national and regional level, despite both PHE and the Dashboard purporting to use the same metric (PCR testing) to calculate positivity.
After lots of to-ing and fro-ing with PHE we managed to establish that PHE are now including Lateral flow tests in their positivity figures (despite what it said in the report).

Lateral flow tests have ramped up a lot recently.

Why does this make a difference to positivity?
Read 11 tweets
Kit Yates Profile picture
29 Jan
Short clips from my @sky_news interview earlier.
Firstly, on R (0.7-1.1). This wide range masks a more mixed picture regionally, but even at a regional level there are only a few regions whose upper-end estimates are above 1.
R reflects what was happening a couple of weeks ago.
Death rates are still high with over 1000 people a day dying (28 days from a positive test - by date of death).
But daily death rates are now coming down reflecting the earlier falls in cases.
Over 1/4 of the UK’s covid deaths in this pandemic have occurred in the last 4 weeks.
Deaths will start to come down slowly, reflecting falls in hospital admissions/occupancy, but we are coming down from and extremely high level, so we can expect 10s of thousands of deaths to be reported over the coming months.
Read 4 tweets
Kit Yates Profile picture
29 Jan
Something strange is going on with the positivity data and I'm not sure what to make of it.
Might be of important for anyone who's following the data.
Perhaps you have a better idea about what's going on than me
@chrischirp @jburnmurdoch @COVID19actuary @RP131 @fascinatorfun
Case numbers appear to be coming down quickly (almost linearly over the last few weeks - UK).
Nothing too unusual in that, although it's always good to check the positivity rates in case this is caused by a decrease in testing.
Turns out testing hasn't decreased much recently.
Looking at English regional positivity rates on the COVID dashboard:
coronavirus.data.gov.uk
Paints a positive picture of decline in almost all regions (with the exception of the North West).
Read 10 tweets
Kit Yates Profile picture
25 Jan
A quick good news update on the state of play with vaccine delivery.
After a dip at the start of last week, delivery has continued to rise to almost half million doses a day. No dip on Saturday this week at least.
It's almost exclusively first doses being delivered now. 1/5
This steady performance is reflected in the cumulative number of doses delivered - up at almost 7 million as of Saturday.
2/5
Broken down by first and second dose coverage we can see that almost 10% of the UK population had received their first dose by Saturday.
3/5
Read 5 tweets
Kit Yates Profile picture
22 Jan
Finally lets finish with some good news with slides from the @IndependentSage briefing.
The delivery of the vaccine is ramping up.
You can see clearly where second doses (orange) were starting to be given before the strategy was changed and now its almost exclusively first doses.
Broken down by nation you can clearly see the rate (just first doses now) is increasing significantly. We're not up to the target rates we need yet, but if this continue then it won't be too long.
This seems positive for our ability to vaccinate the most vulnerable by Feb.
This is reflected in the rates of vaccination per hundred thousand people in each of the four home nations. It's increasing quickly in each country.
Read 4 tweets

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