Throughout COVID, any reporting of good news has been criticized as "COVID denial" that might cause people to "let down their guard" and subsequently die.

Thus, we have not paid attention to patterns that could indicate targeted policies to minimize deaths.

1/6
Examples:

* Very low fatality rate in children.
* Cases/hosps/deaths come in waves, at different times in different places.
* These waves have nearly the same shape/duration everywhere.

2/6
* We've never seen cases/hosps/deaths increase once they start plunging (except a minor double peak).
* Once a region exits a wave, they get several months of low activity before the next wave.

3/6
The failure of public health to acknowledge or discuss these phenomena must be addressed. They decided early on that their strategy would be to keep everyone as fearful as possible, ...

4/6
so they have carefully avoided discussing age-stratified fatality rates and seasonal patterns. Instead, they keep pointing to models that always show uncontrolled growth if we don't behave. These models have been wrong EVERY SINGLE TIME.

5/6
Examining why this virus behaves the way it does could help us learn more about how to prevent infections - but public health officials seem completely uninterested in the above points.

I can only hope there will be a reckoning at some point.

6/6

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More from @jhaskinscabrera

7 Feb
Florida Deaths - 2/7/21

Florida reported a net of 97 COVID deaths today. Changes were reported on 37 different days, going back to August 26.

Changes by month: August (+1), Sept (+2), November (+2), December (+5-1), January (+74), February (+14)

#RationalGround

1/6 Image
Reported deaths (as best we could find them - read bottom of the chart for more details):

Median age: 78
Minimum age: 26
Maximum age: 100
79% are 65 or older <- lower than usual

2/6 Image
Additions and deletions by date:

2/5 - 7
2/3 - 1
2/2 - 4
2/1 - 2
1/31 - 4
1/30 - 7
1/29 - 6
1/28 - 3
1/27 - 3
1/26 - 5
1/24 - 1
1/23 - 5
1/22 - 5
1/21 - 2
1/20 - 2
1/19 - 3
1/18 - 1
1/17 - 3
1/15 - 2
1/14 - 2
1/13 - 1
1/12 - 2
1/11 - 2
1/10 - 5
1/9 - 2
1/8 - 5
(cont.)

3/6 Image
Read 6 tweets
6 Feb
Florida Deaths - 2/6/21

Florida reported a net of 142 COVID deaths today. Changes were reported on 37 different days, going back to July 27.

Changes by month: July (+1), Aug (+2), Sept (+1), November (+2), December (+1), January (+98-2), February (+39)

#RationalGround

1/6
Reported deaths (as best we could find them - read bottom of the chart for more details):

Median age: 81
Minimum age: 30
Maximum age: 99
82% are 65 or older

2/6
Additions and deletions by date:

2/5 - 3
2/4 - 18
2/3 - 8
2/2 - 1
2/1 - 9
1/31 - 6
1/30 - 7
1/29 - 8
1/28 - 6
1/27 - 7
1/26 - 11
1/25 - 3
1/24 - 4
1/23 - 1
1/22 - 3
1/21 - 2
1/20 - 1
1/19 - 4
1/18 - 4
1/17 - 5
1/16 - removed 1
1/15 - 3
1/14 - 1
1/13 - 2
1/10 - 4
(cont.)

3/6
Read 6 tweets
5 Feb
Florida Deaths - 2/5/21

Florida reported a net of 210 COVID deaths today. Changes were reported on 36 different days, going back to August 31.

Changes by month: August (-1), September (-1), January (+178-1), February (+35)

#RationalGround

1/6
Reported deaths (as best we could find them - read bottom of the chart for more details):

Median age: 80
Minimum age: 28
Maximum age: 102
86% are 65 or older <- higher than usual

2/6
Additions and deletions by date:

2/5 - 1
2/4 - 6
2/3 - 16
2/2 - 3
2/1 - 9
1/31 - 10
1/30 - 10
1/29 - 9
1/28 - 17
1/27 - 20
1/26 - 8
1/25 - 13
1/24 - 11
1/23 - 7
1/22 - 10
1/21 - 10
1/20 - 5
1/19 - 10
1/18 - 5
1/17 - 3
1/16 - 4
1/15 - 2
1/14 - 2
1/13 - 3
(cont.)

3/6
Read 6 tweets
4 Feb
Florida Deaths - 2/4/21

Florida reported a net of 228 COVID deaths today. Changes were reported on 35 different days, going back to August 4.

Changes by month: August (+2), September (-1), December (+2-1), January (+201), February (+25)

#RationalGround

1/6
Reported deaths (as best we could find them - read bottom of the chart for more details):

Median age: 79
Minimum age: 28
Maximum age: 103
84% are 65 or older

2/6
Additions and deletions by date:

2/3 - 10
2/2 - 10
2/1 - 5
1/31 - 11
1/30 - 9
1/29 - 17
1/28 - 14
1/27 - 12
1/26 - 18
1/25 - 13
1/24 - 10
1/23 - 15
1/22 - 9
1/21 - 11
1/20 - 6
1/19 - 7
1/18 - 7
1/17 - 7
1/16 - 7
1/15 - 1
1/14 - 4
1/13 - 1
1/12 - 5
1/11 - 3
(cont.)

3/6
Read 6 tweets
3 Feb
Florida Deaths - 2/3/21

Florida reported 197 COVID deaths today. Changes were reported on 37 different days, going back to July 13.

Changes by month: July (+2), September (+2), November (+1), December (+2), January (+170), February (+20)

#RationalGround

1/6
Reported deaths (as best we could find them - read bottom of the chart for more details):

Median age: 79
Minimum age: 48
Maximum age: 101
89% are 65 or older <- higher than usual

2/6
Additions by date:

2/3 - 1
2/2 - 6
2/1 - 13
1/31 - 6
1/30 - 13
1/29 - 5
1/28 - 12
1/27 - 11
1/26 - 13
1/25 - 15
1/24 - 9
1/23 - 7
1/22 - 10
1/21 - 7
1/20 - 6
1/19 - 11
1/18 - 2
1/17 - 7
1/16 - 2
1/15 - 3
1/14 - 3
1/13 - 1
1/12 - 2
1/11 - 3
1/8 - 1
1/7 - 2
1/6 - 1
(cont.)

3/6
Read 6 tweets
2 Feb
Florida Deaths - 2/2/21

Florida reported a net of 137 COVID deaths today. Changes were reported on 30 different days, going back to July 11.

Changes by month: July (-1), August (-1), October (-1), January (+139-2), February (+3)

#RationalGround

1/6
Reported deaths (as best we could find them - read bottom of the chart for more details):

Median age: 79
Minimum age: 40
Maximum age: 105
88% are 65 or older <- higher than usual

2/6
Additions and deletions by date:

2/1 - 3
1/31 - 15
1/30 - 10
1/29 - 8
1/28 - 3
1/27 - 3
1/26 - 16
1/25 - 16
1/24 - 7
1/23 - 3
1/22 - 9
1/21 - 5
1/20 - 7
1/19 - 1
1/18 - 6
1/17 - 7
1/16 - 2
1/15 - 5
1/14 - 4
1/13 - 2
1/12 - removed 1
1/11 - removed 1
1/10 - 4
(cont.)

3/6
Read 6 tweets

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