Some thoughts about the UK’s stage approach of setting up a full border with the EU (text here from assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…) (short thread)
The UK opted for a phased approach to building up the border. This allows the government to build up the border control posts needed until July (see the first graph).
One would hope that this will give industry time to adapt, but I am not all too optimistic seeing the current issues. And it creates another issue: the illusion that the UK won’t impose the same type of border the EU imposes.
That might be politically advantageous (I have seen some peculiar SPS claims in that regard), but it has a serious downside: UK and EU industries might not be on the same page with regard to lobbying for simplifications. Which makes them less likely to be agreed.

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More from @hhesterm

29 Jan
That is a terrible idea. @MichelBarnier bbc.com/news/uk-northe…
I did not bother commenting on the export debate in general, because it felt like the old PPE debate. Everyone forgets that they are misbehaving, but looks only at the misbehaviour of the others. politico.eu/article/uk-cor…
But invoking Art. 16 ... no.
Read 5 tweets
27 Jan
Twitter. Today I saw idiotic takes on contract law that would make a 1L cry. I saw speculation that makes you wonder whether we actually need any basis in actual information or not. Don’t do that to me again. /1
One slightly more plausible take that also happens to not be convincing: the comparison of the contract with AstraZeneca (the one we don’t know) with that of Curevac (we do know). Why is that unlikely to say very much? /2
Because not only the product is different, also the functions and sizes of the companies involved. Curevac was the innovator. It has 500 employees and doesn’t even have the capacity to do a pharmaceutical trial (which is why they are still not on the market). AstraZeneca? /3
Read 6 tweets
26 Jan
Yes. There’s an institutional TCA structure. Yes, the Partnership Council will have to meet (and indeed soon because the deadline for provisional application needs to be moved). But let’s put this into context (thread)
Let’s start with the UK’s Association Agreement with Chile. Note that it has an institutional framework. There’s an Association Council. There’s an Association Committe. There are Special Committees. There’s the possibility to establish an Association Parliamentary Committee. /2
And there‘s a Joint Consultative Committee. And there’s a legal obligation to meet. Much like with the Partnership Council in the TCA. /3
Read 5 tweets
23 Jan
Praise to @tradegovuk . And it should be pointed out that they help UK business and thereby the UK. What they do saves jobs in the UK. theguardian.com/politics/2021/…
I should point out: they give advice in the regulatory environment as it is. If you are outside the single market and the customs union but want to serve many clients inside it, setting up a distribution centre makes sense...
(And as @JornTychsen rightly points out: EU business who used to send a lot of B2C from the EU might consider doing the same).
Read 5 tweets
19 Jan
What a fascinating detail that the keen eye of @RaoulRuparel has dug up. But a caveat applies (yeah, lawyers): as the provision stands it is an interesting precedent, but arguably not enough to resolve the situation. Why?
From a glance at the treaty provisions the cumulation rules seem similar. So what does the guidance refer to? Footnote 3 of Annex 2. Which reads ""Canada/EU" means products qualifying as originating under the rules of origin of the" CETA. (leaving out sentence 2)
So the legal rule here seems to merely relate to putting "Canada/EU" into the form. What then does the guidance do?
Read 5 tweets
15 Jan
And divergence is in the news again. And Peter gets the order exactly right: before we even get to rebalancing, we should have a discussion: do we actually WANT the different rules and here a fundamental problem kicks in (thread)
The EU debate has been messed up for a long time, because too often public debate became "the EU forces us to do X, how dare they". And the nuance was gone. What nuance?
The nuance that on the EU level much like on the national level some people push left, some people push right, some yell "vegan bonanza" others "beef boom" and in the end you get to an outcome, quite often with a significant UK impact.
Read 5 tweets

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