Arctic sea ice reflects the sun’s rays. As ice cover decreases, more of the sun’s rays are absorbed by the ocean, leading to further warming.

Summer sea ice will begin to totally disappear by 2035 (give or take 14 years), with catastrophic consequences in the Arctic, and beyond.
Scientists agree that impacts in the Arctic itself will be disastrous for people and wildlife.

I feel the word 'catastrophe' is correct for global impacts whether ice loss exacerbates already catastrophic warming and/or extreme weather a little or a lot.

"The Arctic system is trending away from its 20th century state and into an unprecedented state, with implications not only within but beyond the Arctic". ⚠️

+4 million people who inhabit the Arctic including 10% who are Indigenous are threatened.…
"..The prospect of loss of sea-ice by 2035 should really be focussing all our minds on achieving a low-carbon world as soon as humanly feasible."

This paper gives 2029 as an earliest…
This 2013 study suggested the 2020s, 2030s, or 2040s for summer sea ice loss, depending on the…
In 2020, this study confirmed that no matter what the emissions scenario ice would most likely disappear by 2049 at the very latest.

I would guess 2026-2035.…
Image from this article, which gives no idea how terrible Arctic ice loss will (or even could) be. By 2019 it was clear talk of 2100 in relation to sea ice was ridiculous and misleading.…

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More from @ClimateBen

2 Feb
Hi @GrogsGamut

Could you explain to your readers that the carbon 'budget' for dire 1.8C of global warming may already be negative (ie too late), and that we may be very close to a negative budget for deeply catastrophic 2C which may hit by 2034 and will likely hit by 2045 or so?
'17% (one-in-six) chance that the remaining carbon budget for 1.5C has already been exceeded'

Even with net-zero 2030 we could head well over 1.5C towards the theoretical Hothouse Earth danger zone.

The 1.75C 'budget' may have already been exceeded too.…
Until the public grasps the extreme mind-boggling urgency, there will be no meaningful action.

Thread confirming that today, with average temperature already at 1.25C (using a conservative, probably misleading C19th baseline), 1.8C may already be gone:
Read 5 tweets
1 Feb
1/Industrial capitalism is a poison.

Yes, greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced towards zero in the 2020s for any reasonable chance of decent human survival, however, global warming is just one part of our predicament. Chemical, plastic, light & noise pollution, deforestation
2/, destruction of fertile soils, wiping out of insects, birds, reptiles, amphibians, & mammals, the collapse of major ecosystems, overkilling of ocean and terrestrial life,..all of these and more are an immediate threat to Earth's species including primates.

3/Economic growth really is killing life on Earth. Both the IPBES and IPCC acknowledge the need for a total transformation of the global economy. The IPBES has specifically pointed to economic growth as the problem. Every policy we read about is a joke. We need emergency change.
Read 5 tweets
29 Jan
40% of Earth's plants, particularly trees, are threatened with extinction meaning most life on Earth is in immediate danger.

Economic growth based on destructive industrial agriculture, urbanization, dam-building, mining & logging can and must be…
The world’s seed-bearing plants have been disappearing at a rate up to 500 times higher than would be expected as a result of natural forces alone, according to the largest survey yet of plant…
'Researchers say the planet may be losing plant species more quickly than science can find, name and study them, which could have big consequences in the search for food crops that are resilient in the face of climate change and new medicines.'…
Read 5 tweets
28 Jan
A commitment to reach so called 'net zero' by 2050 and protect a mere 30% of land & ocean by 2030 is a commitment to continue emitting vast amounts of greenhouse gases while completing the destruction of ancient rainforests, coral reefs and Arctic sea ice. A commitment to horror.
'The combined prospects of an economic stimulus and infrastructure package—both of which will boost fossil fuel demand—spell a more prosperous 2021 and 2022 for the world’s biggest polluters.'…
Mammals, amphibians, reptiles and birds are also likely to disappear on a catastrophic scale in the Amazon and other naturally rich ecosysterms in Africa, Asia, North America and Australia if temperatures rise by more than 1.5C'
Emergency action required.…
Read 5 tweets
26 Jan
'For many of us, coffee is essential.'
A 'daily luxury'.

We don't need coffee, but we do need to transform the global food system away from Big Business Agriculture asap.

One thing not suggested, despite the ecological damage: stop drinking…
This is directed to myself as I haven't yet given coffee up, but I've slashed my intake towards zero drastically over the last 6 months. This month I've started cutting my chocolate intake. I mention this just out of interest and to confirm how serious is the ecological crisis.👍
That sounds ridiculous reading it back. Or does it? Imperfect communication on the need for both individual and system change and how they go hand in hand... Hopefully you get the idea.
Read 4 tweets
25 Jan
What does Professor Betts mean by 'runaway' in this discussion when he says,

"We haven't sort of set off any kind of runaway uncontrollable climate change yet, and in fact we may not do for a long time"?

We *may* not?!

Video (watch from 3mins45):

I have been told by scientists that there is no feedback scenario at 2C which moves us to something much hotter.

See this thread:

However, the Hothouse Earth theory is not dismissed by Betts, but he sees it as speculation:

'even if the self-perpetuating changes do begin within a few decades, the process would take a long time to fully kick in – centuries or millennia.'…

Read 4 tweets

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