Thread by @JefimVogel

Despite COVID, emissions are still way too high.
To limit global warming to 1.5 C, we need to *rapidly*
(i) decarbonise energy use AND
(ii) reduce energy use AND
(iii) decarbonise land use AND
(iv) reduce land use
Yes, ALL of these things SIMULTANEOUSLY.
How are we doing?
THREAD

1/ To limit warming to 1.5 C, global energy use must be completely decarbonised.

But the opposite is happening! Emissions per unit of energy use (‘carbon intensity of energy’) have been INCREASING since 2000 (largely due to increases in the share of coal, primarily in China).

2/ Rapid decarbonisation of energy use requires both a rapid roll-out of renewables AND a rapid phase-out of fossils. Not either-or: both-and.

3/ What not everyone knows/accepts: to limit warming to 1.5 C without relying on speculative negative emissions technologies, energy use must also be rapidly reduced – by at least 40%, as the IPCC SR1.5 report shows.

See below from Hickel & Kallis (2019) @jasonhickel @g_kallis

4/ But energy use is in fact rapidly increasing!

REDUCING energy use requires reductions in economic activity (production & consumption), calling for strategies of #degrowth and #sufficiency, as review studies by Haberl et al @DominikWiederhofer & @jasonhickel @g_kallis confirm.

5/ Summary of the evidence here:
Haberl et al (2020): tinyurl.com/46ovan9a
Hickel and Kallis (2019): tinyurl.com/4w26lghg
Not everyone may be familiar with degrowth or sufficiency strategies (which above studies conclude are needed), so here are 3 studies to give a flavour.

Millward-Hopkins et al (2020) show that pursuing sufficiency, equity, collective provisioning systems & technical efficiency could allow providing decent living standards for 10 billion people with 60% less energy use than today @JKSteinberger @yl_oswald
tinyurl.com/ychgfyd8

7/ D’Alessandro et al. (2020) model a degrowth scenario (vs a "green growth" scenario i.a.) and find that only the degrowth scenario is compatible with climate targets – and it also reduces inequality and unemployment. @SimoneDAlessa12 @cieplinski

tinyurl.com/i8tc96vq

8/ Mastini et al. (2020) explain that a Green New Deal worth the calling must abandon economic growth and instead adopt degrowth and sufficiency strategies that could provide equitable wellbeing in a sustainable way. @r_mastini @g_kallis @jasonhickel

tinyurl.com/1mlkb75m

9/ Finally, a few words on land use. Not my area of expertise, but at least two things are clear, based on figures from the IPCC special report on Climate change & land:

First, total greenhouse gas emissions from land use are also going UP.

END/ Second, agricultural production is going up rapidly, which is what drives most of the land use emissions increase.

To tackle land use emissions, we need to rapidly reduce production and consumption of meat & dairy, stop deforestation, reduce food waste, etc.

Let's go?

END +1/ oohps, forgot to add the last figure...