📢NEW PAPER📢
Vulnerability of livelihoods to GDP decline is a big problem, given secular stagnation, escalating crises & the need to reduce production/consumption to avert climate breakdown.
We show what creates this vulnerability & how to overcome it.
🧵
t.ly/rDZ2Q 1/ The vulnerability of livelihoods to GDP decline creates a dilemma.
Economic growth exacerbates climate breakdown [Vogel & Hickel, 2023]. But the ecologically necessary reductions in production/consumption may reduce GDP, which in the current system could undermine livelihoods.

NEW PAPER OUT in @TheLancetPlanet with @jasonhickel

❌ “Green growth” is NOT happening & NOT in reach in high-income countries

😮 Continued economic growth in high-income countries is at odds with the climate & equity targets of the Paris Agreement



🧵 t.ly/sBK7O
1/ Economic growth is understood to be the main driver of CO2 emissions, as IPCC states. Producing 11 units of something generates more emissions than producing 10 units of the same thing.

NEW PAPER #openaccess

To secure decent living standards for all while reducing global energy use to avert #climatebreakdown, governments need to:
↗️public services
↗️income equality
↘️extractive industries
❌economic growth in affluent countries

THREAD

bit.ly/2UdLn1I @JKSteinberger @DrDanONeill @lamb_wf @jasonhickel @g_kallis @GeorgeMonbiot @EricHolthaus @KevinClimate @ClimateHuman @GretaThunberg 1/ Averting catastrophic climate changes beyond 1.5 C global warming requires both rapid decarbonisation of energy systems AND rapid reductions in global energy use. This is now recognised at the highest levels, including the recent report by the International Energy Agency.

LEEDS LEADS CLIMATE BREAKDOWN

8 hours and 1000 flawed arguments and biased procedures later, Leeds City Plans Panel voted 9-5 for airport expansion and the false promises of economic growth.
For “what Leeds needs is a premier-league football club and a premier-league airport”
🧵 1/ There was a lot of "I do care about climate change, BUT" – followed by a lot of blah blah. Blah blah economic growth. Blah blah connectivity. Blah blah competitiveness. Blah blah Manchester. Blah blah Westminster. Blah blah offsetting. Blah blah electric planes. Blah blah blah

Despite COVID, emissions are still way too high.
To limit global warming to 1.5 C, we need to *rapidly*
(i) decarbonise energy use AND
(ii) reduce energy use AND
(iii) decarbonise land use AND
(iv) reduce land use
Yes, ALL of these things SIMULTANEOUSLY.
How are we doing?
THREAD 1/ To limit warming to 1.5 C, global energy use must be completely decarbonised.

But the opposite is happening! Emissions per unit of energy use (‘carbon intensity of energy’) have been INCREASING since 2000 (largely due to increases in the share of coal, primarily in China).

✈️Can Leeds meet its climate targets if Leeds City Council allows expansion of Leeds Bradford Airport (LBA)?

No.

Is LBA’s own climate impact assessment accurate?

No.

Here’s the latest evidence. I urge Leeds City Plans Panel to
read this and act on it conscientiously.

THREAD 2/ Leeds City Council has adopted a CO2 target for Leeds based on a CO2 budget in line with 66% chance of staying below 1.5 C (black dotted curve) and committed to work towards net-zero CO2 by 2030, roughly met by @LeedsClimateCom's net-zero 2033 trajectory (grey dotted curve).

Great to hear @Matthuber78 on @jacobinmag arguing that environment + class must be thought and tackled together!

Fully agreed - and one of the key goals and principles of Degrowth.

But then, why does Matt so blatantly misportray Degrowth?

Let’s put the record straight.

THREAD

https://twitter.com/jacobinmag/status/1327299537673867265

@Matthuber78 states that any environmental politics must secure people’s basic needs, strengthen the working class and tackle inequalities. Great, couldn't agree more!

But then why does Matt completely overlook the LONG list of Degrowth policies that do precisely that?

/2

@pauleastwd @JKSteinberger @jasonhickel @WIRED It's in the IPCC SR1.5C report, Fig. 2.5. Of the scenarios meeting 1.5C with no or little overshoot, only one doesn't heavily rely on negative emissions technologies: That one is the "Low Energy Demand" (LED) scenario, which indeed involves large reductions in energy demand. @pauleastwd @JKSteinberger @jasonhickel @WIRED The Low Energy Demand scenario is based on Grubler et al., 2018. nature.com/articles/s4156…