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Ben Hunt Profile picture
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7 Feb, 5 tweets, 2 min read
Depending on your assumptions re: Covid infection cycle (how many days from exposure until you infect someone new) my back of envelope calcs show an effective R-number in Florida between 1.9 and 2.2 for the B117 variant.

That is ... umm ... problematic.
We've written a lot on ET about the challenge posed by the Covid virus variants. Like our original Covid writings a year ago, we've been early and we've been right about the variants, too.

Here's our first note, from January 12.

epsilontheory.com/the-ireland-ev…
Here's the podcast on the Covid variants. Available on iTunes and Spotify, too.

epsilontheory.com/et-podcast-3-t…
Here's our second note on the Covid variants, from January 20th.

epsilontheory.com/uk-variant-sar…
And here's our most recent note on the Covid variants, focused on the S. African mutation 501.V2 from January 27th.

epsilontheory.com/the-zimbabwe-e…

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More from @EpsilonTheory

Ben Hunt Profile picture
30 Jan
We’ve started tracking the narrative structure of r/wallstreetbets.

Over an 8 hour period y’day, we tracked ~30,000 posts. Of those posts, 97% were removed by mods/filters. It’s all bots, all the time.

Once again, you’re being played.
BTW, you're also being played on Twitter. Me, too.

I used to think it was the quality of my tweets that drove my follower count going up or down. LOL. I can track almost to the hour when Twitter turns on or off their promotion algos for my stuff.
This isn't about bots or any individual mode of spoof.

It's about how ALL of social media has been successfully gamed by investment pros, is being successfully gamed by investment pros, and will be successfully gamed by investment pros.

Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.
Read 5 tweets
Ben Hunt Profile picture
14 Jan
In ET podcast #3, we discuss the spread of the UK-variant virus and the risk of an “Ireland Event” here in the US.

The time to act is NOW, not with lockdowns, but w/ air travel restrictions to contain the UK-variant while we accelerate vaccine delivery.

epsilontheory.com/et-podcast-3-t…
Available on iTunes:

podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the…
Available on Spotify:

open.spotify.com/show/3ZXOnreiG…
Read 4 tweets
Ben Hunt Profile picture
12 Jan
I believe there's a non-trivial chance the US will experience a rolling series of “Ireland events” over the next 45 days, where Covid cases explode exponentially in states where the UK-variant virus is established and behavioral Covid fatigue has set in.

epsilontheory.com/the-ireland-ev…
From the 1/10 WH Coronavirus Task Force report to governors, released to press yesterday, "full resurgence" of viral spread in "nearly all metro areas", "fall/winter surge has been at nearly twice the rate of rise of cases as the spring and summer surges."
cnn.com/2021/01/13/pol…
UK-variant SARS-CoV-2 strain now identified in 11 states.

Read 4 tweets
Ben Hunt Profile picture
24 Dec 20
A conversation with @brianportnoy, author of The Geometry of Wealth, about the role of money in shaping a life of meaning.

How do we give better advice about money to others … and to ourselves?

epsilontheory.com/et-podcast-2-p…
Yes, available on Apple Podcasts and iTunes!

podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the…
Yes, available on Spotify!

open.spotify.com/show/3ZXOnreiG…
Read 4 tweets
Ben Hunt Profile picture
20 Dec 20
"I decided"

Burn. It. The. Fuck. Down.
There's no parody like self-parody.
#BITFD
The only members of Congress who should get an early vaccine are the House Speaker & the Senate Prez pro tem.

There's zero "gov't continuity" or "vaccine PR" reason for the umpteenth pol to jump the line.

That includes Rubio and Graham. That includes AOC.
Read 4 tweets
Ben Hunt Profile picture
16 Dec 20
This tweet - "awkshually N95 mask production is a problem that goes back decades and so was unsolvable by the Trump administration" - pisses me off more than you can possibly imagine.

But NOT because it attacks me or defends the Clowner-in-Chief.
No, this pisses me off because it’s a perfect example of learned helplessness – golly, this is a big challenge with a long history that will require some tradeoffs and hard choices, and of course NO ONE can do that.

epsilontheory.com/the-endemic-mi…
Learned helplessness is the belief by ordinary citizens that change in the status quo is IMPOSSIBLE, even as 3,000 Americans die from Covid every day BECAUSE of that status quo.

And people ask me why I’m angry.
Read 4 tweets

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